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Old Feb 6, 2018, 1:19pm   #169
 
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TifiaFX started this thread NZD/USD: pending RBNZ decision on rates
06/02/2018
Current dynamics

Against the backdrop of negative events taking place in the world stock markets, today's decision of the RB of Australia to keep the current interest rate at the previous level of 1.5% remained almost unnoticed. On Tuesday, at the first meeting this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia left a key interest rate at a record low for the RBA of 1.5%. At this level, the rate has been already in place since mid-2016. The inactivity of the RBA contrasts sharply with the propensity of the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England to tighten monetary and credit policy.
This week, two of the world's largest banks make a decision regarding monetary policy. On Wednesday (20:00 GMT), the RB of New Zealand decides on the interest rate, and on Thursday (12:00 GMT) decision on this matter will be announced by the Bank of England. As expected, both central banks will not change the current monetary policy; the rate in New Zealand will remain at the same level of 1.75%. Earlier in the RBNZ repeatedly stated that against the backdrop of "a lot of uncertainties" monetary policy "will remain soft in the foreseeable future", but "can be adjusted accordingly", if necessary. For a stable recovery in New Zealand's economy and rising inflation, "a lower New Zealand dollar rate is needed".
At 21:00 (GMT) on Wednesday the RBNZ press conference will begin, during which the representative of the RBNZ leadership Grant Spencer, who is the acting manager (his term of office in the RBNZ management came into force on September 27, 2017 and will end on March 26, 2018) , will make an explanation about the decision taken by the bank. His speeches often serve as an unofficial source of information on the further direction of the RBNZ monetary policy. In his view, the country's monetary policy should correlate with the dynamics of employment and financial stability of the state, rather than inflation.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the next dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of +4.9% (against previous values of + 2.2% and + 0.4%). If the prices for dairy products rise again, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen, including in the pair NZD / USD. The decline in world prices for dairy products will hurt the quotations of the New Zealand dollar.
From the news on the United States today, it is worth paying attention to the speech (at 13:50 GMT) of the representative of the Fed and member of the FRS Committee on Open Markets, James Bullard, as well as the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of data on the US foreign trade balance for December. The deficit is expected to grow to -52 billion dollars from -50.5 billion dollars, fixed in November. This is a negative signal for the US dollar.
Thus, if data on the US foreign trade balance point to an increase in the balance deficit, while world prices for dairy products will rise again, we should expect further growth of the NZD / USD pair.

Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7120, 0.7000, 0.6865, 0.6800
Resistance levels: 0.7328, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7250. Stop-Loss 0.7340. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7120, 0.7000, 0.6865, 0.6800
Buy Stop 0.7340. Stop-Loss 0.7250. Take-Profit 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

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Old Feb 7, 2018, 1:01pm   #170
 
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TifiaFX started this thread GBP/USD: pound declines on the eve of the Bank of England meeting, dollar - rising
07/02/2018
Current dynamics

The US stock indexes again decline on Wednesday after some recovery on Tuesday. Futures on the DJIA fell 1% to 24550.0 points, futures for the S & P 500 fell by 1.1% to 2665.0 points. Investors once again buy the dollar on unwillingness to risk after a sharp drop in shares in recent days. At the beginning of the European session, the dollar strengthened against euro-currencies, including against the pound. However, with large-scale purchases of the dollar is worthwhile to wait.
Apparently, few investors pointed out yesterday's publication of data pointing to a "significant deterioration" in the US trade balance. Data showed that in December, the foreign trade deficit amounted to 53.1 billion dollars (against the forecast of -52.0 billion and
-50.4 billion dollars in November), reaching the highest level in nine years. This is a strong structural negative factor for the US dollar in the long term.
Earlier, US President Donald Trump was extremely negative about the huge US foreign trade deficit, explaining this, in particular, by an expensive dollar. And he's right. An expensive national currency makes goods produced in a given country less competitive on the external market.
Back at the end of last month, the White House decided to impose restrictions on the importation of certain imported goods in the US produced in Asian countries. And a statement by US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, who said that "the weakening of the dollar is favorable for trade", caused an even weaker dollar. If the upward trend in the deficit persists, then this may heighten investor fears of trade protectionism, which the administration of President Donald Trump promises to implement. And this is a negative factor for the dollar.
Meanwhile, the pound is down on the eve of tomorrow's meeting of the Bank of England. It is expected that the Bank of England will maintain the current soft monetary policy, given the slowdown in the most important sectors of the British economy, but may signal a stronger tendency of the Bank of England to tighten monetary and credit policy, including because of sharply increased inflation.
It is characteristic that today the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has raised the forecast for GDP growth in the UK in 2018 to 1.9% against the November forecast of 1.7%. NIESR also expects that the Bank of England will raise the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May and will continue to raise it every six months until the rate reaches 2%. It is expected that the annual inflation of consumer prices, which in December was 3%, will fall to 2% over the next eight quarters.
On Tuesday, the House of Representatives of the US Congress approved a bill that will extend government funding until March 23. Uncertainty about the approval of the lower house of the US Congress until Friday of government funding can put pressure on the dollar.
Thus, the fall of the GBP / USD against the background of the current recovery of the US dollar creates favorable conditions for buying the British pound against the dollar, already from current levels, below the level of 1.4000.

