Daily market overview from IFC Markets

This is a discussion on Daily market overview from IFC Markets within the Economic & Fundamental Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; After the 4-day fall American stocks have increased on Friday due to corporate releases. Intel shares rose 6.4% on the ...

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Old Mar 30, 2015, 5:24pm   #76
Joined Oct 2014
Positive EUR/USD mid-term forecast

IFCM started this thread After the 4-day fall American stocks have increased on Friday due to corporate releases. Intel shares rose 6.4% on the report it was going to acquire Altera (+28.4%). EUR/USD didnít show remarkable movement. Fed chair Janet Yellen stated that low core inflation and a very slow surge in income make it possible to postpone rate hike. Most market participants expect it to happen in October rather than in July. Making a Forex, forecast we may predict that USD bullish momentum will weaken. 100 level may become a technical resistance line for US Dollar Index.

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American macroeconomic data were mixed on Friday: Consumer Confidence outstripped forecasts while final GDP was slightly worse-than-expected. The trading volume on American stocks was 16.5% below the monthly average. During the previous week S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq lost 2.2%, 2.3% and 2.7% respectively. At 14:30 CET Personal spending for February will be announced. At 16:00 Pending Home sales will bee released. The outlook is positive. Futures on American stock indices and European shares are growing as US Dollar index inches higher.

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European FTSEuorofirst has added 1.2% today. At 11:00 CET eurozone Consumer Confidence and Business Climate Indicator were released. Technology companies' shares take the lead, following Intel-Altera merger deal information. However, unsettled Greek question produces a negative affect. Greek ATG has lost 1.4% today Most investors believe that Greece will have sufficient money only til April, 20. The country will have to find the solution to its financial problems up to this moment. Today at 14:00 CET Inflation for March will be announced in Germany. According to our forecast, the deflation risk will be reduced and the data will appear to be positive. European market may show a record growth since 2009.

Nikkei has expanded today together with other stock indices, despite negative Industrial Production in February. Last week Nikkei index declined for the first time, following 10 straight weeks of surge. As we mentioned in our previous overviews, State Pension Fund and private investors allocated their investment in domestic stocks and reduced the share in government bonds. This sounds logical to us, if to take into consideration the continuing monetary stimulus and low bond yields. Tomorrow at 7:00 CET Housing Starts and Construction orders will be released in Japan.

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Despite the postponed rate hike, gold quotes have been retreating two consequent days. FRS explains the decision by stating that macroeconomic statistics became better. It is probable that economic recovery together with the inching dollar resulted in gold prices pulling back. Stabilizing political situation in Yemen has put additional pressure on gold. To be noted, mixed sentiment on gold market has increased the number of forward trades to its high since 1999. They are opened by gold-mining companies that are concerned with the probable decrease in prices. In our opinion, that may drive up gold quotes in the future.

Oil prices have dropped today on the back of negotiations on Iranian nuclear programme. That may boost Iranian oil exports. It is worth mentioning that Libya also reported it would raise the supply.
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Old Mar 31, 2015, 4:00pm   #77
Joined Oct 2014
Markets advance as China announces new stimulus measures

IFCM started this thread US stocks advanced on Monday as investorsí confidence was boosted by announcements of new merger deals and dovish remarks by the head of Chinaís central bank and new policy measures to stimulate Chinaís housing market. UnitedHealth Group Inc. agreed to buy pharmacy benefit manager Catamaran Corp for $12.78 billion in cash. Teva Pharmaceutical Ltd. said it would buy Auspex Pharmaceuticals Inc for $3.5 billion. China reduced required down payment for second homes to 40 percent from 60 percent and broadened a sales-tax exemption on Monday for homeowners if they sell after holding a property for two years or more. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.2% and 1.5% respectively. They had lost more than 2 % last week. Economic data indicated that US consumers barely increased spending, which rose a less-than-expected 0.1% in February. This is another sign that US economy slowed in the first quarter. Personal incomes, meanwhile, rose 0.4% in February for the fourth time in five months and the saving rate climbed for the third straight month. Pending home sales for February reached their highest level since June 2013. The ICE US dollar index, a measure of the dollarís strength against a basket of six major currencies, ended up about 0.6% at 97.98. Today at 13:50 CET Fedís Lockhart gives welcome at Georgia conference on Monetary Policy and Financial Stability. At 14:00 CET January Case-Shiller Home Price Index will be released. At 14:45 CET Chicago PMI for March will be released. The tentative outlook is positive for the dollar. At 16:00 CET March Consumer Confidence will be released by the Conference Board. The tentative outlook is neutral.

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European stocks rose on Monday as investor optimism was bolstered by encouraging economic data, the prospect of more easing in China and sliding euro. The Stoxx Europe 600 index climbed 1.1%. Germanyís DAX 30 index rallied 1.8%, helped by weakening euro. Inflation data showed consumer prices in Germany grew 0.3% year-over-year in March, up from 0.1% in February. Economic confidence in the euro-zone rose markedly in March to the highest level since the summer of 2011. At 07:00 CET retail sales were released in Germany, showing a decline on a monthly basis for the first time since September. At 08:55 CET labor market data for March will be released in Germany. At 10:00 CET March consumer price index for euro-zone will be released by Eurostat. The tentative outlook is positive.

Nikkei fell today as investors took profits on the last trading day of the quarter and the last day of the fiscal year. Notwithstanding a sharp drop last week, the benchmark has gained 2.2 percent for the month and posted its three straight monthly gains. Yen continued the slide against the US dollar, which gained 0.8 percent vs yen on Monday for its biggest one-day rise in more than a month. Tomorrow at 00:50 CET in the morning the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey results will be published. The tentative outlook is positive.

Oil prices are falling today on expectations that a possible deal over Iranís nuclear program could result in easing of sanctions and increased exports, exacerbating global oversupply.

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Gold prices are falling after dropping for two consecutive days on Monday as stronger dollar and rising equities are dulling investor demand for the safe haven asset.
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Old Oct 25, 2016, 9:59am   #78
Joined Aug 2011
You might be better looking at a gold miner like Centamin, results are out next week 31st Oct, should be good, no debt,huge cash balance, fantastic output of gold!

Found this on a really informative forum on the London South East site CEY.L forum
http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker
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