http://www.trade2win.com/boards/ Topics ranging from dividend yields to global economic forecasts. en Fri, 20 Nov 2009 23:03:04 GMT vBulletin 60 http://www.trade2win.com/boards/images/misc/rss.jpg http://www.trade2win.com/boards/ http://www.trade2win.com/boards/economic-fundamental-analysis/79480-bund-reaction-u-s-trade-deficit.html Sun, 15 Nov 2009 11:28:42 GMT Any fixed income specialists out there might be able to dissect this one? U.S trade numbers came out fri a lot worse than the predicted figure (-$36 mill on -$31 mill predicted i think) Now, i was watching the Bund ladder and instead of ticking up it shot down (i assume following the US 10 yr... Any fixed income specialists out there might be able to dissect this one?

U.S trade numbers came out fri a lot worse than the predicted figure (-$36 mill on -$31 mill predicted i think)

Now, i was watching the Bund ladder and instead of ticking up it shot down (i assume following the US 10 yr but wasnt watching this)?

Can anyone tell me why there was this immediate sell off on the back of what should have been bullish news for bonds?

Thanks in advance ]]> Yatman1 http://www.trade2win.com/boards/economic-fundamental-analysis/79480-bund-reaction-u-s-trade-deficit.html http://www.trade2win.com/boards/economic-fundamental-analysis/79284-jobless-claims-question.html Thu, 12 Nov 2009 03:17:09 GMT In October, about 2 million Americans filed for jobless claims for the first time, but the gov. said "the number of unemployed persons increased by 558,000 in October". Anyone wants to explain why only 500k but not 2mil people became unemployed in October? Thanks. ]]> whininguser http://www.trade2win.com/boards/economic-fundamental-analysis/79284-jobless-claims-question.html http://www.trade2win.com/boards/economic-fundamental-analysis/77562-bank-failures-hit-106-year-another-415-risk.html Sun, 25 Oct 2009 09:24:17 GMT It's a big number that only tells part of the story. The number of banks that have failed so far this year topped 100 on Friday — hitting 106 by the end of the day — the most in nearly two decades. But the trouble in the banking system from bad loans and the recession goes even deeper.

Dozens, perhaps hundreds, of other banks remain open even though they are as weak as many that have been shuttered. Regulators are seizing banks slowly and selectively — partly to avoid inciting panic and partly because buyers for bad banks are hard to find.

Going slow buys time. An economic recovery could save some banks that would otherwise go under. But if the recovery is slow and smaller banks' finances get even worse, it could wind up costing even more.

This year's 106 bank failures are the most in any year since 181 collapsed in 1992 at the end of the savings-and-loan crisis. On Friday, regulators took over three small Florida banks — Partners Bank and Hillcrest Bank Florida, both of Naples, and Flagship National Bank in Bradenton — along with four elsewhere: American United Bank of Lawrenceville, Ga., Bank of Elmwood in Racine, Wis., Riverview Community Bank in Otsego, Minn., and First Dupage Bank in Westmont, Ill.

When a bank fails, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. swoops in, usually on a Friday afternoon. It tries to sell off the bank's assets to buyers and cover its liabilities, primarily customer deposits. It taps the insurance fund to cover the rest.

Bank failures have cost the FDIC's fund that insures deposits an estimated $25 billion this year and are expected to cost $100 billion through 2013. To replenish the fund, the agency wants banks to pay in advance $45 billion in premiums that would have been due over the next three years.

The FDIC won't say how deep a hole its deposit insurance fund is in. It can tap a credit line from the Treasury of up to a half-trillion dollars to cover the gap.

The list of banks in trouble is getting longer. At the end of June, the FDIC had flagged 416 as being at risk of failure, up from 305 at the end of March and 252 at the beginning of the year.

