Sports Spread Betting

Data Miner

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Hello folks,

My very first posting on t2w, so I'll try my hardest not to upset anyone (this time?)

I'm primarily a sports spread trader and have been for more than ten years now, having played my small part in seeing off the sports spread attempts from the likes of Ladbrokes, William Hill, City Index (well I was in profit with all of 'em when they closed their doors)

Pity there's not more about sports spread trading on here, why not? Where are all you sports traders? Or indeed are there any others, does the volatility scare you off?

It sure can be a roller coaster ride. Yesterday I sold racing SP spread at Worc, only for a 28/1 and a 33/1 winners to come home. Blew a hole in my wager from just 2 of the 7 races.

Still, win some lose some is what this game is all about.

Maybe my sells today of Bath & Warwick SPs, with a buy of Bath favourites spread may go some way in repairing the damage incurred at Worcester.

TTFN
 
Ouch,

Three out of three reversals, and a 115 point loss at my staking levels. Puts me into negative for the month too.

Even so, he hauls his not insignificant frame to the upright position, collects his trusty broadsword and stalks determinedly forward fully set for the next battle (at Leicester & Catterick tomorrow)

Ah, the up and down joys of spread betting.

Mmmmmmmmmm.
 
Hi data miner,

I have done a little bit of sport betting at binarybet.com. Have you ever try that and what is your experience. I used to do sport spread betting without a lot of success. But i am bit more successful with binary bets. I will be interested to hear you opinion form man of your experience.
 
Hi bizmanny,

Nice to hear from you. I have had no experience whatsoever with binary betting, but for no other reason than it was introduced at a period when I was well into my stride with traditional spreads. The similarities were such that I had no incentive or reason to change tack.

The basic principles are the same as tradition spread betting, so I can't see why you would be better or worse at one or the other. The difference is probably no more than coincidental - no one ever made a steady profit from betting or trading, periods of wins or losses are par for the course.

It would be an interesting excercise maybe to cross-check "what if" by comparing your binary trades alongside normal spread on the same market?
 
As if to emphasise the ups & downs of sports spreads (but likely just the same as almost any other trading) my current status is 7 losing days from the last 8.

Wonder if my sole trade today of selling Catterick SPs @ 62 will make it 8 losers from 9!!??!
 
Data Miner said:
Hi bizmanny,

Nice to hear from you. I have had no experience whatsoever with binary betting, but for no other reason than it was introduced at a period when I was well into my stride with traditional spreads. The similarities were such that I had no incentive or reason to change tack.

The basic principles are the same as tradition spread betting, so I can't see why you would be better or worse at one or the other. The difference is probably no more than coincidental - no one ever made a steady profit from betting or trading, periods of wins or losses are par for the course.

It would be an interesting excercise maybe to cross-check "what if" by comparing your binary trades alongside normal spread on the same market?

I guess there is not much difference. I think it depends on what style do you like. I hope you were luck on your 8th time out of 9. I suggest you should take a break for a while if you lost your 8 trade as well. Quality time to analyse what you are doing wrong or it is just bad luck. Goodluck.
 
I bet on selected football matches.

I only do so on live matches, ie those on which bets are allowed to be placed, adjusted or closed during play. The majority of my bets are closed before the match finishes, and are mostly opened with that intention in mind.

My most frequent position is a downbet on the time of the third goal. Not because I expect a third goal, but because the quotes for the third goal (and second goal) get revised shrply downwards (and can be then closed for a gain) when the first goal happens, and on g3 (rather than on g2 or g1) the quoted spread is relatively close to the maximum 90 minute level - so the potential loss is limited. A successful bet on g1 would often be far more profitable - but the opening quote on g1 is usually up to 60pts away from the 90, which means losses can also be huge.

In effect I am betting on the timing of g1, but using a g3 bet to do so.
If there are no goals, or if the first goal comes late, I lose. Overall my record so far is positive (ie more money won than lost) but this is largely thanks to being very picky as to which games I bet on.

