Daily market overview from IFC Markets

This is a discussion on Daily market overview from IFC Markets within the Economic & Fundamental Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; US stocks fell on Wednesday, breaking the S&P 500 's and Dow Jones Industrial Average ’s 5-day record-closing streak as ...

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Nov 13, 2014, 10:56am   #16
Joined Oct 2014
The Dow and S&P 500 snap 5-day winning streak

IFCM started this thread US stocks fell on Wednesday, breaking the S&P 500's and Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 5-day record-closing streak as falling oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks turned investors cautious. After advancing 1.4% in previous five sessions the S&P 500 closed 1.43 points lower at 2,038.25 as investors sold off utilities and energy sector stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 2.7 points to 17,612.20. Today at 14:30 CET the Continuing Claims for the week ended November 1 and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November 8 will be released in US. The tentative forecast for the Continuing claims is positive, while the Initial Jobless Claims number is expected to rise marginally. At 18:45 CET Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver welcoming remarks at FED/ECB event.
Click the image to open in full size.
European markets closed lower on Wednesday as banking shares declined after companies agreed to pay multi-billion dollar fine to settle allegations that their traders helped rig currency markets and data from European Union’s statistics agency indicated that third-quarter output in euro zone will be lower than in the second quarter. A report from the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday warned of downside risks to its growth projections for the euro zone, and urged the European Central Bank to act if prices continue falling. Declining banking stocks dragged UK’s FTSE 100 , which fell 0.3% to 6,611.04. The British pound slumped after the Bank of England cut its forecasts for growth and inflation and signaled it is unlikely to raise interest rates until the second half of next year. The Bank of England sees British inflation falling below 1 percent in the next six months and Governor Mark Carney said markets were right to rule out an interest rate hike any time soon. The pound fell to $1.5818, from $1.5918 late on Tuesday. Separately, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development report indicated economic growth is set to slow in the euro zone and in the UK over the coming months. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 1.1% to close at 335.09, falling from a five-week closing high reached on Tuesday.
In Asia, China’s stock markets closed higher as investors expect that a stock trading link between Shanghai and Hong Kong launching on Monday will bring new players to mainland China’s stock market. In Japan, the Nikkei Stock Average ended up 0.4% at 17,197.05. Investors are betting that the planned national consumption tax increase originally expected next year will be delayed by Prime Minister Abe after he evaluates economic indicators such as July-September gross domestic product, scheduled to come out November 17.
Brent crude fell further from a four-year low, trading near $80 a barrel amid signs that OPEC remains unwilling to reduce output to stem global oversupply. West Texas Intermediate was steady in New York. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said in a public comment that talk of a price war has “no basis in reality” and they “want stable oil markets and steady prices”. Kuwaiti Oil Minister Ali Al-Omair said today OPEC won’t cut its collective output target at this month’s meeting.
Corn advanced for a fourth day, as reports of arctic air masses moving to northern and central US this week gave rise to speculation ranchers will increase feed stocks as animals will need to use more energy to stay warm.
Click the image to open in full size.
IFCM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 17, 2014, 2:59pm   #17
Joined Oct 2014
Japan: investors shocked

IFCM started this thread The Japanese recession onset pushed the major European, American and Asian indices. The Q3 GDP in Japan, the world’s third largest economy, shrank 1.6% after a reduction of 7.3% in the previous quarter. The official outlook amounted to 2.3% of it’s growth. It was reported that the Bank of Japan was planning to create new incentives for Japanese exports in terms of interest rate reduction and bond issuing. This event leads to the main conclusion: the US economy is no good at coping with the global economic growth function.

Stoxx Europe 600 Index has slipped 0.5% at the London Stock Exchange opening. S&P500 futures dropped 0.4%. Industrial Production data will be released today in the United States. It is estimated to 0.2% in the past month, and that is much lower than in September (1%). MSCI Pacific index and Japan’s Topix have also fallen 1.2% and 2.5%, respectively.

WTI crude oil continued to slide and lost 1.2% after the largest retracement in the previous month: investors don’t believe there will be any decision made regarding the reduction of oil supply at the next OPEC meeting. The targeted dumping is more probable to maintain the market share. Oil prices have fallen about 30% since early June as the US oil production rose till the historical high level. As a result, OPEC failed to achieve a reduction in oil production and was forced to decrease export prices. Among the most affected countries were Venezuela, Libya, and Ecuador. WTI price slipped more than 3.6% over the past week, and 24% compared to the last year.

Gold prices rose $24.10, or 2.07%, to $1185,60 per troy ounce. Gold futures is traded at the level of one-week high: investors are still cautious at closing short positions before the today’s release of important US economic data. Note that today we expect the publication of Empire State manufacturing Index and the US Industrial Production m/m. We don’t expect a long-term price growth of precious metals as positive US economic data makes it possible to expect the monetary policy tightening in the short term.
__________________
IFC Markets / More than just a broker
IFCM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 18, 2014, 11:57am   #18
Joined Oct 2014
Stock markets rise, S&P500 hits new record

