Hello All

dango

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Looks like you got me with the Sticky Notes. Whoa! OK I know you said not to be intimidated but after 3 hours on the plan my head hurts. :cry:
So I may be in the wrong place as well. I'm in the US, retired, going in real low $ and thought Day Trading was the thing. After all the notes I know now swing is best I can manage on DOW and NASDAQ. I think I'll try Scottrade (not trying to break rules here they just seem least expensive per trade and get good reviews for tools).
I've also been to Investopedia for instruction but found the plan pins me down and hopefully I can get it working on paper trades.
So Hello to All and please don't mind me lurking about for hints.
 
Well then here's a hint for the both of ya :)! Read the attachment, might shine some light on your questions! Have fun trading!
 

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  • What about Technical Analysis.pdf
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Stirf there are so many things wrong with that .pdf attachment. Why do you keep posting it around the forum? It neither proves or disproves anything, and generally argues its case very badly.
 
Stirf there are so many things wrong with that .pdf attachment. Why do you keep posting it around the forum? It neither proves or disproves anything, and generally argues its case very badly.

Maybe you should leave it up to everyone for themselves to decide whether it's wrong or not. Same goes for letting others decide for themselves if it argues it's case very badly or not.
 
Same goes for letting others decide for themselves.
I spent five minutes reading it and it is five minutes I'll never get back, what a load of **** it is, TA makes things easier to see sometimes rather than going however long into the past to see where the support resistance areas are and such, as TA is anything from a trend line to a bloody flag or whatever, TA and trade management rock, you fool
 
Quote from this CNBC article: http://www.cnbc.com/id/44128950
"The S&P 500, which had blasted through all sorts of technical levels, finished the week at 1171, a loss of 1.7 percent". Lines in a chart drawn afterwards. What is a trendline? A line that connects points A, B, C, etc. drawn afterwards. Good call by the TA's! Unfortunately I should have known about that trend at point A so could have gotten in. Anyways...

Second quote:"RBS currency strategist Robert Sinche, in a note, points out that the S&P touched 1101.54 just below 1101.73, the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the entire rally since March, 2009". Ah, the famous fibonacci levels... There are 3 of those levels (0.618, 0.5 and 0.382). So there is probably always a bus stop where the price holds:cheesy:. Besides that you can pick your own "high" when drawing them! This guy took the high from the march 9 rally. You can take this years high or the all time high from 2007 or, or... And all the TA's go:"see, see!! I told you the level will hold"! Yep... TA, gotta admit they got a hell of a marketing unit!

I wont lower myself to start calling others names. I simply rest my case, not worth the effort:sleep:.
 
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read the attachment, seems to discount that all TA is useless....i guess its a widely held school of thought, probably agree that there is no totally true system/indicator that can predict the mkt 100% but as TA is a widely held area of studying the mkts i believe it can be a self fulfilling prophecy.
 
read the attachment, seems to discount that all TA is useless....i guess its a widely held school of thought, probably agree that there is no totally true system/indicator that can predict the mkt 100% but as TA is a widely held area of studying the mkts i believe it can be a self fulfilling prophecy.

Yeah I understand your thoughts about the self fulfilling prophecy. It was the last bit I thought was real about TA... But then I wondered if there are like a billion opportunities for your chart settings (as mentioned in the attachment) that means everybody sees something different. Then who is leading the whole herd in the same direction?

It must be someone with great exposure to the public, some analyst on bloomberg or CNBC or... But those guys look at long term charts and talk about support and resistance levels which are, when looking at the chart of a day trader miles apart! So lets assume for the sake of the discussion that the long indicators indeed have some sort of value. What good are they to short term day traders?

On the same subject, what is long term? Analysts talk about a head & shoulders pattern in the S&P these days. But have a look at this chart (attachment) in the top right corner. It's an S&P chart over 105 years. If you want, you can actually see a reversed H&S pattern... What's it gonna be...:rolleyes:
 
you do raise some good points. in regards to who is leading the herd in the same direction, certainly the forex is so large that no one individual organisation/individual can move it that much as to lead the herd and its impartiality is one of the reasons why i prefer forex over stocks. i do believe in self fulfilling prophecy as the price and its movement is a culmination of millions of traders views and their views are gleaned from millions/billions of different combinations of indicator setups/trade perceptions.

i agree that indicators with long term period settings i.e. simple moving averages would not perhaps be as beneficial as short term exponential moving averages to a day trader.

there is also the thought of round numbers as well, the perception of whole numbers seemingly provides some natural sup/res levels for traders even tho these whole numbers may not be relevant at all. the mere fact that enough traders look to enter trades or take profits at these levels means it should be taken into account, even for a day trader.

from a TA perspective, its a school of thought but certainly a school that many traders use in their trading so therefore whilst each individual trader has their own settings and perceptions as to whether that indicator shows 'bull' or 'bear' if enough traders have that perception price bias would exist to the upside/downside and it would self fulfill.

classic example is today on eur/usd. on the chart attachment the top horizontal dotted line is a key daily resistance level, upon breaking it, the pair broke out on the upside.

whilst i do agree that everyone sees charts and indicators and interpret them in different ways, i do not discount that TA is an important tool in making a trading decision be it right or wrong.

im a noob btw, so take what i say with a pinch of salt but its just my thoughts on things.
 