I usually open with a tiny g3 downbet ahead of kickoff ( so as not to miss out in the event of a first-minute goal) but then gradually increase the stake as the quote improves with time, depending on how lively the game sounds on the radio.. To win I need a goal to ideally happen before about 35 minutes into the game. In yesterday's Everton-Liverpool game, I started with a tiny 10p stake on g3, and added 20p every few minutes. Because a goal sounded likely, I also opened a downbet on the time of g1, which is something I don't often do. By the time g1 went in (24th minute) my stake on g3 was 90p and on g1 was 70p. My g1 bet closed automatically, my g3 bet I closed manually, total win £20.30p

I stick to 'match goals' rather than specific team goals - to allow for the unpredictability of which team will score first. Even though the odds are less favourable. So I don't care which team scores first. (The term "goal scored against the run of play" crops up more often re the first goal than for later goals - and there's no telling when a ref will award a penalty or dangerous free kick, regardless of form).

I don't normally bet on who will win. But yesterday when Everton got their second goal, the spread quoted for a Liverpool win dropped to 2.5 - 3.5 (payout is 25pts for win, 10 for draw, nil for defeat) and i opened a small 50p upbet on Liverpool. Not because i expected them to come back and win, but because I figured they may well pull a goal back and this would likely shift the quote to a level worth cashing in at. The risk was I might lose 3.5pts, which i did. That lost me £1.75, so my overall profit on that game was £18.55

PP
 
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I’ve had 2 winning and 2 losing days since, and a bit more has disappeared from my bankroll..

What am I doing wrong?
Nothing really, the long term figures are good (or at least have been). I look at it this way, if a spread is 51-54 and I’ve got the figure nearer to 47 then I have a sell. If the final make-up is 100 then okay, I’m a loser this time, but nobody could foresee the big make-up, neither me nor the spread firm. Similar bets will on other occasions make-up substantially lower than both our estimates.

Even though we KNOW that drawing a single card from a deck of playing cards has a 50% chance of being red, we should also accept that drawing seven consecutive black cards from 7 fresh decks is just as likely as ANY other sequence. To beat the spreads all I need to ensure is that the mean average for similar situations is below their 51 quote

Is it bad luck?
Spread trading has peaks & troughs and I’m currently experiencing the latter. (If I knew WHEN these two occurred so I could avoid one and fully exploit the other, I’d be a very rich man) You have to ride such storms to benefit from the good times, bookmakers and spread firms alike get very rich from those who pull out too early. How many punters pull out in the middle of a winning streak? – very few, most who pull the plug do so when the bookie has their money.

What am I doing wrong? Or is it bad luck? I think neither, I’m spread betting and such things are to be expected.



bizmanny said:
I guess there is not much difference. I think it depends on what style do you like. I hope you were luck on your 8th time out of 9. I suggest you should take a break for a while if you lost your 8 trade as well. Quality time to analyse what you are doing wrong or it is just bad luck. Goodluck.
 
Excellent post PurplePerson.

Can see the logic in your tactics, but it is not one I would feel comfortable following for a couple of reasons.

Firstly I never bet on gut feelings - for me at any rate it is a betting graveyard. Maybe I’m just a crappy game reader, but all too often my emotions get the better of me. Everything I do is statistics based. Cold, clinical, unemotional and unbiased stats, I love ‘em.

Statistics are not swayed by personal bias, or how I’m feeling that day. Stats, unlike my personal opinion, can be analysed at a later date leaving me comfortable in the knowledge that the bottom line decision will remain constant, based as it was on a numerical assessment. I can never be certain my opinion stays constant, in fact I know it is affected by external influences.

Must admit on occasions I look at my statistics based predictions with some scepticism, thinking that can’t be right . . . sometimes I right too! But thankfully it proves me wrong more times than not.

