Any Safe Soccer Betting Strategy ?

This is a discussion on Any Safe Soccer Betting Strategy ? within the Fixed Odds & Binary Betting forums, part of the Markets category; When I was first dabbling with Betfair, someone gave me some stern advice: trade, don't bet. To this date, I've ...

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Old Nov 15, 2012, 5:28pm   #33
 
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Re: Any Safe Soccer Betting Strategy ?

When I was first dabbling with Betfair, someone gave me some stern advice: trade, don't bet. To this date, I've never consistently made money betting (it may start off well but without any other knowledge and just doing it mechanically, things reverse and I end up back at square one - I've not taken wild punts but bets based on market observations; to date, after many, many ideas, I've never truly experienced success from betting).

My trading OTOH? Well, Betfair is a money tree.
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Old Nov 16, 2012, 7:37pm   #34
 
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Re: Any Safe Soccer Betting Strategy ?

theres loads of football betting strategies, all for free, all the stats are available, you just have to do a little bit of work (including a quick google seach) to pick & choose the market/match.

in play:
~back the 0-0 pre KO & lay after 15mins (time of 1st goal scored average is ~26mins in prem league)
~if theres only 1 goal in it, lay match odds (H, D, A) @1.1 or less & can green up @ corners (if good entry timing)
~ back pre match fave when go goal down (in 1st half) & green up when (if) they equalise
~ back fave @ <=1.3 pre match (or after 20mins when goalless) and green up after 1st goal

long term:
~teams who did well last season, or had a lot of low score draws, yet have had bad start to this season back them after 9-10 matches to move up table.

all of these can be hedged, i will hedge say backing the 0-0 after 5 mins of play with a correct score eg 1-1 (if the underdog scores first then this will shorten) or 2-0 if fave scores first. once you have a hedge on then even if theres a goal pre 15mins (time to green up) then you can trade out of it for profit. and most of the strats are palying probabailities, so you will need to do these week in/week out. not just once.

working out 'value' in the odds is a difficult thing to do, and which was my normal way of betting, however i have put quite a few value bets on recently which have just missed for 0 return, so i have decided to get back into the back & lay method (close out).

there have been so many times when league leaders at home, with unbeaten record, play chumps at foot of table and odds are approaching 20/1 for an away win. its a 2 horse race and that appears too long to me - anything can happen, yet they often have season long unbeaten @ home records, and rarely go a goal down. yet reading a long time ago about guys who will back odds on no matter what also made me consider the 'back a cert' method, harry findlay famous for odds on backs....he was backing federer every match @1.1 whilst i was laying him (his backs were for millions, mine for pocket money).....throughout the year Fed was at his peak and lost only a few matches. when someones on fire, even when they play crap, the opponents are beat before they walk on the court - finlay knew this, i kinda knew it but still tried to be contrary. i saw a lot of matches where players were on top v Fed throughout the first set & had plenty of break points but never capitalised, fed wld have one, win the set & it was game over.

its like trading though, its almost impossible to systemise it imo, so i have kinda combined the lot: look for value, bet small, green up early. look for certs, lump on, get out early if goes against.

all the strats need good MM skillz, which is the key, as per trading.

i am happy to give some more detail to strategies if people are interested (you can pay decent money for them), even if these were well known & used, the majority wld still lose. just like trading.
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Old Nov 16, 2012, 9:14pm   #35
 
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Re: Any Safe Soccer Betting Strategy ?

i have a book full of strats ,,some i paid for some i invented some i copied ,,,,all of which make money on the basis of small return on large investement ,,when you take a hit,, wich you will ,, it takes a wedge from your bank ,,so you build it up again slowly ,,then get ahead slowly and then take a hit again ,,im on betfair since 04 and have always traded football ,,,,my best advice would be ,,,,find a score that you think wont happen and build your trade around that ,,be it match odds under/overs or CS ,,,,read that again ,,find something you think wont happen ,,,evry1 thinks they can predict what will happen ,,thats why bookies exist and prosper,,do the opposite ,,then dutch trade and arb your way to profit ,,,sounds simple ,takes time ,costs money
good luck
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Old Nov 26, 2012, 6:25am   #36
 
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Re: Any Safe Soccer Betting Strategy ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NVP View Post
umm - safest bet is dont bet at all

N
True ...LOL... couldn't agree with that. Going back to the Q, the thing is you need to engage in betting before learning the punts. Or if you want to know - read and observe - or if you're brave enough, test what you read. It all comes down to experience though than being said by someone.
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Old Nov 26, 2012, 9:06am   #37
 
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Re: Any Safe Soccer Betting Strategy ?