IFCM started this thread US stocks declined in the morning trade on Monday following unexpected news that Japan’s economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter. The US central bank report that nation’s industrial production fell 0.1% in October after a 0.8 percent increase in September, the second decline in the past three months didn’t help investor optimism either. Stocks recovered in afternoon trade after market sentiment was bolstered by the news report that European Central Bank president Mario Draghi stated during testimony to the European Parliament in Brussels that the central bank would be open to potentially buying government bonds, if needed. The S&P 500 posted a small gain of 1.5 points which was enough to push the index to a new record close at 2,041.43 , its 42nd this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 13 points, or 0.1%, to 17,647.75. In a separate report, the New York Federal Reserve said its Empire State general business conditions index rose in November. Businesses remain upbeat about the future as an index for future business hit its highest level since January 2012.
Click the image to open in full size.
European stocks ended Monday higher after Draghi’s testimony indicated a possible start of a new round of monetary stimulus program by the ECB to help the recovery of euror zone economy. The Stoxx 600 had been lower for much of Monday’s session after data showed real gross domestic product in Japan shrank 1.6% in the third quarter. Draghi also reiterated his view that eurozone governments must enact structural reforms to foster economic growth, particularly by enacting labor reforms that would make job markets more flexible. The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed up 0.5% at 337.25, led by telecom, tech, resources and financial stocks. The euro fell to $1.2454 Monday as investors sold euros in anticipation of expansion of the monetary easing policy by ECB after trading above $1.2500 before Draghi’s remarks.
In Japan stock market is rising today after falling by 3% on Monday as investors anticipate that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will announce later in the day that he will delay an unpopular sales tax increase by more than a year and call a general election on December 14. Investors expect that the Bank of Japan will also announce about expansion of its monetary stimulus program as its two-day policy board meeting ends on Wednesday. The unexpected GDP contraction and the expansion of monetary easing measures by Japan’s central bank indicate that the yen will continue to weaken against US dollar.
Brent crude oil fell for a second day amid signs of weakening global demand. Futures dropped as much as 0.6 percent in London. West Texas Intermediate was steady in New York. US shale drillers have said they are planning on production growth with fewer rigs despite of falling prices. More investors believe OPEC is not likely cut its output as it doesn’t want to lose its market share to US shale producers.
Click the image to open in full size.
Corn fell for a third day in the longest retreat this month as US farmers accelerated harvesting of a record crop. The contract for March delivery lost as much as 0.5 percent to $3.8875 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade and was at $3.8975 by 10:56 am in Singapore. A decline today would complete the longest such run since September 23. Soybeans also dropped. Soybeans for January delivery dropped 0.7 percent to $10.2925 a bushel.
__________________
IFC Markets / More than just a broker
IFCM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 19, 2014, 11:11am   #19
Joined Oct 2014
Stocks continue rising, S&P 500 and Dow hit new record closing highs

IFCM started this thread The US stocks recorded sizable gains on Tuesday as investor optimism was boosted by upbeat housing data, as well as news of a sales tax hike delay in Japan and better-than-expected ZEW survey data from Germany. The S&P 500 rose 10.48 points, or 0.5% to close at an all-time high of 2,051.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 40 points, or 0.2%, to close at a record level of 17,687.82. US home builder sentiment rose in November as the Housing Market Index released on Tuesday indicated an advance to 58 in November from 54 in October, which was led by more optimism over present and upcoming sales of single-family homes. And US producer inflation edged up 0.2 percent in October, above expectations. Nevertheless, the underlying inflation trend is weak as core PPI excluding energy, food and services rose only 0.1 percent. Today at 20:00 CET Fed releases Minutes from October 28-29 FOMC Meeting which markets will watch for any clues on when the Fed will start raising rates.
Click the image to open in full size.
European markets were buoyed by the better-than-expected German ZEW survey, showing the lead economic-sentiment indicator rose to 11.5 in November from a negative 3.6 in October. The survey eased concerns about Europe’s biggest economy by providing grounds for optimism after data released last week showed Germany narrowly avoided recession in the third quarter. The DAX equity index jumped 1.6% to 9,456.53, the strongest close since September 30. The UK’s FTSE 100 index rose 0.6% to 6,709.13, and in Paris, the CAC 40 gained 0.9% to end at 4,262.38. The euro rose against the dollar following the ZEW data, but will likely remain under pressure as the European Central Bank has indicated it is considering purchasing government bonds as the next stage of its monetary easing policy measures. The dollar fell against the pound after a report that inflation in the UK accelerated in October to 1.3%, from 1.2% in September. Yesterday afternoon Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called for snap elections in December and delayed a planned sales-tax hike delay for a year and a half. Japanese stocks started modestly higher today but quickly added to gains as the yen continued falling ahead of Bank of Japan’s Interest Rate Statement and the central bank’s Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s press conference later in the day.
Oil continued falling amid speculation that OPEC will resist production cuts sought by some of its smaller members. Ecuador and Venezuela will ask members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to reduce excess output, an Ecuador official said. Brent for January settlement fell 84 cents to $78.47 a barrel yesterday on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Gold prices jumped Tuesday as the dollar fell against major currencies amid economic and political news. The US currency fell against the yen after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Tuesday the government will delay by 18 months a planned increase in sales tax. He will dissolve the lower house of parliament and has called for a snap election to be held in December. Gold has been falling against the backdrop of improving US economy and stronger dollar as central banks outside US expand monetary easing policy measures to stimulate faltering economies. Gold for December delivery gained $13.60, or 1.2%, to settle at $1,197.10 an ounce. December silver gained 12 cents, or 0.7%, settling at $16.17 an ounce.
Click the image to open in full size.
__________________
IFC Markets / More than just a broker
IFCM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 20, 2014, 11:27am   #20
Joined Oct 2014
Markets retreat, S&P 500 snaps 4-day advance