You are putting a fair degree of trust in the radio commentator in your Everton v Liverpool example, aren’t you? Can you be sure that their view of proceedings is an accurate one? Does he favour one team above the other, etc.? Ask opposing fans after a 0-0 draw and they’ll probably both say their team should have won.

My second reason is this. Every time I’ve examined closing-early strategies I’ve found a better way (and by better I mean more profitable) by alternative means. One that doesn’t need to be closed early, paying the price of the spread twice.

Football is apparently sports spreads highest trade area, and as such they will be very good with their spread quotes. Every little edge helps as a punter, and closing early goes against the grain for me giving up those few spread points each time impacts on my bottom line.

As you point out, your bet is really one of selling the time of the first goal by another means. Have you tried comparing the two, side-by-side, on the same game? You might be pleasantly surprised. I know the downside of a losing trade is far higher, but it is in such circumstances where the spread bettor often has the long term edge. But of course the punter needs to be comfortable with his investment, and for many winning small and often is not sufficient recompense for the occasional big hitting loser. (a fact known only too well by the spread companies, which is why most spreads are pitched on the high side)

Good luck with your exploits, and don’t let anything I say put you off what works for you. In the end, winning is the name of the game, and by using that measure you’re tactics are better than mine over recent days. So, what do I know?



PurplePerson said:
I bet on selected football matches.

I only do so on live matches, ie those on which bets are allowed to be placed, adjusted or closed during play. The majority of my bets are closed before the match finishes, and are mostly opened with that intention in mind.

My most frequent position is a downbet on the time of the third goal. Not because I expect a third goal, but because the quotes for the third goal (and second goal) get revised shrply downwards (and can be then closed for a gain) when the first goal happens, and on g3 (rather than on g2 or g1) the quoted spread is relatively close to the maximum 90 minute level - so the potential loss is limited. A successful bet on g1 would often be far more profitable - but the opening quote on g1 is usually up to 60pts away from the 90, which means losses can also be huge.

In effect I am betting on the timing of g1, but using a g3 bet to do so.
If there are no goals, or if the first goal comes late, I lose. Overall my record so far is positive (ie more money won than lost) but this is largely thanks to being very picky as to which games I bet on.

I usually open with a tiny g3 downbet ahead of kickoff ( so as not to miss out in the event of a first-minute goal) but then gradually increase the stake as the quote improves with time, depending on how lively the game sounds on the radio.. To win I need a goal to ideally happen before about 35 minutes into the game. In yesterday's Everton-Liverpool game, I started with a tiny 10p stake on g3, and added 20p every few minutes. Because a goal sounded likely, I also opened a downbet on the time of g1, which is something I don't often do. By the time g1 went in (24th minute) my stake on g3 was 90p and on g1 was 70p. My g1 bet closed automatically, my g3 bet I closed manually, total win £20.30p

I stick to 'match goals' rather than specific team goals - to allow for the unpredictability of which team will score first. Even though the odds are less favourable. So I don't care which team scores first. (The term "goal scored against the run of play" crops up more often re the first goal than for later goals - and there's no telling when a ref will award a penalty or dangerous free kick, regardless of form).

I don't normally bet on who will win. But yesterday when Everton got their second goal, the spread quoted for a Liverpool win dropped to 2.5 - 3.5 (payout is 25pts for win, 10 for draw, nil for defeat) and i opened a small 50p upbet on Liverpool. Not because i expected them to come back and win, but because I figured they may well pull a goal back and this would likely shift the quote to a level worth cashing in at. The risk was I might lose 3.5pts, which i did. That lost me £1.75, so my overall profit on that game was £18.55

PP
 
Hi DM,

..You are putting a fair degree of trust in the radio commentator in your Everton v Liverpool example, aren’t you? Can you be sure that their view of proceedings is an accurate one? Does he favour one team above the other, etc.? Ask opposing fans after a 0-0 draw and they’ll probably both say their team should have won...
I don't have to worry about bias or accuracy. I don't care which team scores. All I need to pick up from the commentary is whether it's a lively game with goal attempts pinging off the woodwork and lots of corners - or a dull lifeless game.

