Payroll Turd Polishing

This is a discussion on Payroll Turd Polishing within the Economic & Fundamental Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; bracke do you live in Stepford?...

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Old Apr 6, 2004, 3:53pm   #31
 
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zigglewigler started this thread bracke
do you live in Stepford?
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Old Apr 6, 2004, 4:08pm   #32
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zigglewigler

There you go again with your radical thoughts, not to worry, you'll
feel a lot better if you keep reminding yourself NEW realism, good old realism bad and whilst your at it get yourself a good chunk of consumer debt it'll work wonders for your perception.

Regards

bracke
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Old Apr 6, 2004, 5:15pm   #33
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Consumer Debt - thats another thing that winds me up.

When Im at the bar trying to get the beers in, why o why are all the chicks always paying with their plastic?? Its a round of drinks for crying out loud love! Whats wrong with cash??? Its quicker for a start which means I can continue binge drinking during the archaic hours imposed on me alreasbfggubhg;iash.

[EDITORS NOTE - Unfortunately BBB has died in mid post after blowing a gasket in pure rage over the tiny things in life that he really shouldn't have let bother him]

R.I.P.
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Old Apr 6, 2004, 5:19pm   #34
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BBB,,


L O L


nice one
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Old Apr 6, 2004, 5:31pm   #35
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Hidden news from the BLS
April 4, 2004
By Kevin Murtaugh
Why would BLS admit there is an "estimated growth in population" and then turn around and reduce the population? While out-migration has become commonplace in Silicon Valley, this would be the first report claiming the USA is experiencing net out-migration!?! Could it be more and more people just escaping detection because they dropped out of the workforce? Or could there be political motivation?
http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_c...tent_idx=31571
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Old Aug 6, 2004, 8:35pm   #36
 
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Well, the 300,000 'whisper number' didn't quite get hit today then.............!?.............

a mere 268,000 out......................

Big Al (G'span) will be telling us that the 32k NF payrolls reported was yet another "aberration" when he hikes the rate by another .25% next week............
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Old Aug 6, 2004, 11:27pm   #37
 
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And in the data today, unemployment fell 0.1% when they had been expecting no change?
See other details below for other figures. Seems to me, the market didn't want to know the details it was just any ole excuse


The jobs report did have a bright spot: According to the survey of
60,000
households, employment grew by 629,000 in July, the biggest gain
since January
2003.
Most economists give greater credibility to the establishment
survey, which
showed 32,000 net jobs in July.
"You can't ignore some pieces of data and pay exclusive attention to
others,"
Mankiw said. "The truth lies in between those two estimates."
Labor Secretary Elaine Chao also emphasized the strong employment
gains in the
household survey in her official comment on the report.
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Old Aug 7, 2004, 10:19am   #38
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Look out for revisions next month then! I don't understand how the unemployment rate went down though?
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Old Nov 5, 2004, 11:19am   #39
 
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Quote:
When the government issues its closely watched employment report Friday morning, it's expected to show payrolls increased in October in part because of a rebound from a spate of hurricanes.
The average forecast of 39 economists surveyed by is for nonfarm payroll gains of 175,000 jobs after a disappointing gain of 96,000 in the previous month. The estimates range from 85,000 to 325,000.
Plainly a volatile little number and it is November 5th - a recipe for fireworks.....!?

Will those calling it 'up' be stuffed by high oil prices and the presidential election uncertainty that may suppress hiring.....?

I'll go for 125,000 and be prepared to be 100,000 out either way......

Any other estimates......?...... (with or without reasons......)
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Old Nov 5, 2004, 12:00pm   #40
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I attach a list of Eurodollar price changes on the day before and on the day of Payrolls. There appears to be a strong correlation here. If ED yields move more than 2bps net on the Thursday before payrolls then it is highly likely that the market will continue to move this way after the figure. This rule has only failed twice since 01-Aug-03 and would suggest further declines in yields post figure today.
I will not personally be staking anything on this theory, actually, if anything, I feel like the bonds are overbought and due for some downside.
Cannot deny that it is a very interesting observation.
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Old Nov 5, 2004, 5:19pm   #41
 
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Interesting observation TW, and appears to work most times…

Well, I did mention fireworks didn’t I…..? Must have had a Guy Fawkes premonition……

337,000 huh.?.. during the week that Dubya got back in…?…smacks of manipulation….it would be unpatriotic to let an employment black cloud spoil the party wouldn’t it…..?!

Will be looking for a downwards revision next month….

And I don’t care that my guesstimate was a mere 212,000 out – it was closer than some of the experts…..!...........

Anyway, now that the Presidential election is decided and the price of oil has fallen, the market really needs something new (or secondhand..) to worry about, so on the basis of today’s blowout jobs number, interest rates must rear their ugly head..

Quote:
" A rate hike from the Fed in November "is virtually assured and another 25 basis points in December is extremely likely."
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Old Nov 5, 2004, 5:27pm   #42
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Interesting to see how the dollar rally was sold into, just goes to show how bearish it really is.
I am hoping this will mark a turning point for the bonds, it is about time i have been fighting it for weeks. Should up the volatility if it can follow through next week.
If only we could have figures like that every day....
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Old Nov 5, 2004, 9:48pm   #43
 
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zigglewigler started this thread Yanks will soon see their faces in this turd!

Unemployment of 5.5% remains unchanged.

Construction employment up by 71,000. Just a few more hurricanes and the US economy might go somewhere!

Professional and business services employment rose by 97,000 in October,
with temporary help services accounting for about half of the increase
(48,000). Not more crappy temp jobs. Well as long as people are working up to the next bs report.

Another 62,000 in health and education, and 32,000 in local education. Another shovel load onto the deficit.

But of course, manufacturing dead in the water. Who cares if Americans don't make things anymore?! Chinamen do it more cheaply, so let them!

Oh dear, retail employment unchanged, are the Yanks running out of plastic power?

Wall Street got the excuse it needed. Turd buffed and sparkling. But still something stinks.
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Old Feb 4, 2005, 1:53pm   #44
 
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Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 189,000, in line with the average gain of 186,000 over the past year, according to a survey of 36 economists

Quote:
"All indications are that job growth continues to accelerate," said Tony Crescenzi, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak & Co
"It seems likely that job growth will trend higher toward 225,000 to 250,000 per month in the coming months, even if this trend is not captured in January,"
Quote:
Rick MacDonald, head of research at Action Economics, is also predicting a big number: 200,000.
Quote:
"We continue to think that the risk to our forecast (160,000), if there is one, is to the downside," said Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. fixed income economist for Deutsche Bank
Well, they've all been a couple of hundred thousand out before, but the pundits keep guessing a number that is often unguessable.....

But I can guess with the best of them - I'm going for 175,000...!

Anyone else up for a punt........?........

(data released at 13.30gmt)
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Old Feb 4, 2005, 2:11pm   #45
 
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Oh go on then - 165k and a drop to 10540.

It would be funnier to have a good number like 190k, a bull gap n trap peaking around 10630 and then a drop to 540 though.

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