IFCM started this thread The US stocks traded in a narrow range on Wednesday as the latest minutes from the October meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee were published and closed marginally lower. The S&P 500 closed 3.1 points lower at 2,048.72, ending its four-day winning streak and posting its 43rd record high previous day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down 2.1 points to 17,685.73. The Nasdaq Composite finished down 26.73 points, or 0.6%, at 4,675.71. The Fed minutes revealed that several Federal Reserve officials pushed colleagues to say more publicly about the pace of interest rate increases, suggesting that the central bank is still planning to raise rates next year despite low inflation and weak global economic outlook. No additional information was revealed about when interest rates would be hiked. It is expected Fed will increase rates near the end of 2015. Earlier Wednesday the Commerce Department reported that construction started on new US homes fell in October as multifamily-home construction dropped 15.5%, while single family home construction actually rose 4.2% to its highest pace since November 2013. Today at 14:30 CET the Consumer Price Index for October (YoY) will be released in US, the tentative forecast is 1.6% against 1.7 percent in the previous month. At the same time the Continuing Claims and Initial Jobless Claims for the weeks ended November 8 and 15 will be released, and the tentative forecast is positive. At 15:45 CET Markit releases preliminary US Manufacturing PMI for November. And at 16:00 CET Existing Home Sales for October, the Leading Indicators for October and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will be released, which are expected to come out lower compared with the previous month.
Click the image to open in full size.
European stock markets posted marginal gains after hitting a seven-week high earlier on Wednesday as investors adopted cautious stance ahead of minutes of Fed’s October policy meeting. The stocks were also under pressure as mining shares fell following a 5% drop in China’s iron ore futures, indicating a supply glut and weak demand. Germany's DAX rose 0.17 percent and France's CAC was up 0.09 percent. UK’s FTSE 100 index fell 0.2% to 6,696.60. The euro moved higher against the dollar for the second consecutive session, briefly climbing to $1.2605 immediately after the FOMC minutes before falling back to $1.2543. Japan’s exports rose the most in eight months in October, as data from finance ministry indicated overseas shipments rose 9.6 percent from a year earlier to the highest level since October 2008. The Bank of Japan yesterday maintained record stimulus after the economy slipped into recession. China’s preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics fell to 50, the borderline between expansion and contraction and the lowest in six months.
Crude-oil futures extended losses to a third straight session on the backdrop of the US Energy Information Administration report earlier Wednesday showing a surprise increase in supplies. January Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell 0.5%, to finish at $78.10 a barrel. Brent prices slid 1.7% in the last three sessions. Gold declined on reports Wednesday that support for a Swiss November 30 referendum to require the country’s central bank to hold 20% of its reserves in gold will likely not secure more than 50% support to pass. Gold for December delivery slid $3.20 to settle at 1,193.90 an ounce.
Click the image to open in full size.
__________________
IFC Markets / More than just a broker
IFCM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 21, 2014, 12:19pm   #21
Joined Oct 2014
Double jeopardy for GBP

IFCM started this thread The British pound continued slipping against other liquid currencies. The UK Independence party (UKIP), which goes for the country’s exit from the EU, won the European Parliament elections held in Britain on Thursday. This event casts doubt on the cooperation outlook with the largest trading partner. If the decision of the UK leaving the EU is taken, we would expect the pound to weaken no less than 10%. It dipped 0.3%, falling to $1.5645 on London Exchange. This is the most severe weakening of the national currency over the entire week.
Stocks of European companies rose after Mario Draghi had spoken on inflation rate. Today Stoxx Europe 600 has upped 0.9% at the trading session opening on London Stock Exchange, approaching the weekly high +1.7%. The growth was also demonstrated by oil and gas companies: oil price boosted during the week for the first time since September. S&P 500 and MSCI Pacific showed weak growth by 0.3%, which has no significant fundamental reasons.

Analysts are not consistent in their opinion after the OPEC meeting of 12 member-states: there is no single opinion on possible oil supply cuts. Therefore, slightly risen oil prices this week are likely to be explained as the price retreat in the face of uncertainty. Nevertheless, members of the organization recognize that the demand will be significantly lower next year. Brent crude oil fell 30% since June as US oil production was increasing for three consecutive quarters. However, weak global economic growth does not guarantee the expected demand. Opinions of OPEC members are also divided: if Saudi Arabia is resisting the demand cut, Venezuela and other countries are looking for ways to support the market before the meeting on November 27.
The world’s largest meat company JBS announced its plans to increase exports to Asia. It happened after the Primo Group purchase, the largest meat producer in Australia and New Zealand. That gives the opportunity to increase the share of more expensive products and expand the market. Currently, Australia can not export about 20% of pork due to the lack of certification in the Chinese market. However, this restriction would be overleaped as the free trade agreement between the two countries enters into force beginning in 2018. The prospects for meat supply hike on the biggest Asian market resulted in F-CATTLE price drop: today the price has dropped 0.7% on Chicago Mercantile Exchange and indicated further reduction outlook.
__________________
IFC Markets / More than just a broker
IFCM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 25, 2014, 1:15pm   #22
Joined Oct 2014
Markets rise, S&P 500 and Dow hit new records

IFCM started this thread US markets closed higher on Monday. The S&P 500 closed 5.91 points, or 0.3%, higher at 2,069.41, the 46th time it closed at record level this year. The heaviest-weighted company on the index, Apple, Inc. rose 1.9%, helping lift the benchmark. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped in an out of negative territory but closed marginally higher at 17,817, a record high for the 29th time this year. Analysts expect that revised third-quarter gross domestic product figures expected to be released today at 14:30 CET, followed by the consumer confidence index for November will indicate an improved outlook for the US.