Yet the pace of actual bank failures appears to be slowing. The FDIC seized 24 banks in July, 11 in September and 11 in October.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...KA2YgD9BHC16O3 ]]> Black Swan http://www.trade2win.com/boards/economic-fundamental-analysis/77562-bank-failures-hit-106-year-another-415-risk.html http://www.trade2win.com/boards/economic-fundamental-analysis/77274-real-bull-next-asset-bubble.html Thu, 22 Oct 2009 01:15:40 GMT Often most bull markets are due to a decline in the fed funds rate; the interest rate that the Federal Reserve Bank charges other large institutions for overnight lending. Obviously this has a major influence on the money supply. The lower the rate, the easier credit should be, and the more... Often most bull markets are due to a decline in the fed funds rate; the interest rate that the Federal Reserve Bank charges other large institutions for overnight lending. Obviously this has a major influence on the money supply. The lower the rate, the easier credit should be, and the more money is in the system. In 1980 and 1981 these rates fluctuated from 10%-19% respectively. This a major crimp on the economy. When the so-called bull market began in 1982 many gave most of the credit to the then President Ronald Reagan and his so-called trickle down economics policy. While tax cuts are always a stimulus for the market it is really the low Fed Funds rate set by the Federal Reserve Bank that gives the huge rise in asset prices. Throughout the Reagan era the feds funds rate went from around 19.00% at one point down below 6.00% in 1986. Yes, the bull was running as the easy credit flowed and the DJIA had advanced from 817 in April 1980 to 2596 in September 1987. This was a run for the ages; however, there was a major crash and panic in 1987.


Now lets fast forward to the roaring 1990's. The markets again faced a declining housing market in the late 1988 throughout the early 1990's. There was a recession taking place and a new President was elected. It's always about the economy when it comes to Presidents and this time a second birth of the bull began. The fed funds rate was steadily kept around 5.00-5.50 % and the market continued to climb. In 1999 the rate was decreased to less than 5.00% and the bull market advance was a run for the ages as the DJIA crossed over the 11,000 level. Then as we all know in 2000 the great bear awoke as the stock market began a 2.5 year decline as the Dow lost 4700 points from peak to trough.


In 2003, the Fed funds rate was lowered to 1.00 %, this was really uncharted waters from the Federal Reserve Bank. Again a new President was elected, taxes were cut and this gave birth to one of the greatest bubbles in American history. It has been called the great housing and credit bubble of the new millennium. Even as the former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan increased rates by a quarter point at every FOMC meeting beginning in 2004 and continued to do this until 2006 when the fed funds rate was as high as 5.25%. As we all know in October 2007 the great collapse began as the DJIA peaked at 14,200. Since that top the fed funds rate has steadily been lowered to the current 0 - 0.25% rate.


As of now the low rate and massive global stimulus has rallied the markets over 50% from the March 2009 low. However, this has come with a cost as the U.S. Dollar is near its 2008 lows and commodity prices have soared recently. The last time the dollar was this low oil was at $147 a barrel and that certainly was a factor to the major break in the market. The big question now is going to be what does the Federal Reserve Bank do for an encore? The fed funds rate obviously cannot go any lower. Therefore, the plan they have must be simply to inflate this market back to health. One can only ask why would they want to do that? Wouldn't this just be doing exactly what was done to create the original problem? There can only be one answer, and that is to attempt to fight deflation. The recent breakout of gold is telling us that they will inflate at all costs. The only real currency that the world has ever known (gold) does not lie. When you really think about it the market has had a huge rally off it's March lows and so has gold. The only problem with this rally is that since the U.S. Dollar has fallen so much what have you really made in the market? Gold right now is the better trade over the DJIA.


Can the Fed really bail us out of the possible deflationary spiral that has plagued Japan since the late 1980's? Only time will tell. The one thing we all know is that the fed funds rates can't stay at zero forever. What are they to do for an encore? Perhaps they may buy gold to protect their own accounts. This is surely going to be a volatile decade ahead of us.



Nicholas Santiago,
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks - Technical Analysis Trading | Stock Market Chat Room | Learn to Trade ]]> InTheMoneyStocks http://www.trade2win.com/boards/economic-fundamental-analysis/77274-real-bull-next-asset-bubble.html