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you do raise some good points. in regards to who is leading the herd in the same direction, ...

... whilst i do agree that everyone sees charts and indicators and interpret them in different ways, i do not discount that TA is an important tool in making a trading decision be it right or wrong.

im a noob btw, so take what i say with a pinch of salt but its just my thoughts on things.

Thanks I have my moments ;) You know in my opinion this forum is about exchanging ideas, listening and learning. And as long we can have a civilized exchange of info I'm all for it! I stopped wanting to be right a long time ago. I think it's one of the key elements you need to set aside if you want to succeed in day trading. Because you're gonna be wrong very often :)! But when I read some posts on this forum, I read a lot of anger and frustration. Now I wonder... Could it be from not getting the results people are hoping for... Hoping and wishing is what they do in fairy tales.

But back to the subject. Yep I only trade futures and mainly forex as well. And yes I saw the move in the €/$ today. Skipped two or three entries this morning because of low volume, would have been small losses, but missed my entry today @ 1.4309 and would have ben stopped out by my trail @ 1.4437 You miss out on the winners on some days, just like you miss out on the losers on other days.

Yeah there is indeed talk about round numbers. But what is the definition of round numbers? Is it e.g. 1.30, 1.40, 1.50 etc in the €/$ or are numbers like 1.3100, 1.4200 and 1.5500 the round numbers? Or are there even more possibilities? I seriously wouldn't know :|

And about today's example in your chart. You'll be surprised that I can show you just as many examples that did work as the ones that didn't work. Eventhough price broke out on the upside or downside...

I fully agree with you that TA is an important tool in decision making for many traders. I mean it helps a lot if you can say e.g.:"ah my MACD shows me I need to enter a long position at this moment". Rather than:"f*ck I have totally nothing that shows me what to do" at that very same moment". Though the outcome of both trades will be exactly
the same (it's not that entering on the basis of TA at the same price and at the same moment gives you a better result than that same entry on the basis of nothing) the moment of entry is more easy, because you have something to hold on to!

So TA has a lot to do with the mental issues involved in trading and little or nothing with predicting future price development. Unfortunately it is widely used for the second reason and that's why around 99% of all vendors are teaching you to trade on the basis of TA. Newbie's think:"ah when I learn how to read TA, I'm gonna make profits in the markets". And that's why 90% of all day traders fail. The few that succeed learned to let go of TA to some sort of extent before they run out of cash. The 90% that failed would have been much better off with a 6 to 12 months mental training. That doesn't mean that they will automatically all succeed, but I believe the succes rate will be much higher.

Just google "day trading strategy" and you'll find tens to hundres of vendors who will teach you how to trade based on TA. Now I wonder is it that all those that want to learn how to trade can't find one of these vendors? Or is it that what these vendors are actually selling is complete crap? If these vendors were actually able to teach you how to trade based on TA the success rate would be much higher then that 10%

And since TA is being put in the market as the "future price predictor" I think it is one the biggest frauds on the planet with the absolute most brilliant marketing unit behind it :LOL:!!

But as I said in the beginning, this is just my opinion and I'm not telling anyone to say that I'm right (or wrong). Everybody is free to use the info to his own advantage ;)!
 
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Strif & et al,

Thanks for the input. I've made several paper trades and lost %12. How can Hong Kong Shanghai Bank fall when they lay off thousands and the US economy is tankng? Asia bank should do well right?
Buzzzzzzzzzzzzz! Wrong answer. So I think I'll try a specific area/industry and focus on 4 or 5 companies. See if i can get into black on paper before I dip my wick.
 
Strif & et al,

Thanks for the input. I've made several paper trades and lost %12. How can Hong Kong Shanghai Bank fall when they lay off thousands and the US economy is tankng? Asia bank should do well right?
Buzzzzzzzzzzzzz! Wrong answer. So I think I'll try a specific area/industry and focus on 4 or 5 companies. See if i can get into black on paper before I dip my wick.

You're welcome!

"How can HSBS fall when"... Accept that markets move at random, that goes for individual shares as well. And apply the limit your losses and let your profits run principle.
"Asia Bank should do well right"?... The market will tell you in the coming days/weeks.

Have fune (y)!!
 
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