Click the image to open in full size.

European stocks rose Monday building on last week’s momentum after the ECB revealed plans for further stimulus and announced Friday that it had begun purchases of asset-backed securities, marking a second stage of its quantitative easing measures. The Stoxx Europe 600 closed 0.1% higher, pulling back from bigger gains during the session after reports of unexpected improvement of German business sentiment provided some reason to expect the ECB will likely reconsider the urgency of immediate action in light of improving outlook in Europe’s biggest economy. On Monday the Ifo institute reported German business confidence survey results which indicated the monthly index rose unexpectedly to 104.7 points in November from 103.2 points in October, after declining for six months in a row. Euro rose against other major currencies, climbing to $1.2409, up from $1.2392 late Friday. The gains for euro could have been higher if it were not for the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s remark last week that it was necessary to bring euro zone inflation up to the ECB’s target “without delay.” The comment reinforced Investor expectations that the ECB will implement a full-scale quantitative easing program, which likely would weaken the euro. In other currency pairs, the yen fell against the dollar to ¥118.245 from ¥117.72 Friday. Investors are looking forward to the release of minutes from October’s Bank of Japan meeting Monday evening to see if it will reveal any details for central bank’s monetary easing program. Russia’s ruble , which has fallen almost 37% so far this year against the dollar rose around 2.1% against the greenback.

Oil futures declined in choppy trade Monday as investors awaited the results of talks over Iran’s nuclear program. A deal would end sanctions on Iranian oil exports, further increasing the supply and adding pressure on oil in a global market suffering from low demand and increased output by major producers. ICE January Brent futures dropped 68 cents, or 0.9%, to end at $79.68 a barrel, after two sessions of gains. As the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is planning a meeting on Thursday, investors expect no major cut to be announced. The cartel wants to preserve its market share therefore leave production as is, and a large cut would enable US shale producers to keep their own production levels high.

Gold futures declined as US inflation concerns eased and the dollar climbed to the highest level since March 2009 against a basket of 10 currencies as Japan and Europe added to monetary stimulus. In 2014, gold has declined 0.5 percent. The metal in 2013 tumbled 28 percent, ending a 12-year bull run. A second straight annual drop would mark the longest slump since 1998.

Click the image to open in full size.
__________________
IFC Markets / More than just a broker
IFCM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 26, 2014, 10:42am   #23
Joined Oct 2014
Global markets mixed, S&P 500 and Dow close lower

IFCM started this thread The US stocks traded in a narrow range on Tuesday and closed marginally lower snapping a three day run on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Commerce Department upgraded its reading on third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 3.9 percent on Tuesday from 3.5 percent reported last month. The raised estimates reflected upward revisions to business and consumer spending, At the same time The Conference Board report released on Tuesday indicated that US consumer confidence fell unexpectedly in November to its lowest level since June as optimism waned in the short-term outlook for business conditions and jobs. The S&P 500 set an intraday high, but closed 0.1% lower at 2,067.04. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 3 points to 17,814.94.

Click the image to open in full size.

In Europe, Germany’s Federal Statistics Office confirmed an earlier preliminary estimate showing a 0.1 percent rise in seasonally-adjusted GDP in the third quarter, indicating that Europe’s biggest economy narrowly avoided recession after contraction in the second quarter. Germany’s DAX 30 index climbed 0.8% to 6,731.14, pushing the index’s month-to-date gain to 5.7%. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2% to 346.28. The European Commission agreed on Tuesday to set up a new fund with $26 billion of capital to act as a catalyst for 300 billion euros of private investment into infrastructure projects to revive growth. The Commission hopes it will create a million jobs over three years. The Nikkei Average rose 0.3% to 17,407.62 on Tuesday. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Tuesday that the central bank would continue to take actions to achieve its 2% inflation target. On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China lowered its 14-day repurchase-agreement rate by 20 basis points after a surprise interest rate cut on Friday.

Oil futures slumped to their lowest close in more than four years Tuesday after a meeting between OPEC members Saudi Arabia and Venezuela with major oil producers Russia and Mexico failed to reach an agreement on output cuts. ICE January Brent dropped $1.35, or 1.7%, to $78.33 a barrel. Analysts expect Saudi Arabia is likely to adhere to calls for the cartel to stick closer to its production ceiling of 30 million barrels which could provide some near-term support, but have argued it would likely take a bigger reduction to provide a more sustainable increase in the price. The cartel has been exceeding its existing production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day, producing around 30.7 million barrels a day in September.

Gold inched higher on Tuesday after reports US confidence index fell unexpectedly in November. December gold futures settled up 0.1% at $1,197.10 an ounce. December silver settled higher 1% at $16.55 an ounce. China will begin to buy corn from farmers this week under an annual intervention program as it seeks to support the domestic market and boost rural incomes, and plans to buy 40 million tons of corn in 2014/2015. And falling soymeal prices in China are threatening to cut China's booming demand for US beans as processing margins have started turning negative. A slowdown in imports by China, which buys more than 60 percent of globally traded beans, could add to pressure on global prices that rallied to a four-month high earlier this month on the back of strong demand.

