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Old Apr 11, 2017, 4:27pm   #16
 
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TifiaFX started this thread USD/CAD: Bank of Canada interest rate decision
11/04/2017
Current dynamics

The era of the extremely soft monetary policy of the US central bank is coming to an end. This was announced on Monday by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, stressing that "now the Fed gives the economy the opportunity to move by inertia, measuredly."
Published on Wednesday, the minutes of the March meeting of the Fed showed that the leaders of the Central Bank are inclined to start reducing the portfolio of treasury and mortgage bonds amounting to 4.5 trillion dollars. Many economists equate the reduction in the Fed's balance sheet to a tightening of monetary policy. This process, as a rule, leads to an increase in the value of the dollar. Sales of state bonds can pull up their profitability and the dollar.
Janet Yellen confirmed yesterday that the interest rate in the US will reach about 3% within two years (currently the current range is 0.75% -1.00%).
Janet Yellen also believes that in other developed countries, economic growth and inflation are recovering and, probably, central banks will begin to wind down stimulating programs.
In this regard, it will be interesting to find out tomorrow's decision of the Bank of Canada on the interest rate, which is published at 14:00 (GMT).
The current rate in Canada is 0.5%. Canada is a net exporter of oil, and oil is the country's main export commodity. The Canadian dollar, while remaining a commodity currency, is sensitive to oil quotations. The price of oil since the end of last month adjusted for 10% after the recent fall and continues to grow amid disruptions in supplies in Canada and Libya. At the same time, the Canadian dollar, which has a correlation with oil prices of 92%, since the middle of last month, practically stands still.
If tomorrow the Bank of Canada only hinted at the possibility of an early increase in the interest rate in Canada, the Canadian dollar will strengthen sharply in the foreign exchange market, including in the pair USD / CAD.
Conversely, the expressed tendency of the Bank of Canada to continue soft monetary policy will contribute to the weakening of the Canadian dollar.
In any case, during the publication of the Bank of Canada decision on the rate, the highest volatility is expected in the Canadian dollar and USD / CAD trades.

Support and resistance levels
Since the middle of last month, the pair USD / CAD is trading, mainly in the range between support levels 1.3300 and resistance 1.3430. At the moment, the pair USD / CAD found support near the levels 1.3340 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3315 (the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics do not give clear signals. A lot in the dynamics of the pair USD / CAD will depend on tomorrow's decision of the Bank of Canada on the rate and accompanying comments.
If the support level breaks 1.3300, the pair USD / CAD will go to support level 1.3240 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
The reverse scenario assumes a breach of the short-term resistance level of 1.3375 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and further growth in the uplink on the daily chart with targets of 1.3430, 1.3590.
Support levels: 1.3315, 1.3300, 1.3240, 1.3200, 1.3155, 1.3100, 1.3010, 1.2840, 1.2760, 1.2635
Levels of resistance: 1.3375, 1.3430, 1.3590, 1.3680

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 1.3360. Stop-Loss 1.3320. Take-Profit 1.3375, 1.3430, 1.3590, 1.3680
Sell Stop 1.3320. Stop-Loss 1.3360. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3240, 1.3200, 1.3155, 1.3100, 1.3010, 1.2840, 1.2760, 1.2635

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Old Apr 12, 2017, 10:15am   #17
 
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TifiaFX started this thread XAU / USD: gold is rising in price
12/04/2017
Overview and dynamics