Support levels: 1.3875, 1.3835, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210
Resistance levels: 1.3970, 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4270, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3850. Stop-Loss 1.3940. Take-Profit 1.3835, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210
Buy Stop 1.3940. Stop-Loss 1.3850. Take-Profit 1.3970, 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4270, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575
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Old Feb 8, 2018, 12:27pm   #171
 
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TifiaFX started this thread Nikkey225: The Bank of Japan will continue a large-scale economic softening program
08/02/2018
Current dynamics

As the Customs Department of Japan announced today, Japan's foreign trade surplus rose by 16.2 billion yen in December to 583.9 billion yen in annual terms (the previous value was 181.0 billion yen and the forecast was expected to increase to 567.7 billion yen). The economy of Japan is highly dependent on exports, and as a result, the growth of trade surplus indicates the growth of the country's economy. The growth in demand for Japanese exports leads to a positive growth in the trade balance, replenishment of the state budget and is a positive factor for JPY and for the Japanese stock market, although, as a rule, the yen and the stock market of Japan are moving in opposite directions.
Even today, despite the weakening of the yen, the main Japanese stock index Nikkey225 rose during the Asian session. Nevertheless, although the Japanese Nikkei has grown today, the index can still record the worst weekly dynamics in two years. Following the results of bidding in Asia, the Nikkei225 climbed 1.1% to 21890.00 points on the background of the growth of most export sectors. However, investors so far prefer to refrain from buying shares of leading export companies because of fears about volatility in the US.
"We must not allow ourselves to be influenced by the decline in the stock markets that we have just witnessed", Jens Weidman, president of the Bundesbank, said in a statement on Thursday that "the US stock indices grew for a long time without noticeable correction".
Head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda hastened to calm investors today, saying that the Japanese central bank will continue a large-scale mitigation program, as inflation is still far from the target level of 2%. "It's too early to discuss the timing and methods of getting out of soft politics. We will continue to buy ETF, REIT at the current pace", Kuroda added. This, in practice, is already traditional in recent months, the statement of the head of the Bank of Japan on "readiness for the most decisive measures to support the Japanese economy". In December, Kuroda also said that "the leadership of the Bank of Japan will further support the cycle of revenue growth, supporting a moderate increase in wages and prices".
The board member of the Bank of Japan Hitoshi Suzuki supported Kuroda today, noting that "the conditions necessary to further accelerate the rate of price growth" are created, thanks to a strong labor market, as well as government efforts to raise wages and increase productivity.
Meanwhile, sales in the market of long-term state bonds continued, and the yield of 10-year Japanese bonds rose by 1 point to 0.08%. The yield of 10-year US bonds is also today near the maximum of 2.825%, reached at the beginning of this week (2.858%), the maximum level for the last four years. Investors remain cautious after the strongest fluctuations in recent days in international financial markets. The CBOE volatility index is at the beginning of today's European session near the mark of 27.75, after it jumped on Tuesday to a value of 50.00, which is several times higher than the usual range near the marks of 10.00 and 19.00.