Click the image to open in full size.
__________________
IFC Markets / More than just a broker
IFCM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 27, 2014, 1:05pm   #24
Joined Oct 2014
S&P 500 and Dow hit new record highs

IFCM started this thread US stocks ended Wednesday session marginally higher as investors discounted mostly disappointing economic news. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average scored their 47th and 30th record closes this year at 2072.77 and 17827.75 respectively. Trading was thin ahead of Thanksgiving holiday. The Commerce Department said Wednesday consumer spending climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in October after being flat in September. Core capital goods orders excluding aircraft fell 1.3 percent for a second straight month, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans. The drop in core capital goods suggests the economy is not fully immune to Japan's recession and cooling growth in China and Europe. A separate report from the Labor Department showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits last week were above 300,000 for the first time since early September. The Chicago purchasing-managers index and the University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index for November fell slightly. Sales of new single-family homes rose 0.7% in October, while a gauge of pending home sales fell 1.1% in October, signaling that upcoming deals could slow down.

Click the image to open in full size.

Vitor Constancio, the European Central Bank’s vice president, said on Wednesday the ECB might decide as early as the first quarter of next year whether to begin buying sovereign bonds, starting the so called quantitative easing program. Equities across Europe rose after this news but ended essentially flat as The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed unchanged at 346.28. The euro declined after Constancio’s comments , but recovered later against the dollar to buy $1.2502 compared with $1.2473 in late Tuesday as the dollar lost ground after a round of weak US economic data.

Oil futures declined further on Wednesday on expectations the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will not decide to cut significantly oil production at its meeting on Thursday. January Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange slid 54 cents to $77.80 a barrel. Nymex crude has dropped nearly 3.7% since the beginning of the week. Oil futures are down more than 30% from their midyear high. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Ali Al-Naimi, said Wednesday that he believes the crude market “will stabilize itself,” while Iran’s oil minister said OPEC should comply with its output ceiling. As analysts point out, lowering the production limit is not in OPEC’s long term interest as by limiting its own output it would concede more market share to shale oil producers. At the same time, current low oil prices are to the benefit of some larger OPEC members like Saudi Arabia as this will undoubtedly put pressure on smaller and inefficient oil producers.

Click the image to open in full size.

Gold declined on Wednesday with December gold finishing down less than 0.1% at $1,196.60 an ounce as the mixed US economic data indicating some slowing in the pace of economic growth were discounted by investors and didn’t cause an increase for the safe haven asset demand. Gold is up 2.1% in the month to date, having dipped just 0.1% so far in this holiday-shortened week. Meanwhile, December silver settled unchanged at $16.55 an ounce. Corn futures rose for a second day in Chicago on demand for the grain to make ethanol as US output of the fuel climbed to an all-time high. Yesterday, corn futures for March delivery gained 1.8 percent. With 94 percent of the crop harvested as of November 23, many farmers are storing corn until prices rise.
__________________
IFC Markets / More than just a broker
IFCM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 28, 2014, 1:05pm   #25
Joined Oct 2014
OPEC leaves oil output

IFCM started this thread Yesterday the United States celebrated the public holiday, Thanksgiving Day. European markets rose. Market participants had a positive reaction to OPEC’s decision to leave oil output as it was. Oil prices have tumbled about $6 per barrel: it would reduce significantly the expenses of European companies.

Click the image to open in full size.

An additional growth factor was the fallen German inflation rate in November. This improves the chances of an early start of the ECB money printing. Investors believe that part of that money would flood into the stock market one way or another. Therefore, euro has slipped. This morning European markets are slightly down expecting the data on inflation and unemployment for the EU. The data will be released at 10-00 СЕТ. It was also caused by the negative stock price change of European oil and energy companies, and Aurubis AG stocks slumped 7% due to the Goldman Sachs forecast revised downward. Note that significant macroeconomic data is not expected today in the US.

Click the image to open in full size.

Nikkei dipped on Thursday as it was traded before the OPEC decision. Today it has climbed. It added 6.4% in November, the most significant rise over 12 months. Another positive factor for the Japanese stock market was the yen weakening and the economic data released this morning. Industrial production in October increased 0.2% compared to September. It was expected to fall 0.6%. Unemployment rate was 3.5%, slightly better than expected. Inflation rate in October fell to 2.9% yoy, compared to 3% in September. Growth in consumer prices in Tokyo in November was also less than expected. In theory, this allows the Bank of Japan to continue money issuing, which depreciates the yen. According to the BOJ, if not taking the sales tax hike in April into account, CPI was only 0.9% last month, instead of 2.9% stated in official statistics. The BOJ inflation target amounts to 2%. Note that yen weakening was moderate yesterday as the Bank of Japan announced plans to cut the purchases of short-term government bonds in December.

Previously, we have repeatedly pointed out that fallen world crude oil prices is coherent with anti-Russian Western sanctions. The US increased its own oil output up to 9.08 million barrels per day, the record high since 1983. Oil priced tumbled 37% since June. The CEO of Russia's largest oil company Rosneft Igor Sechin accept the possibility of Brent crude oil prices may be falling to $60 per barrel and lower by the middle of next year. In this case, Russia can reduce the production by 200-300 thousand barrels per day. Note that at the last OPEC meeting, Venezuela and Algeria called for the output cut of 2 million barrels per day. That means Russia is unlikely to affect oil prices without OPEC. The organization produces 30.97 million barrels per day and provides 40% of world exports. Russian ruble falls against the US dollar as global oil prices are going down: it can be used for trading.