The continuing geopolitical tensions continue to put pressure on profitable but risky assets, forcing investors to withdraw funds into safer assets - yen, government bonds, gold. June gold futures on the basis of trading on COMEX rose by 1.5% to 1,272.00 dollars per troy ounce, the highest level since early November. Quotes of gold rose to new annual and monthly highs. This year, gold prices rose by about 10%. At the beginning of the European session, the spot price for gold is near the mark of 1275.00, and prices do not seem to be going to retreat.
Gold began to rise sharply after it became known about the US missile strikes in Syria at the end of last week. And now, despite the Fed's tough position to raise the interest rate and reduce its balance of $ 4.5 trillion, gold is rising in price.
Gold is cheaper in the situation of an increase in the interest rate in the US, t. It is difficult for him to compete with interest-bearing assets. The cost of its acquisition and storage with a tightening of monetary policy is growing.
According to some economists, gold will grow this year in price above $ 1,300 per troy ounce and to $ 1,400 in 2018.
The focus of traders today will be a speech by US President Donald Trump (10:00 GMT) and the publication of the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision (14:00 GMT). A little later (15:15), the Bank of Canada's press conference will begin, and at 20:15 the speech of the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz will begin.
Today, the highest volatility in the foreign exchange market is expected, especially at the above time intervals.

Technical analysis
The pair XAU / USD has closely approached the upper border of the rising channel on the daily chart and the level of 1276.00 (the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016). Since mid-March, against the background of the weakening of the dollar, the pair XAU / USD is actively growing, blocking the decline observed at the beginning of last month.
The price of gold has reached the next annual maximum near the current mark. As long as the pair XAU / USD is above the support levels of 1233.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level of 50.0%), it keeps positive dynamics.
The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts are on the buyers side.
The closest target in case of breakdown of the level of 1276.00 and continuation of the growth of the pair XAU / USD will be 1300.00.
The reverse scenario will be associated with breakdown of support levels of 1263.00 and further decrease to key support levels of 1248.00, 1233.00. Securing the pair XAU / USD below the level of 1220.00 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2%) will cancel the uptrend.
Support levels: 1251.00, 1248.00, 1238.00, 1233.00, 1220.00, 1200.00, 1185.00
Levels of resistance: 1276.00, 1280.00

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1268.00. Stop-Loss 1278.00. Take-Profit 1251.00, 1248.00, 1238.00, 1233.00
Buy Stop 1278.00. Stop-Loss 1268.00. Take-Profit 1280.00, 1290.00, 1300.0
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Old Apr 13, 2017, 11:19am   #18
 
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TifiaFX started this thread Brent: oil reserves in the US declined, but ...
13/04/2017
Current dynamics

Despite the reduction in oil reserves in the US storage facilities, oil prices fell on Wednesday. The price of Brent crude oil lost about $ 0.7 per barrel for yesterday. As reported on Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, crude oil and petroleum products in the US last week fell by 2.166 million barrels (forecasted to increase by 0.087 million barrels). The fall in the price of oil, which is denominated in US dollars, did not even stop the sharp decline in the dollar in the foreign exchange market. The dollar began to fall on Wednesday at the end of the US trading session after Trump told The Wall Street Journal that the dollar is becoming "too strong" and the country "is very, very difficult to compete when the dollar is strong and other countries are lowering the value of their currencies ".
According to analysts of the oil market, the decline in oil prices could be due to the closure of long positions on oil and profit-taking on the eve of the holiday weekend. Tomorrow on Good Friday, trading in oil markets will not be held.
Also, the rise in oil prices could stop after the release of US data, according to which the country's oil production last week reached a maximum in more than a year. Now, production in the US has grown for the eighth week in a row. Oil production in the US in March increased to 9 million barrels per day against 8.6 million barrels per day in September last year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) noted.
Oil prices rose by about 20% from the end of last year after OPEC and the 11 largest oil-producing countries outside the cartel, including Russia, agreed to cut their total output by 1.8 million barrels per day for six months. Quotas are currently being observed almost 100%.
Nevertheless, the active growth of oil production outside the cartel, primarily in the US, negates OPEC's efforts to contain the fall in oil prices against the backdrop of an overabundance of oil supply in the world.
Since the middle of last month, rising oil prices have resumed against the backdrop of a falling dollar and interruptions in oil supplies from Libya and Canada. If the dollar begins to recover its positions in the foreign exchange market, then the fall in oil prices may resume.
As predicted by the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to the monthly report, the world growth rate of oil demand in 2017 will slow for the second consecutive year. The agency predicts that oil production in the US by the end of this year will grow by 680,000 barrels per day compared with the end of 2016. Oil production outside OPEC this year could thus increase by 485,000 barrels per day.
On Friday at 20:00 (GMT + 3) will be published data from the American oil service company Baker Hughes Inc. for the number of active drilling platforms in the US. It is likely that the number of active drilling rigs in the US, which has been growing since June for several months in a row and currently stands at 672 units, will grow again. And this will be another negative factor for oil prices. The number of oil drilling rigs almost doubled after reaching a minimum in May last year. The US Energy Ministry expects further growth in oil production in the country.

