Daily market overview from IFC Markets

This is a discussion on Daily market overview from IFC Markets within the Economic & Fundamental Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; US stocks edged lower on Monday as the dollar weakened against major currencies . The dollar continued falling after Fedís ...

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Old Mar 24, 2015, 5:33pm   #73
Joined Oct 2014
Markets retreat as dollar declines

IFCM started this thread US stocks edged lower on Monday as the dollar weakened against major currencies. The dollar continued falling after Fedís statement last week pushed back expectations of interest rate hike as the central bank lowered its forecast of median interest rates to 0.625 percent from 1.125 percent by the end of 2015 and revised downward US growth outlook. On Monday Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said that the interest rate hike will likely happen before the end of the year and the pace of interest rate hikes would not be uniform or predictable. He emphasized that the Fed will be making decisions based on economic data and will not be following a predetermined plan. He warned that investors shouldnít expect a repeat of the 17 rate increases at consecutive FOMC meetings starting in 2004. He mentioned that officials are waiting for the April 3 monthly employment report after two positive reports in the first quarter of 2015. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said a discussion should happen mid-year about raising interest rates. The ICE US Dollar Index, a measure of the dollarís strength against a basket of six rival currencies, was down about 1% to 97.00. Sales of existing homes rose 1.2% in February, less than expected. Today at 13:30 CET March inflation data will be released in US. The tentative outlook is positive for the dollar. At 14:00 CET January Housing Price Index will be published. The tentative outlook is negative. And at 14:45 CET advance Manufacturing PMI for March will be released by Markit. The tentative outlook is negative.

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European stocks retreated on Monday from multi-year highs as investors took profits amid worries over Greece. The Stoxx Europe 600 lost 0.9%. DAX lost 1.2 % as automaker stocks slipped with Volkswagen down 3.4 % while Peugeot declined 2.3 %. Euro advanced against dollar. After meeting Greeceís Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras Angela Merkel indicated that Greece still has to secure the approval of international creditors for its economic reform program before any more aid will be released. It was reported earlier that finance ministers could gather as early as March 27 to approve a payment if Greece submits acceptable reform proposal. Merkel gave no indication that the meeting will happen. Today from 9:00 to 10:00 CET advance March Manufacturing and Services PMI for France and Germany will be released by Markit. The tentative outlook is positive for euro. At 10:30 CET March inflation data will be released in UK. The tentative outlook is negative for pound.

Nikkei is falling today as investors took profits after Chinese factory activity in March unexpectedly fell to an 11-month low as indicated by HSBC/Markit PMI release.

Oil prices rose on Monday helped by weaker dollar. The West Texas Intermediate oil May futures gained 1.9% and settled at $47.45 a barrel, the highest settlement for a most-active contract since March 11. May Brent crude oil added 1.1% and ended at $55.92 a barrel. As CFTC data indicate, investors reduced net long positions in WTI for the fourth consecutive week, to 144,000 contracts, the lowest level since March 2013.

April natural gas fell 1.9% to $2.733 per million British thermal units on Nymex.

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Gold prices advanced on Monday for a fourth session in a row on back of declining US dollar and amid concerns over Greeceís debt problems.
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Old Mar 25, 2015, 5:00pm   #74
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World markets diverge on better than expected indicators

IFCM started this thread US stocks fell for the second consecutive day on Tuesday as better than expected economic statistics pointed to increased likelihood of interest rate hike. The US consumer-price index rose a 0.2% in February. CPI recorded the first monthly increase since October as rebounding gasoline prices and rising cost of food and shelter pushed consumer prices higher. Core CPI increased 0.2% for the second consecutive month versus expected increase of 0.1%. New home sales increased 7.8% in February to 539,000 to mark the best month of sales in seven years. US house prices rose 0.3% in January as indicated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency Housing Price Index. And Markit's Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose in March to 55.3 from 55.1 in February, recording the highest reading since October. Investors are concerned that improving economic indicators will prompt the Fed to increase the borrowing costs sooner rather than later as policy makers indicated last Wednesday they would be making decisions based on future performance of US economy. The dollar advanced with the ICE US Dollar Index, a measure of the dollarís strength against a basket of six currencies, gaining 0.1% to 97.1890. Today at 13:30 CET the February Durable Goods Orders will be released. The tentative outlook is positive.

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European stocks rose after better than expected business surveys from Germany and France indicated euro-zone economy is on track to recovery and euroís slide against the dollar resumed. The Stoxx Europe 600 added 0.3%. Markitís Composite PMI for euro-zone, a gauge of both the manufacturing and services sectors, rose to 54.1 in March, a 46-month high. Germany's DAX 30, which is up about 20 percent since the start of the year, rose 0.9 percent. European equities have rallied since the start of the stimulus program of the European Central Bank to buy 60 billion euros a month in government debt and other assets, which drives euro lower, making goods of European exporters cheaper for overseas consumers. Also, lower yields on bonds make equities more attractive for investment and part of the additional liquidity ECB pumps into the economy ends up in stock markets, pushing equities higher. Today at 10:00 CET March Ifo Business Climate Index will be released in Germany. The tentative outlook is positive.