According to Olam International forecast, the global shortage of cocoa in 2014/2015 would reach the level of 120 thousand tons due to the reduced crop in Ivory Coast to 1.15 million tons, compared to 1.23 million a season earlier, and in Ghana – 625 thousand tons vs. 735 thousand.

Click the image to open in full size.

Gold prices drop for three days in a row. Meanwhile, a Swiss referendum on increasing gold in state reserves from 8% to 20% will be held in Switzerland on Sunday, November 30.

Note that Bloomberg Commodity Index slumped to the record low since July 2009. Some investors deem that cheap oil may cause deflation and have a negative impact on commodity prices.
__________________
IFC Markets / More than just a broker
IFCM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Dec 1, 2014, 2:29pm   #26
Joined Oct 2014
Biggest one-day drop in oil prices since May 2011

IFCM started this thread World stock markets were mixed on Friday. As OPEC left the output level unchanged, the daily drop in oil prices was the largest since May 2011 and reached 7%. Amid this data, S&P energy index tumbled 6.3%. Stocks of oil companies Exxon Mobil and Chevron fell 4.2% and 5.4%, respectively. Stocks of shale oil companies such as Denbury Resources, QEP Resources and Newfield Exploration dropped about 15%. Cheap oil reduces expenses of transportation and aviation companies, as well as retailers. Stocks of Delta Air Lines rose 5.5%. S&P 500 Retailing upped 1.4%.

Click the image to open in full size.

Followed up the week and November, the US stock indices rose. Today at 14-45 СЕТ Markit Manufacturing PMI is to be released in the US. At 15-00 СЕТ we expect the release of ISM Manufacturing index. The forecast for the first index is slightly positive, for the second one – moderately negative. Two Fed officials will be delivering their speeches at 17-15 and 18-00 СЕТ. For more information about macroeconomic data for this week, please watch our weekly video overview. According to the US National Retail Federation, the volume of retail sales in the United States over the weekend and Thanksgiving Day slipped 11.3%, compared to last year. It may hammer stock indices.

As released on Friday, inflation and unemployment in the euro zone remained unchanged in October compared to November. This morning European indices have dipped as the Chinese Manufacturing PMI in November hit the 8-month low (50.3 points). Market participants are concerned that it may reduce the demand for European goods. Another negative factor that affected European markets was the weak Markit Manufacturing PMI performance in Germany, France and Italy. At 9-00 СЕТ the same indicator for the euro zone will come out. There will be no macroeconomic data releases for today.

Click the image to open in full size.

Nikkei has risen in the morning as yen hit the 7-year high, a bit above 119 yen per US dollar. Moody's Investors Service lowered the credit rating of Japan to A1 from AA3. Now Nikkei is going down under the pressure of weak data from China. Other Asian stock indices fell altogether. Note that a weak exchange rate of the national currency provides substantial support for Japanese exporters and bolsters the stock rise. The same as in Europe, due to falling oil prices stocks of airlines were traded higher.

A slowdown in Chinese industrial growth affected commodity futures. The most affected resulted to be copper prices. In China copper is used as a guaranty for commercial loans.

As expected, oil prices continued to fall. OPEC members have begun to revise their budgets for next year. Some investors deem that Brent crude oil would stay in the range of $64-68 per barrel, as the lowered price will make the oil production unprofitable at the most part of world’s oil fields. Note that the next OPEC meeting is scheduled for June.

Precious metals have fallen in price, as the Swiss referendum didn’t approve the decision to increase the share of gold reserves of the country. In our opinion, the prices may stop falling for some time, since the majority of players had already sold gold. Gold stockpiles of SPDR Gold Trust reached a 6-year low of 717.6 tons. Pure gold imports into China via Hong Kong in October rose to 77.6 tons from 68.6 tons in September. The Reserve Bank of India cancelled unexpectedly the existing requirements for gold importers. For this reason, according to Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association outlook, gold demand in India would rise up to 900 tons per year.

Click the image to open in full size.

Wheat prices have climbed after the announcement of possible export cuts from Russia due to phytosanitary control tightening. We believe it is likely to happen as mutual economic sanctions were imposed.
__________________
IFC Markets / More than just a broker
IFCM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Dec 2, 2014, 12:29pm   #27
Joined Oct 2014
Markets retreat on weak economic data

IFCM started this thread US stocks fell on Monday after disappointing economic data from China and Thanksgiving holiday sales. The National Retail Federation estimates indicate retail spending over the Thanksgiving weekend fell 11%, the second straight annual decline, contributing to decline of retailer stocks such as Wal-Mart Inc., Target Corp. The negative retail sales hit also Tech stocks after disappointing sales on Cyber Monday. Internet-retailing giant Amazon.com Inc. shares declined by 1.2%, Apple Inc. fell 3% and other e-commerce companies including eBay Inc , Google Inc , Yahoo! Inc. , Facebook Inc Netflix Inc. and Chinese Internet giant Alibaba Group suffered losses too. The S&P 500 and the Dow saw their biggest one-day loss since Oct 22. The S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 2,053.44, while the Dow Jones Industrial lost 0.3% to 17.776.80. The Nasdaq Composite’s decline was the biggest in seven weeks, after falling 1.3%, to 4,727.35.

Click the image to open in full size.

European stocks fell on Monday, as investors weighed economic data indicating slowing in economic activity in euro zone and China. Data firm Markit said its monthly survey of euro zone purchasing managers fell to 50.1 in November, down from a preliminary estimate of 50.4. HSBC early Monday said its China PMI fell to a six-month low of 50.0 and China’s National Bureau of Statistics said official PMI fell to 50.3, the lowest level since March. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 0.5% to 345.64, the oil and mining shares leading the losses after OPEC decision not to cut oil production and the reported weakness of the world’s second largest economy.

