Beginners should risk only 0.25 % per trade

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Old Aug 13, 2017, 1:00pm   #1
Joined Apr 2017
Beginners should risk only 0.25 % per trade

We should all know the 2% rule. Devised by Dr Alex Elder. Says capital risked per trade should be not more than 2% of your total account.The 2 % is fine for experienced and skilled traders ,but IMHO average traders should not risk more than 0.5 % per trade.

Many new traders will have a untested system/method and will be moving from method to method , until they find their comfort zone.During this learning curve , they will make a lot of mistakes , these mistakes will be additional losses , in addition to the system losses .If a method has a draw down period of 15 losses, the beginner will probably have 30 to 40 losses.

If a novice risks 2% per trade ,40 losses will amount to 80% of account.If the novice risks 0.25 % per trade , 40 losses will amount to 10 % of the equity loss .So this is sound figure to risk.

To learn about traders and mistakes , I opened a thread explaining why mistakes make losing traders .Most traders are taught to trade 2 % risk , it is poor advice in books .The best psychology threads in psychology and risk section in this forum , will also explain why wrong trading psyche can increase the number of losses for novices .

This is a great thread to read

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/firs...important.html

http://www.trade2win.com/articles/14...isk-management

Hopefully this post for new traders has given those who are novices, an approach to think of risk and how much to risk.

If novice manage risk soundly , they can survive the markets , when wining trades come their way.
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Old Aug 13, 2017, 2:16pm   #2
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
We should all know the 2% rule. Devised by Dr Alex Elder. Says capital risked per trade should be not more than 2% of your total account.The 2 % is fine for experienced and skilled traders ,but IMHO average traders should not risk more than 0.5 % per trade.

Many new traders will have a untested system/method and will be moving from method to method , until they find their comfort zone.During this learning curve , they will make a lot of mistakes , these mistakes will be additional losses , in addition to the system losses .If a method has a draw down period of 15 losses, the beginner will probably have 30 to 40 losses.

If a novice risks 2% per trade ,40 losses will amount to 80% of account.If the novice risks 0.25 % per trade , 40 losses will amount to 10 % of the equity loss .So this is sound figure to risk.

To learn about traders and mistakes , I opened a thread explaining why mistakes make losing traders .Most traders are taught to trade 2 % risk , it is poor advice in books .The best psychology threads in psychology and risk section in this forum , will also explain why wrong trading psyche can increase the number of losses for novices .

This is a great thread to read

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/firs...important.html

http://www.trade2win.com/articles/14...isk-management

Hopefully this post for new traders has given those who are novices, an approach to think of risk and how much to risk.

If novice manage risk soundly , they can survive the markets , when wining trades come their way.
Just a few pointers, because I have spend time researching this...

2% is absolutely arbitrary number, every trader should run betting size optimizations to find what is going to work best for his trading strategy (maximizing profits is the ultimate goal) - good stating point is the Kelly formula.

If you are using % for risk management, you'll never run out of money, because the amount will go down as your account goes down as well, so the following statement is not correct:

"If a novice risks 2% per trade ,40 losses will amount to 80% of account."

The novice trader should not trade live money at all until he has a robust trading strategy, do all the experiments and modelling with back testing once you have everything ready then you'll can start trading (and this will give you the confidence and take care of all mental mambo jumbo, the novice traders are so concerned about... )
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My number 1 trading rule: EDUCATE YOURSELF!

Before you trade even single penny on the stock market, please spend the time and educate yourself by back testing different trading strategies and ideas - go to eBay and search for "historical stock market data", you can buy 20 years of data for less than $100 - that's all you need to start.
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Old Aug 13, 2017, 2:20pm   #3
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foroom lluzers started this thread
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Originally Posted by Quantt View Post
If you are using % for risk management, you'll never run out of money, because the amount will go down as your account goes down as well, so the following statement is not correct:

"If a novice risks 2% per trade ,40 losses will amount to 80% of account."
I know this , it gives a rough idea of losses .
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Old Aug 13, 2017, 3:32pm   #4
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
I know this , it gives a rough idea of losses .
Hey man, sorry, my statement didn't came out as intended, I just wanted to clarify few point on your great post - hope the new traders will read it and most importantly think about it, before putting (losing) money on the line... Cheers!
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"If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die." Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

My number 1 trading rule: EDUCATE YOURSELF!

Before you trade even single penny on the stock market, please spend the time and educate yourself by back testing different trading strategies and ideas - go to eBay and search for "historical stock market data", you can buy 20 years of data for less than $100 - that's all you need to start.
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Old Aug 13, 2017, 4:36pm   #5
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Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
I know this , it gives a rough idea of losses .
If ~65% (the actual drawdown for your scenario) was even remotely close to 80%, I would be a millionaire by now. I agree with the intent of your post, but really even the 0.5% is completely arbitrary and not useful in my opinion. The amount you risk should in my opinion depend on factors including:

- How confident you are in your system --> should be based on backtesting and subsequent preliminary live testing.

- How much the market can accept without destroying the intent of your system. --> It is useless to size your position for an arbitrary risk value if your initial live results suggest that a certain size position reduces the strategy effectiveness. This is quite difficult to assess, but the very act of putting yourself into the market alters your strategy slightly. The point is to size your position to make this alteration insignificant. For example, it probably doesn't make sense to try and push a 1500 limit order through when the bid and ask volume is at 100 each.

- The frequency you make trades. If you make 20 trades a day, risking even 0.5% each trade may be foolish as that essentially puts ~9.5% of your account at risk each day.

- The size of your account and how much of it you can lose without impacting you. I typically only risk 0.25% or less per trade on untested systems. Really the size is determined from the expected drawdown of the system from backtests and the percent of my account I am ok with risking on the expected drawdown. So different systems may have different values.

As you can see, in my opinion there is no one magic number.
-
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Old Aug 13, 2017, 5:13pm   #6
 
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More important than what you believe you're risking is your size imo.
A trader could be long dax with a stop at -10pts / -1% of their acc, XYZ occurs and the stop gets yumped and filled at -150 / -15%.
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Old Aug 13, 2017, 5:28pm   #7
 
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Always hedge it with pork bellies.
Click the image to open in full size.
if you really drop a large bollock just hide it like F/L
You can then make 10 here and 5 there and hide ya 200 tic loss
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Old Aug 13, 2017, 5:35pm   #8
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Actually foroom has stopped hiding his loss. He shows the loss and then calls it a win.
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