Support levels: 21720.00, 21490.00, 21140.00, 20950.00
Resistance levels: 21920.00, 22300.00, 23020.00, 23400.00, 24200.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 21600.00. Stop-Loss 22020.00. Objectives 21490.00, 21140.00, 20950.00
Buy Stop 22020.00. Stop-Loss 21600.00. Objectives 22300.00, 23020.00, 23400.00, 24200.00
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Old Feb 9, 2018, 1:04pm   #172
 
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TifiaFX started this thread AUD/USD: there are no arguments in favor of raising RBA interest rates
09/02/2018
Current dynamics

Unlike the Fed, other major global central banks are in no hurry to tighten their monetary policies. After earlier this week the RB of Australia and the RB of New Zealand decided not to change their interest rates, on Thursday another central bank, the Bank of England, decided to leave the interest rate at the current level of 0.5%, which coincided with the expectations of market participants. The rhetoric of the accompanying statements and comments of representatives of these banks was also mild.
In a tone to these statements on Thursday, the leaders of the Bank of Japan also spoke. Thus, the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda said that the Japanese central bank will continue the large-scale mitigation program, since inflation is still far from the target level of 2%. "It's too early to discuss the timing and methods of getting out of soft politics. We will continue to buy ETF, REIT at the current pace", Kuroda added. Board Member of the Bank of Japan Hitoshi Suzuki supported Kuroda, noting that "the conditions necessary to further accelerate the rate of price growth" are created, thanks to a strong labor market, as well as the government's efforts to increase wages and increase productivity.
During today's Asian session, the RBA published comments on its decision to keep the interest rate at the current level. The key rate of the RBA remains at a record low for the RBA of 1.5% since mid-2016, and economists believe that the central bank will not change it after 2019.
The Reserve Bank of Australia predicts the retention of slow inflation and the inability to achieve full employment over the next few years. The RBA expects that core inflation will accelerate gradually and reach the lower boundary of the target range of 2% -3% by mid-2019. And the pace of core inflation is critical for the RBA monetary policy. The main source of uncertainty for the RBA remains the slow growth of wages. Acceleration of wage growth is a prerequisite for achieving the target inflation range of 2% -3%. The RBA gave a forecast for unemployment - 5.25% by the end of 2018. Currently, the unemployment rate is 5.5%. Thus, unemployment will remain above 5%, which, according to the RBA, does not correspond to full employment and significantly reduces the need for monetary tightening, despite the fact that economic growth in the country will accelerate and by mid-2019 will be 3.5% per annum.
Thus, the RBA's forecasts reflect the comments of the managing director Philip Lowe, who on Thursday said there was no argument in favor of raising interest rates in the short term.
At the same time, the Fed, it seems, does not intend to back away from its plans to tighten monetary policy. So, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and the member of the FOMC with the right to vote, Esther George, said on Thursday that the Committee on Open Market Operations now intends to raise rates three times this year and three times in 2019. According to her, "this is a logical basic scenario in case the prospects do not change significantly".
Despite the fact that many economists are skeptical about the current strengthening of the US dollar, considering that its growth will be short-term and provide opportunities for its sale at higher levels, a more accurate long-term trading strategy for the AUD / USD will be a short position.
Against the background of a different focus of monetary policy in the US and Australia, we can expect further decline in the AUD/USD.

Support levels: 0.7780, 0.7750, 0.7620, 0.7500, 0.7330
Resistance levels: 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000, 0.8130

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7740. Stop-Loss 0.7830. Take-Profit 0.7700, 0.7620, 0.7500, 0.7330
Buy Stop 0.7830. Stop-Loss 0.7740. Take-Profit 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000, 0.8130

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Old Feb 12, 2018, 12:51pm   #173
 
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TifiaFX started this thread S&P500: Investors are trying to understand the movements on the market
12/02/2018
Current dynamics