Nikkei edged up today as investors purchased stocks before they go ex-dividend later this week. Nikkei has added 13 percent since the start of this year as Bank of Japanís monetary stimulus program has weakened yen and helped boost the revenues of Japanís export oriented economy.

Oil prices diverged on Tuesday as West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in May inched higher 0.1% on Nymex while May Brent crude on Londonís ICE Futures exchange fell 1.5%. The Brent-WTI spread is at $7.72 a barrel. Investors are closely watching the Iranian nuclear deal negotiations, as resumption of oil exports from Iran may further add to the global oversupply of around 1.5 million barrels a day. Today at 15:30 CET Crude Oil Inventories for the week ended March 20 will be released by the Energy Information Administration, further build-up of inventories is expected.

Sugar prices are falling as world market is expected to see a fifth consecutive market surplus for the 2014-2015 crop year. They have fallen more than 85% over the past 5 years.

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Old Mar 26, 2015, 10:54am   #75
Joined Oct 2014
Markets tumble as investors take profits on bearish news

IFCM started this thread US stocks tumbled on Wednesday as investors sold off technology and biotech stocks amid worries about expected low earnings in first-quarter earnings season. Profits are forecast to decline for the first time since 2009, and investors booked gains with stocks trading at historically high valuations - the S&P 500 trades at 18.36 times earnings, compared with a trailing five-year average of 15.64 times . The S&P 500 fell 1.5%, declining for three consecutive days with nine out of its ten main sectors finishing sharply lower. Energy sector stocks closed higher as oil prices rebounded after fighting in Yemen intensified. Nasdaq Composite plunged 2.4%, recording the steepest decline since April 2014, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.6% and turned negative for the year. Orders for durable goods unexpectedly dropped in February for a sixth straight month, indicating that businesses are reluctant to invest, and first-quarter GDP will be weak. The dollar traded lower against major currencies. Today at 13:30 CET Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims will be released in US. The tentative outlook is positive. At 14:00 CET FOMC member Lockhart will speak on economic outlook and monetary policy in Detroit. And at 14:45 CET advance Services PMI for March will be released. The tentative outlook is negative.

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European stocks fell on Wednesday as euro continued strengthening against the dollar. The Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 1.1%, with only the energy sector advancing. Greece failed to secure a quick cash payment from the euro zone rescue fund. Germanyís DAX 30 lost 1.2% despite the Ifo instituteís better than expected report on business sentiment. The DAX 30 has surged 21% this year helped by depreciating euro since the launch of the European Central Bankís asset-purchase program worth 1.1 trillion euros ($1.21 trillion). Stronger euro negatively impacts exporters as it makes euro-zone goods more expensive for overseas consumers. German Consumer Confidence index for April came in today outperforming expectations. No important economic data are expected in euro-zone today. At 10:30 CET Retail Sales will be released in UK. The tentative outlook is positive for the Pound.

Nikkei dropped today as investors followed the Wall Streetís lead and sold off semiconductor and hi-tech shares. It is worth noting that Nikkei has recorded 11 percent gains this quarter supported by stock purchases of public pension funds, such as the Government Pension Investment Fund, and weaker yen. Investors expect the wage rises that Japanese blue chip companies announced last week will also underpin the market by boosting domestic consumption, as early data showed an average hike of 3,013 yen in base salaries per month, roughly 75 percent bigger than last year's increase.

Oil prices surged on Wednesday as concerns about oil shipments in Middle East came to forefront with Western-backed Yemen President fleeing the southern city of Aden after militants came closer to seizing the city. Also, expectations that a deal over Iranís nuclear program will not be reached this week and the dollarís recent weakness provided additional support to oil prices.

Gold prices rose for the sixth consecutive day after weaker than expected durable goods orders in US indicated lower likelihood of interest rate hike in near term.

Copper prices fell on lower demand concerns after disappointing US orders for durable goods. Copper May futures price has dropped 7.1 percent in the past 12 months amid signs of slower economic growth in China.

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Old Mar 30, 2015, 5:24pm   #76
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Positive EUR/USD mid-term forecast

IFCM started this thread After the 4-day fall American stocks have increased on Friday due to corporate releases. Intel shares rose 6.4% on the report it was going to acquire Altera (+28.4%). EUR/USD didnít show remarkable movement. Fed chair Janet Yellen stated that low core inflation and a very slow surge in income make it possible to postpone rate hike. Most market participants expect it to happen in October rather than in July. Making a Forex, forecast we may predict that USD bullish momentum will weaken. 100 level may become a technical resistance line for US Dollar Index.

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American macroeconomic data were mixed on Friday: Consumer Confidence outstripped forecasts while final GDP was slightly worse-than-expected. The trading volume on American stocks was 16.5% below the monthly average. During the previous week S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq lost 2.2%, 2.3% and 2.7% respectively. At 14:30 CET Personal spending for February will be announced. At 16:00 Pending Home sales will bee released. The outlook is positive. Futures on American stock indices and European shares are growing as US Dollar index inches higher.