..closing early goes against the grain for me giving up those few spread points each time impacts on my bottom line..
I find exactly the opposite - which is why I no longer bet on non-live games, in which one is stuck with a bet to the expiry of the match and must therefore rely almost entirely on initial prediction and initial odds.

..As you point out, your bet is really one of selling the time of the first goal by another means. Have you tried comparing the two, side-by-side, on the same game? You might be pleasantly surprised...
Yes, I spent the whole of last season 2005/06 testing alternative tactics side by side - which is how I ended up doing what I do now.

..don’t let anything I say put you off what works for you..
Don't worry - I won't ! :cool: We must each pursue whatever works for ourselves. But I do listen to all alternative views and observations and would be willing to test other tactics alongside the ones I use. (Mind you.. it is not unknown for agents of betting firms to frequent forums, disguised as friendly punters, while collecting commission for every new customer they steer towards some firm or other, or for advising bettors badly. That could be you or me or anyone..)

My tactic in banking early is very much one of accepting a bird-in-the-hand rather than gambling on there being a bigger bird in the bush.

PP :cool:
 
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PurplePerson said:
I don't have to worry about bias or accuracy. I don't care which team scores. All I need to pick up from the commentary is whether it's a lively game with goal attempts pinging off the woodwork and lots of corners - or a dull lifeless game.

Of course, I'm not paying attention am I? :eek: You're looking for goals to be scored, not bothered whose scoring them.


PurplePerson said:
Don't worry - I won't !

Didn't expect you to do either.


PurplePerson said:
My tactic in banking early is very much one of accepting a bird-in-the-hand rather than gambling on there being a bigger bird in the bush.

My philosophy is I attempt to predict the end result, so that's where my bet ends. So long as I do my homework in the first place, nothing should change to alter that pre-match view. (Having said that, I had trades at Thirsk last week where the going was stated as "good" everywhere, only for the meeting to be abandoned as waterlogged and heavy going - which would have had a big impact on my pre-meeting assessment had I known)

Anyway, if I've got your tactics right, with the W Ham v Aston Villa game today, with a goal in the 4th minute, if you'd have been spreading, you'd have closed your trade immediately afterwards (with the new spread) . . and probably no more betting, yes?
Know what? You could even convince me that there are situations where deliberate closing early tactics pay off!

DM -- [D]efinitely not a [M]ole ;)
 
..Anyway, if I've got your tactics right, with the W Ham v Aston Villa game today, with a goal in the 4th minute, if you'd have been spreading, you'd have closed your trade immediately afterwards (with the new spread) . . and probably no more betting, yes?..
Yep. And that's what I did, and banked a win. Unfortunately it was an embarassingly tiny one. I had placed my token prematch bet on g3 (just to make sure i was onboard in case of a very early goal) and, two minutes after kickoff, was attempting to increase my stake when my connection failed. Whilst reconnecting I heard the 4th minute goal on the radio - so I knew I had won the bet (as long as could get back online to cash it before the lowered quote started rising again), but was too late to make it a more worthwhile one!

It sounded like a game in which there might be more goals but I just banked my little win and left it alone.

PP
 
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Your system is interesting. How successful would you say percentage wise. Do you always listen to the radio for live game. I think you might miss i little bit of an edge compare to somebody who is watching it on the tv.

E.g you an see the way game goes and you can better predict gthe goal is gonna come sooner or later. Also who you watch it live you can see if strikes are fired up for it.

What is your experince.



PurplePerson said:
I bet on selected football matches.

I only do so on live matches, ie those on which bets are allowed to be placed, adjusted or closed during play. The majority of my bets are closed before the match finishes, and are mostly opened with that intention in mind.

