Re: Essentials Of 'First Steps'
You make a lot of very good points, Tim. (I have tried starting a new thread for another discussion and it says I do not have permission. Can anyone offer advice as to how I can/why I cannot?)
Good writing and philosophy. You're dishing out good nuggets for new traders to embrace. I'd like to comment on your opinion on "gut instinct" and just point out a benign contradiction with what you said yourself: "Nothing works for everybody, and everything works for somebody." I'm sure is is all just wording and semantics, but I mean, what if that "gut instinct" is based on calm and rational decisions?
I realize the point you're making, and you're right, if I'm right about your point; watch the charts and try to take a guess as to where price is going and you will be astonished with how often you are completely wrong - no, I said that wrong. I meant to say, "you will be astonished with how often you take a loss." But that goes to the old adage you've advocated very well: "plan your trade and trade your plan." Just because you are in the red at the moment does not necessarily mean you were wrong. How many of us have taken our loss and the market magically started going our direction?
But to get back on topic, since I've been staring and staring at my charts for years on end, sometimes 80 hours a day (feels like, especially while in a position), I feel I have uncanny intuition, or "gut-feelings" right down to when the bid/ask will change and in what direction. While I do not trade based on that, I have found, through actually "tracking" my gut instinct, which I encourage all new traders do, that it would have been in my service if I had actually "listened to my gut," which refines itself more and more.
Through my personal "gut instinct" research I have come to find that, in my case, there are characteristic emotions I feel when I'm correct. When I say "correct" I don't mean the "trade" is correct, but whether I will win it or lose it. We all know it when we're hoping against hope in a hopeless trade, even before we're stopped out, and I think it would be good to learn to listen to that emotion. So if we learn to recognize those "characteristic emotions" I think we have a very powerful, and inimitable tool at our disposal, but this brings me to another point.
And I believe it helps explain why people "do so well in demo and then crash and burn live." It's called desire. Maybe we can start a whole new thread as to why, but most have trouble making money on the markets because they want to make money. I have a theory that if the were incentive to lose all of our money, it would be easy to make: if you tell a man who has never traded before that you will cut off his fingers if he does not lose all of his money on the markets in a week, he'd triple his account in 3 days. Just a theory. |