The main US stock indexes today continued their recovery. By the beginning of today's European session, the US stock indexes about half recovered losses suffered last week, which became the worst in the past few years. The recovery began on Friday evening.
Risks of faster monetary tightening by the Fed on the background of expectations of the intensification of inflation provoked fluctuations in the stock markets in the last two weeks.
If inflation really increases, the Fed will be forced to raise interest rates faster in order to keep the situation under control and avoid hyperinflation. And this will lead to an increase in the yield of government bonds, which may affect the growth of the market of more risky assets.
After a brief consolidation of the indices at current levels, bears can undertake a new assault. The yield of 10-year US bonds is growing again, updating the absolute highs, and is at the beginning of today's European session near the 2.900% mark, the maximum level for the last four years. The yield of government bonds is growing, which makes it easier for the Fed to raise interest rates, which is a negative factor for the stock market.
The CBOE volatility index, the so-called "Wall Street fear index," rose again on Friday to record values after the 2008 crisis, to the level of 41.00. Last Tuesday, this index jumped to the value of 50.00, which is much higher than the usual range, formed in recent months, between the marks of 9.00 and 19.00.
Investors try to understand the sharp and deep movements taking place on the market in order to evaluate them either as a technical correction after prolonged growth, or as a result of a deeper reassessment of the financial situation.
In the beginning of the week, investors will monitor the data on the state of the US budget (will be published on Monday 19:00 GMT), as well as on retail sales and consumer prices for January (on Wednesday 13:30 GMT), which could affect the dynamics of the US stock market.
Also, as usual, on Thursday (13:30 GMT) weekly data from the US labor market will be published, namely, the number of primary (forecast - 237,000 against 221,000) and secondary applications for unemployment. The result higher than expected will indicate a weakening of the labor market, which will negatively affect the US dollar in the short term.

Support levels: 2630.0, 2610.0, 2560.0, 2530.0
Resistance levels: 2695.0, 2730.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2618.0. Stop-Loss 2670.0. Objectives 2610.0, 2560.0, 2530.0
Buy Stop 2670.0 Stop-Loss 2618.0. Objectives 2695.0, 2730.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

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Old Feb 13, 2018, 12:39pm   #174
 
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TifiaFX started this thread DJIA: investors remain cautious
13/02/2018
Current dynamics

On Monday, all three major US stock indexes rose for the second consecutive session, returning some of the losses incurred during the two previous weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average grew by 1.7% to 24601.00 points, the S&P500 - by 1.4% to 2,666.00 points, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.6% to 6981.00 points.
Earlier in the US, and after and in all world stock markets, there was a sharp collapse in the indices. So, S&P500 lost over 5% last week due to signs of strengthening inflation and higher yields on government bonds, and the volatility index CBOE, or VIX, rose by almost 70% in the whole week, jumping to a mark of 50.00, a record high after the crisis of 2008.
The risks of a more rapid monetary policy tightening on the part of the Fed on the background of expectations of increased inflation provoked fluctuations in the stock markets over the past two weeks. Investors were also alarmed by the growth in the yield of US government bonds. Thus, the yield on 10-year US bonds on Monday reached new absolute highs near the 2.900% mark, the maximum values for the last four years. The increase in bond yields in early 2018 was one of the reasons for the decline in world stock markets. Profitability can grow even more on the background of the normalization of monetary policy and the further strengthening of the world economy. The growth of yield of government bonds facilitates the task of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The stock market would quietly transfer one or two rate hikes. Last year, the former head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, stated that an increase in the interest rate alone is not enough to turn the bull stock market, but that would be another confirmation of the strength of the US economy.
Now buyers of risky assets of the stock market are confused, as a faster rate increase could slow or stop further growth of stock indices. Investors are still cautious after the sharp sales observed last week, and world stock markets are falling again on Tuesday.
Nevertheless, US stock indices are above critical support levels. Despite the fluctuations, last week created opportunities for profitable purchases, according to optimistic investors. The principle of "buy on the rumor, sell on facts", it seems, can work and this time. At least, it has already worked in part - "sell on facts".

Support levels: 24050.0, 23800.0, 23200.0, 23000.0, 22450.0
Resistance levels: 24820.0, 25200.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 24970.0. Stop-Loss 24240.0. Take-Profit 25200.0, 26600.0
Sell Stop 24240.0. Stop-Loss 24970.0. Take-Profit 24050.0, 23800.0, 23200.0

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Old Feb 14, 2018, 1:09pm   #175
 
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TifiaFX started this thread S&P500: on the eve of the publication of inflation data
14/02/2018
Current dynamics