I also look at sports betting and there are ways of making money using the exchanges,but again it is a long term discipline just like trading.If you can succeed at sports betting you should be able to trade and vice versa. Ill tell you one of the strategies I use but not on which market as I dont want competition and it took me ages to work out the % and how to exploit them.

ok lets say I do it on horse racing. I look at all the bet comparison sites and look for a horse that is bigger on betfair than on all the bookies. Now of course most horses are bigger.so I look for a certain % and type of race. I then place win bets on that horse.
its like a reverse arbitrage. I then lay off at a better price when the bookies have started to lay of their money which they will via the exchanges just before the off.
There are lots of arbitrage players in the market and it is now hard to succeed,so I just reversed it.
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Old Nov 26, 2012, 10:18am   #38
 
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Re: Any Safe Soccer Betting Strategy ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Flasheart View Post
I then lay off at a better price when the bookies have started to lay of their money which they will via the exchanges just before the off.
There are lots of arbitrage players in the market and it is now hard to succeed,so I just reversed it.
can you explain exactly what the bookies are laying off?

bookies pay out less than they receive, if they have the book balanced correctly then they dont need to lay anything off with betfair, or any other exchange, the money is made before the race has started ie the book odds they offered are less than 1 ( in running odds will work on the same principle) yet they take bets totalling 1 - the difference is their 'fee'. if there is an arb (reverse or otherwise) opportunity i doubt you are taking advantage of it, as it will happen so irregularly.

(i assume by 'bigger' you meant longer.)
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Old Nov 26, 2012, 2:56pm   #39
 
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Re: Any Safe Soccer Betting Strategy ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rsh01 View Post
can you explain exactly what the bookies are laying off?

bookies pay out less than they receive, if they have the book balanced correctly then they dont need to lay anything off with betfair, or any other exchange, the money is made before the race has started ie the book odds they offered are less than 1 ( in running odds will work on the same principle) yet they take bets totalling 1 - the difference is their 'fee'. if there is an arb (reverse or otherwise) opportunity i doubt you are taking advantage of it, as it will happen so irregularly.

(i assume by 'bigger' you meant longer.)
thats in an ideal world,with so many bookies around and exchanges the chances of having a balanced 1--% book is unlikely. They all have exchange accounts which they use to balance their books. Think of it this way,wouldnt you. you lay 2/1 all day long and if need be can always back at 2.2/1 on the exchanges. lots of bookies now lay special bets and offers,do you think these offers are from the kindness of their hearts,they are offering something they can balance. The opportunities are often their ill try and explain again but i will use cricket as my example this time

england to win with hills 2.2
bet fred 2.3
lads 2.1
corals 2.0
sportbet 2.4
BETFAIR 2.8

I will look to back england on betfair at 2.8 and above well in advance and hope to get a good wack on,in region of 1k at least. not all of the money will get taken and sometimes none of it as the difference can often soon be swallowed up to make the book closer. Closer to the off time I will lay off and make a profit as some the bookies will now be looking to balance their book on a market that had an imbalance as the betfair % was too far ahead. If the betfair price was 2.6 i wouldnt bother as it is too close to the bookies price. Untill betfair came along the bookies would often be ab le to run a 90% book on any event,thats payout £90 for every £100 taken,nowadays they have to be a lot smarter. This does not work on markets such as horses or inplay
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Old Jun 17, 2013, 1:31pm   #40
 
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Re: Any Safe Soccer Betting Strategy ?

Read through this thread it's interesting. I went through test period of laying the draw and laying over 2.5 and greening up after 10 - 15 mins or after a goal on laying the draw. I was doing it with small stakes it worked ok I didn't see it out for long enough as I was also betting at the time so any money I was making on Trading I was losing betting.

I am going to start paper trading a few ideas just on any football thats on pre season. Once I get a strategy together I will trade for real and not bet. It's been a while since anyone posted in here so any recent strategies people want to share I would love to hear.

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