WTI futures gained more than 4% Monday after crude futures plunged 10% on Friday in reaction to the OPEC decision to maintain production levels. January Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $2.39, or 3.4%, to finish at $72.54 a barrel after a five-session decline. Investors expect the price slump to continue unless major energy producers take steps to limit the supply to match the falling global demand. Analysts estimate a massive oversupply in the first half of 2015 roughly equal to 1.5 million barrels per day. And as OPEC didn’t agree to curb its oil output the decision of other major producers will determine future price movement.

Click the image to open in full size.

After meeting with his Turkish counterpart in Ankara yesterday President Putin said Russia will concentrate on supplying gas to Turkey through a different Black Sea pipeline, scrapping the $45 billion South Stream project that would bypass Ukraine to supply European markets. Russia will supply gas to Turkey through the Blue Stream pipeline, increasing deliveries by 3 billion cubic meters a year and offering a 6 percent discount from January 1. The ruble moved off record lows against the US dollar Monday as oil prices recovered slightly.

Gold and silver bounced on Monday as lowering of Japan’s sovereign credit rating by Moody’s Investors Service, import restrictions easing by India and softer dollar increased investor demand for safe haven assets. Gold for February delivery jumped $42.60 or 3.6%, to settle at $1,218.10 an ounce. Meanwhile, March silver surged $1.14 or 7.3%, to $16.69 an ounce. Asian stocks rose on Tuesday, with a rebound in crude oil and commodities including iron ore and copper prices lifting the stock markets of resource-exporting countries. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 0.6 percent. The Nikkei posted gains of 0.4 percent to end at 17,663.22.
__________________
IFC Markets / More than just a broker
IFCM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Dec 3, 2014, 1:27pm   #28
Joined Oct 2014
Markets advance as energy shares rebound

IFCM started this thread US stocks rose on Tuesday as energy shares rebounded after yesterday’s slumping. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 102.75 points, or 0.6%, to 17,879.55, posting its 32nd record close this year. The S&P 500 gained 13.11 points, or 0.6%, to 2,066.55, with the health-care sector stocks joining energy to lead gains. Energy shares rallied 1.3 percent for the largest gains among all sectors. Nine of 10 main industries in the S&P 500 advanced. The investor mood was boosted also by positive economic data released Tuesday morning, showing construction spending rose 1.1% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $971 million, much higher than expected. A separate report from Autodata indicated that November car and light truck sales were second-highest in eight years at seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17.2 million, up from 16.5 million in October and the best level since August. Shares in General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. rose 1% and 0.8% respectively. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer and New York Fed President William C. Dudley highlighted yesterday the positive economic impact from the decline in oil prices. Stanley Fischer said continued labor market improvement and “some signs” that inflation is beginning to stir would be enough for the US central bank to start to raise interest rates.

Click the image to open in full size.

Increasing share prices for energy companies drove European markets higher. On Tuesday, shares of oil and gas firm Afren PLC jumped 13% . Also, shares of BG Group PLC climbed 3% and Royal Dutch Shell PLC gained 2%. The Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.9% to 348.62. Euro zone factory prices declined by 0.4 percent from September against a 0.3 percent forecast, their sharpest monthly drop in a year. This adds pressure on the European Central Bank to do more to lift the bloc's depressed economy. Stock markets in Asia rose also. The HSBC/Markit Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China rose to 53.0 last month from October's 52.9, indicating China's services sector grew marginally faster in November in contrast to manufacturing PMIs released a day ago recording declining growth in factories in November. Hong Kong and Shanghai stocks made strong advances early Wednesday amid expectations of further monetary easing policy measures by Chinese authorities. Japanese stocks advanced early Wednesday morning, heading into a possible fourth straight day of gains, helped by US stock market advance, solid auto-sales data and a weaker yen.

Brent for January settlement gained as much as 92 cents to $71.46 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange and was at $71.06 at 12:36 p.m. Singapore time. Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, reached a deal with Kurdish authorities to export oil through Turkey. It will ship as much as 550,000 barrels a day from northern Iraq to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan adding to global supply surplus. At an event in London yesterday Saudi Arabia’s former intelligence chief Al-Faisal said the kingdom will consider reducing output if there’s “reasonably guaranteed oversight” of quotas and market share isn’t lost to other suppliers.

Gold and precious metals fell as the ICE US Dollar Index rose 0.8% to 88.64. A strong dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities like gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Gold for February delivery fell 1.5%, to settle at $1,199.40 an ounce. Global disinflation and rising equity markets set the stage for bearish trend for safe haven assets.

Click the image to open in full size.
__________________
IFC Markets / More than just a broker
IFCM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Dec 8, 2014, 2:08pm   #29
Joined Oct 2014
Markets rise as positive data on labor market released

IFCM started this thread On Friday world stock indices rose after the release of positive data on the US labor market. The number of new jobs in November appeared to be at the highest level since January 2012 (321 thousand). Unemployment rate hit a six-year low of 5.8%. For 11 months in a row more than 200 thousand new jobs a month have been created in the US. Such a long period of growth is observed for the first time since 1994. Over the past year 2.33 million jobs were created and over 11 month in 2014 – 2.65 million. Such dynamics considering the low inflation rate boosts the economic growth and bolsters the US dollar index. Today it has hit a six-year high. Dow and S&P 500 closed higher for the seventh consecutive week. However, weak data on factory orders in October was released on Friday. They fell for the third consecutive month. Currently, US stock indices futures are traded down. There is no more significant macroeconomic data released for today in the US.
European stocks are slipping down after Friday’s advance. It was caused by a slowdown in German industrial production in October, 0.2% vs. the projected figure of 0.4%, and a significant reduction in imports to China in November (6.7%). This indicator was expected to add 3.8%. One more negative factor for fallen European markets was the downgrading of Italy’s credit rating from BBB to BBB- by Standard & Poor's agency.