While investors are waiting for the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of important macro data from the US, US stock indexes continue to recover after a record fall in the previous two weeks. On the eve of the leading US indices for the third time in a row completed the trading in the market in positive territory.
Among the data published at 13:30 the most important inflation indicators will be. So, it is expected that the basic inflation increased in January by 1.7% (in annual terms). If the forecast is justified, the stock indexes will continue to recover, but if inflation is higher, then tension will return to the markets.
Probably, the best scenario for buyers of the assets of the stock market today will be weak inflation data and strong - on retail sales in the US.
Moreover, according to many economists, even if the inflation data in the US prove to be strong, this will not change the negative attitude towards the dollar. Against this background, the recovery of the US stock market is likely to continue after today's publication of macro data. Against the backdrop of low inflationary pressures in 2017, US stock indexes reached new record highs.
If inflation significantly exceeds forecasts, the Fed may need to increase interest rates four times in 2018. In this case, the stock markets have a chance to confirm the worst forecasts and resume the decline.
Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year US bonds is growing again and is currently at the level of 2.842%, slightly below the 2.900% mark reached two days ago, the highest level in the last four years. With the increase in the yield of government bonds, the Fed is easier to raise interest rates.
The most cautious traders today, perhaps, prefer to go into the cache. A surge in volatility in the financial markets is expected during the publication (13:30 GMT) of the data.

Support levels: 2630.0, 2614.0, 2565.0, 2530.0
Resistance levels: 2682.0, 2723.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2660.0. Stop-Loss 2688.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2614.0, 2565.0, 2530.0
Buy Stop 2688.0 Stop-Loss 2660.0. Objectives 2723.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

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Old Feb 15, 2018, 12:59pm   #176
 
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TifiaFX started this thread Brent: oil prices have corrected after a many-day fall
15/02/2018
Current dynamics

Despite the fact that oil and oil products stocks in the US raised again last week, oil prices on Wednesday rose after a many-day drop from the level of $ 70.00 per barrel of Brent crude oil. At the beginning of the month, the oil market was under pressure amid a decline in world stock indices and an increase in oil production in the US.
As reported on Wednesday in the US Department of Energy, oil reserves in the US last week increased by 1.8 million barrels (the forecast was + 2.6 million barrels). The American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday reported an increase in reserves of 3.9 million barrels. Brent crude at ICE went up $ 1.64 on Wednesday, or 2.6%, to $ 64.36 a barrel.
Growth in oil prices on Wednesday also was contributed by the media reports that Saudi Arabia confirmed its commitment to the plan to limit the supply. "We believe that it is better for us to take redundant steps (to reduce supply) and ensure the restoration of the balance of the market", Saudi Energy Minister Khaled Al-Falih said at a press conference in Riyadh. In November, OPEC extended the deal to limit the offer until the end of 2018, and the cartel agreed to reevaluate the transaction in the middle of the year.
The renewed weakening of the dollar and growth in stock exchanges also supports oil prices in the current situation. On Wednesday, the dollar showed a large decline after it published disappointing data on retail sales in the US in January. Despite the fact that inflation accelerated in January, retail sales in January fell by 0.3%, which was the strongest drop in almost a year (the forecast assumed growth of retail sales in January by 0.2%).
After the publication of disappointing data on retail sales, economists lowered forecasts for US GDP growth in the first quarter of 2018. Based on the data presented this week, it can be concluded that the budget deficit and the deficit of US foreign trade are growing, and the risks of slowing GDP growth are also increasing. This could be an important factor that increases the Fed's predilection for maintaining a soft monetary policy.
Nevertheless, on Friday, the oil market may again be under pressure if the data on the number of operating drilling rigs in the United States indicate the next increase in the number of installations, and, consequently, the growth of oil production. The weekly report from the American oil service company Baker Hughes on the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US will be presented at 18:00 (GMT). At the moment, their number is 791 units. The positive dynamics of both the growth in the number of active drilling rigs in the United States and the volume of oil production prevails, which is a strong deterrent for the further growth of oil prices.

Support levels: 64.00, 63.00, 61.50, 59.50, 56.50
Resistance levels: 64.85, 66.50, 68.00, 69.00, 70.00, 70.75

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 63.90. Stop-Loss 64.90. Take-Profit 63.00, 61.50, 59.50, 56.50
Buy Stop 64.90. Stop-Loss 63.90. Take-Profit 66.50, 68.00, 69.00, 70.00
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