My most frequent position is a downbet on the time of the third goal. Not because I expect a third goal, but because the quotes for the third goal (and second goal) get revised shrply downwards (and can be then closed for a gain) when the first goal happens, and on g3 (rather than on g2 or g1) the quoted spread is relatively close to the maximum 90 minute level - so the potential loss is limited. A successful bet on g1 would often be far more profitable - but the opening quote on g1 is usually up to 60pts away from the 90, which means losses can also be huge.

In effect I am betting on the timing of g1, but using a g3 bet to do so.
If there are no goals, or if the first goal comes late, I lose. Overall my record so far is positive (ie more money won than lost) but this is largely thanks to being very picky as to which games I bet on.

I usually open with a tiny g3 downbet ahead of kickoff ( so as not to miss out in the event of a first-minute goal) but then gradually increase the stake as the quote improves with time, depending on how lively the game sounds on the radio.. To win I need a goal to ideally happen before about 35 minutes into the game. In yesterday's Everton-Liverpool game, I started with a tiny 10p stake on g3, and added 20p every few minutes. Because a goal sounded likely, I also opened a downbet on the time of g1, which is something I don't often do. By the time g1 went in (24th minute) my stake on g3 was 90p and on g1 was 70p. My g1 bet closed automatically, my g3 bet I closed manually, total win £20.30p

I stick to 'match goals' rather than specific team goals - to allow for the unpredictability of which team will score first. Even though the odds are less favourable. So I don't care which team scores first. (The term "goal scored against the run of play" crops up more often re the first goal than for later goals - and there's no telling when a ref will award a penalty or dangerous free kick, regardless of form).

I don't normally bet on who will win. But yesterday when Everton got their second goal, the spread quoted for a Liverpool win dropped to 2.5 - 3.5 (payout is 25pts for win, 10 for draw, nil for defeat) and i opened a small 50p upbet on Liverpool. Not because i expected them to come back and win, but because I figured they may well pull a goal back and this would likely shift the quote to a level worth cashing in at. The risk was I might lose 3.5pts, which i did. That lost me £1.75, so my overall profit on that game was £18.55

PP
 
You have to ride such storms to benefit from the good times, bookmakers and spread firms alike get very rich from those who pull out too early. How many punters pull out in the middle of a winning streak? – very few, most who pull the plug do so when the bookie has their money.

If the game is very lively with a lot of incidents. Like fouls, cards, I think sometimes it is better to cash it early. But if is a bit dull i would agreed it will a worth to go all the way.

E.g if you bet time for second goal say bought at 51 and the now the spread is 81/84 with 5 minutes to go and there are two sending off plus a lot of foul committed would you still hold on to your position?
 
..How successful would you say percentage wise..
Hi Biz, depending how far back I take my sample, I win between two thirds and threequarters of my 'g3' bets. That's by number. By value the figure is between 55% and 60% (the variation again depends which time period I am sampling). But having satisfied myself (over more than a full season) that it works, i have now stopped logging and analysing performance data in such detail.

..Do you always listen to the radio for live game. I think you might miss i little bit of an edge compare to somebody who is watching it on the tv...
E.g you an see the way game goes and you can better predict gthe goal is gonna come sooner or later. Also who you watch it live you can see if strikes are fired up for it.
What is your experince...
I have only terrestial tv. The matches shown live on BBC1,2 and ITV are internationals and major cup fixtures, not Premiership or other UK league games. I am likely to be watching those anyway - whether I was betting or not. Although if there are several simultaneous international matches in progress, the one in view might not be the one I am betting on.

Betting is an adjunct to my watching and enjoying the match. I don't watch any match just to serve my betting.

And with radio, I can be out in the garden or doing other things. When a goal or other major incident occurs, the online betting list is initially suspended, then reappears with adjusted quotes. This can take half a minute or more, which gives me time to get to my pc screen and deal with whatever appears.

I do occasionally place other types of bet on football games. Though not often. These have included betting on the likelihood of a goal being disallowed. Some teams do have strikers whose habit of stabbing home everything that comes their way means they frequently have offside goals disallowed. Also where one of the teams is naive enough to fall for offside traps set by the more sophisticated team - as sometimes happens in World Cup fixtures where junior nations are involved.