Click the image to open in full size.

Nikkei has also dipped down after a strong gain. Its dynamics coincides with the global trend. It should be noted that significant yen depreciation was an extra factor in favor of the exporters’ stock rise. Toyota Motor stocks upped 1.5%. Negative economic data which affected the exchange rate was published yesterday in Japan. The reduction in Q3 GDP outperformed forecasts. The trade deficit in October was higher than expected. The next release of Japanese economic statistics will be published on Wednesday morning. In our opinion, the main event of the week may become the elections in the Japanese parliament held on Sunday. New MPs are supposed to support the monetary policy conducted by the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, aimed at further yen weakening.
World oil prices halted its decline. Despite the overall reduction of Chinese imports, crude oil purchases increased 7.9% in November, compared to the same period last year, and upped 9% compared to October. Currently, China purchases 6.18 million barrels a day. International Energy Agency raised its growth forecast of Chinese oil demand in 2014 up to 2.5% vs. 2.3% as was expected in September outlook. Note that the OPEC production in November reached 30.56 million barrels a day, compared to agreed 30 million. The oil output has been outperformed for six months in a row. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, WTI crude oil net long positions increased 12% over the past week. Net short positions slumped 15%, while net long positions upped 4%. Probably, hedge funds take profits and do not expect a strong decline in oil prices from current levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, hedge funds increased gold and silver net long positions over the past week. Copper net short positions have also risen. Note that copper is not getting cheaper as China raised its imports 5% in November.

Click the image to open in full size.

Sugar prices rose slightly due to the Brazilian company Unica’s outlook, which expects to reduce the crop of 2015/2016 to 29-30.3 million tons vs. 31.4 million tons a season earlier. The ethanol production from sugarcane would increase 2%.
__________________
IFC Markets / More than just a broker
IFCM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Dec 9, 2014, 11:47am   #30
Joined Oct 2014
Markets retreat as oil declines

IFCM started this thread US stock markets slumped on Monday recording their biggest one-day slide in nearly seven weeks as continuing oil decline prompted investors to sell-off energy stocks. Disappointing economic reports released on Monday, including lower Chinese trade numbers, contracting Japanese economy in the third quarter and lower expansion of Germany industrial production in October also contributed to worsening investor sentiment. Oil giants ExxonMobil Corp. and Chevron Corp dropped 2.3% and 3.7% respectively, Apple Inc. fell 2.3%. S&P 500 and The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.75% and 0.6% respectively. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, was down 0.26%, its first loss in two sessions.

Click the image to open in full size.

European stocks fell Monday after reports indicating that imports into China unexpectedly fell in November by 6.7% against expectations for 3% growth, and industrial production in Germany rose less than expected. European Central Bank Governor Ewald Nowotny expressed concerns about weakening growth in the eurozone economy at a conference in Frankfurt Monday. He warned that eurozone inflation could continue to fall during the first quarter of 2015, which would take the currency union dangerously close to deflation, and said he would like to see the ECB expand its balance sheet by €1 trillion. On the prospects of further easing of monetary policy by ECB euro fell to $1.2265, a 28-month low, from $1.2289 late Friday. In a separate report the Paris-based research body - the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said a composite leading indicator continues to indicate a loss of growth momentum in eurozone, particularly in Germany and Italy.

The Nikkei share average fell 0.5 percent on Tuesday after 7 straight days of gains as a rebound in yen prompted investors to take profits. The yen rose to around 120.90 to the dollar from a low of 121.86 on Monday. Investors are still optimistic as they expect Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to win a weekend re-election bid that will allow him to continue with the government's pro-growth policies.

Crude-oil prices again tumbled to five-year lows Monday with WTI futures for January delivery dropping 4.2%, to settle at $63.05 a barrel. Analysts expect the oversupply to continue into next year without intervention by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut output to balance the market. A Baker Hughes report on Friday showed an increase in the US drilling rig count, despite the falling price. A separate report from KBC Energy Economics showed less than a third of January’s cargos of Nigerian oil have been sold with just two weeks left before February deliveries. The surplus of West African crude is one indicator of Atlantic basin oil demand, and unsold inventories pressure Brent crude prices.

Click the image to open in full size.

Nickel fell for a third day as disappointing data from Germany to China indicated weakening global demand. And on the LME, lead, aluminum and zinc were little changed, while tin fell.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences said in a report that exports to the US from the third-largest shipper will jump 35 percent to 360,000 metric tons in 2014-2015. Years of drought forced the US producers to cull herds, and cattle futures reached a record last month. Prices may rise the most among agricultural commodities next year amid tight supply and strong demand, according to Rabobank International.
__________________
IFC Markets / More than just a broker
IFCM is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Anyone Use IFC Markets?? jkane Spread Betting & CFDs 0 Mar 27, 2014 11:33pm

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)