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European FTSEuorofirst has added 1.2% today. At 11:00 CET eurozone Consumer Confidence and Business Climate Indicator were released. Technology companies' shares take the lead, following Intel-Altera merger deal information. However, unsettled Greek question produces a negative affect. Greek ATG has lost 1.4% today Most investors believe that Greece will have sufficient money only til April, 20. The country will have to find the solution to its financial problems up to this moment. Today at 14:00 CET Inflation for March will be announced in Germany. According to our forecast, the deflation risk will be reduced and the data will appear to be positive. European market may show a record growth since 2009.

Nikkei has expanded today together with other stock indices, despite negative Industrial Production in February. Last week Nikkei index declined for the first time, following 10 straight weeks of surge. As we mentioned in our previous overviews, State Pension Fund and private investors allocated their investment in domestic stocks and reduced the share in government bonds. This sounds logical to us, if to take into consideration the continuing monetary stimulus and low bond yields. Tomorrow at 7:00 CET Housing Starts and Construction orders will be released in Japan.

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Despite the postponed rate hike, gold quotes have been retreating two consequent days. FRS explains the decision by stating that macroeconomic statistics became better. It is probable that economic recovery together with the inching dollar resulted in gold prices pulling back. Stabilizing political situation in Yemen has put additional pressure on gold. To be noted, mixed sentiment on gold market has increased the number of forward trades to its high since 1999. They are opened by gold-mining companies that are concerned with the probable decrease in prices. In our opinion, that may drive up gold quotes in the future.

Oil prices have dropped today on the back of negotiations on Iranian nuclear programme. That may boost Iranian oil exports. It is worth mentioning that Libya also reported it would raise the supply.
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Old Mar 31, 2015, 4:00pm   #77
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Markets advance as China announces new stimulus measures

IFCM started this thread US stocks advanced on Monday as investorsí confidence was boosted by announcements of new merger deals and dovish remarks by the head of Chinaís central bank and new policy measures to stimulate Chinaís housing market. UnitedHealth Group Inc. agreed to buy pharmacy benefit manager Catamaran Corp for $12.78 billion in cash. Teva Pharmaceutical Ltd. said it would buy Auspex Pharmaceuticals Inc for $3.5 billion. China reduced required down payment for second homes to 40 percent from 60 percent and broadened a sales-tax exemption on Monday for homeowners if they sell after holding a property for two years or more. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.2% and 1.5% respectively. They had lost more than 2 % last week. Economic data indicated that US consumers barely increased spending, which rose a less-than-expected 0.1% in February. This is another sign that US economy slowed in the first quarter. Personal incomes, meanwhile, rose 0.4% in February for the fourth time in five months and the saving rate climbed for the third straight month. Pending home sales for February reached their highest level since June 2013. The ICE US dollar index, a measure of the dollarís strength against a basket of six major currencies, ended up about 0.6% at 97.98. Today at 13:50 CET Fedís Lockhart gives welcome at Georgia conference on Monetary Policy and Financial Stability. At 14:00 CET January Case-Shiller Home Price Index will be released. At 14:45 CET Chicago PMI for March will be released. The tentative outlook is positive for the dollar. At 16:00 CET March Consumer Confidence will be released by the Conference Board. The tentative outlook is neutral.

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European stocks rose on Monday as investor optimism was bolstered by encouraging economic data, the prospect of more easing in China and sliding euro. The Stoxx Europe 600 index climbed 1.1%. Germanyís DAX 30 index rallied 1.8%, helped by weakening euro. Inflation data showed consumer prices in Germany grew 0.3% year-over-year in March, up from 0.1% in February. Economic confidence in the euro-zone rose markedly in March to the highest level since the summer of 2011. At 07:00 CET retail sales were released in Germany, showing a decline on a monthly basis for the first time since September. At 08:55 CET labor market data for March will be released in Germany. At 10:00 CET March consumer price index for euro-zone will be released by Eurostat. The tentative outlook is positive.

Nikkei fell today as investors took profits on the last trading day of the quarter and the last day of the fiscal year. Notwithstanding a sharp drop last week, the benchmark has gained 2.2 percent for the month and posted its three straight monthly gains. Yen continued the slide against the US dollar, which gained 0.8 percent vs yen on Monday for its biggest one-day rise in more than a month. Tomorrow at 00:50 CET in the morning the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey results will be published. The tentative outlook is positive.

Oil prices are falling today on expectations that a possible deal over Iranís nuclear program could result in easing of sanctions and increased exports, exacerbating global oversupply.

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Gold prices are falling after dropping for two consecutive days on Monday as stronger dollar and rising equities are dulling investor demand for the safe haven asset.
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Old Oct 25, 2016, 9:59am   #78
Joined Aug 2011
You might be better looking at a gold miner like Centamin, results are out next week 31st Oct, should be good, no debt,huge cash balance, fantastic output of gold!

Found this on a really informative forum on the London South East site CEY.L forum
http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker
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