PP

PS: Some days there are no fixtures I regard as worth betting on. Sometimes the best ones I find are in the lower leagues but only a few of these are live.
 
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Premiership match Reading v ManCity is the only UK game quoted live tonight on Spindex. They have the game fractionally in Reading's favour. Not that I would be betting on match result. I haven't decided whether there is any point betting at all on this one yet. About 8 games in tomorrow night's EUFA Cup schedule are quoted live and I will look at those later.

PP
 
Incidentally... just looking at the g3 quotes currently offered by Spindex for that Reading-ManCity game..

Third Match Goal is quoted 77-79 (which is fairly typical ahead of most games, and involves risking a 13pt loss at that price).

Third Reading Goal is 86-88
Third City goal 87-89

Again, this is quite typical. Unless the bookie is pricing it as a likely highscoring game, the g3 quotes per specific team will be pretty close to the 90 limit. So the risk here in betting downwards on both, and no goals occurring at all, is a loss of 7 points. Maybe worth a joke punt of a few pence on both (with a high likelihood of losing) and watching how this pans out. Were either team to score very early, their particular g3 quote would dive - possibly by enough to bank a profit that outweighs the very limited loss on the other.

Maybe..

PP

(I haven't tried this - so I don't know where is the cut-off at which first match goal becomes too late for it to work. I suspect it might be no more than about 10-12 minutes in - which in most matches will make this a losing bet)
 
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Tested that with 10p sell on each team's third goal. First goal came on 23 minutes (for Reading). Downward shift in Reading's third goal quote was not sufficient to make a profit, let alone swamp the loss on the third city goal bet. The bet I would usually make (g3 non team-specific) would have won 2 pts. (opening quote 77-79, closing price 72-75 at 24 minutes).

Closed out both bets for a 10p loss and 30p loss. (I know, I know - should have just let them run this time, bearing in mind we are talking in pence. Too late now). In the unlikely either team actually scores 3 goals, I will check what time/win)

PP
 
bizmanny said:
If the game is very lively with a lot of incidents. Like fouls, cards, I think sometimes it is better to cash it early. But if is a bit dull i would agreed it will a worth to go all the way.

E.g if you bet time for second goal say bought at 51 and the now the spread is 81/84 with 5 minutes to go and there are two sending off plus a lot of foul committed would you still hold on to your position?

I would hold yes.
By the time the above has happened the spread has moved to accommodate it, and, where circumstances are extreme as per 2 sendings off, etc., the spread firms KNOW that the bettors who have benefitted from the extremes will hold on, the only punters likely to be copping out are those who are seeing their losses spiral. With that in mind the spread boys move their spreads disproportionately to catch (and to penalise) those who will be closing early.

More often than not, when extreme deviations from the expected occur the spread firms cash in on the early closers by moving the spread too much. Those who hold on until the bitter end will usually fare better.

This is no reflection on PP's methodology, he's setting out with closing early in mind and is very aware of the bets downside. All my betting is based upon the end result and a closed spread make-up.

One final reason for my not closing early is I never bet on what I'm watching (or listening to), and I never watch what I've bet on. This tactic avoids the psychological roller-coaster ride.

DM
 
Final outcome on that Reading-ManCity match was 1-0.
Had I kept the two team-related downbets open till expiry, the loss would have been 80p, whereas closing early it was half that.

(Being a test ,this was only pence. Think of it in pounds for something more serious.)

Clearly not a tactic that is worthwhile. But worth the experiment just to prove it.

I found it interesting that my usual approach would have worked - albeit for a 2pt gain only. Though this is not a match that I considered good enough to do that.

Not had time yet to assess Tuesday night's EUFA Cup matches - and I'm likely to be busy tomorrow so might not be able to bet.

PP
 
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