Support and resistance levels
Despite the resumption of growth since the middle of last month, the price for Brent crude is below the highs reached after the OPEC deal to cut production. The price is again in the zone of strong resistance level 55.60 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
On the weekly chart, the price is rising in the uplink, and the OsMA and Stochastic indicators are on the buyers’ side. On the daily chart, the price is on the upper boundary of the descending channel, and the indicators unfold to short positions. The picture is controversial.
If the short-term 54.90 support level is broken (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), a decline to support levels of 54.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart, as well as EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart), 53.00 (June and October highs) is possible. In the case of a confirmed breakdown of the support level of 50.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) and fixing below the level of 50.00, the upward trend in the price for Brent crude oil will be canceled.
Update yesterday's highs near the mark of 56.80 will indicate a further increase in the price of Brent crude oil.
Support levels: 55.60, 54.90, 54.00, 53.00, 52.00, 50.70
Resistance levels: 56.80, 57.00, 57.50

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 55.70. Stop-Loss 56.50. Take-Profit 55.60, 54.90, 54.00, 53.00, 52.00, 50.70
Buy Stop 56.50. Stop-Loss 55.70. Take-Profit 56.80, 57.00, 57.50

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Old Apr 14, 2017, 11:03am   #19
 
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TifiaFX started this thread EUR/USD: in financial markets flat
14/04/2017
Current dynamics

In connection with the Easter holidays today in financial markets flat. Trades on European and American trading floors are not held. Trading volumes are low.
After a sharp decline yesterday, the dollar was able to recover in the pair EUR / USD. After Wednesday afternoon at the end of the trading day, Donald Trump said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that the dollar is becoming "too strong," and American goods are "very, very difficult to compete" in a situation where "other countries reduce the value of their currencies" , the dollar fell sharply in the foreign exchange market.
Investors in the current situation prefer to withdraw their funds into safe assets, such as government bonds, yen, and gold. So, against the background of increased purchases, the yield of US 10-year government bonds fell to 2.237% on Thursday, the lowest level since November 16.
The alarming geopolitical situation in the world is also not conducive to the purchase of risky assets. The euro is also under pressure on the background of the pre-election race in France. If the victory is won by political leaders opposing the euro integration, then, still not recovering from Brexit, the euro can get another strong blow to its positions in the foreign exchange market. Thus, the EUR / USD pair has its own scenario at the moment.
In general, recently, against the background of an abundance of various macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, there is a multidirectional dynamics of the dollar and uncertainty of investors. This, again, increases the demand for safe haven assets. Gold has been growing in price since the middle of last month and is already the fifth consecutive session, updating annual price highs.
Flat in the financial markets can last until Tuesday. Nevertheless, you need to be prepared for unexpected price emissions, and, in any direction against the backdrop of low trading volumes.
Especially, it can happen during the news publication period. We are waiting for the data from the USA today. At 15:30 (GMT + 3) will be published inflationary consumer price indices and retail sales in the US for March. Strong data will help strengthen the dollar, and sharply. Weak data can contribute to an equally active decline in the dollar. By the end of the trading day, the dollar and the EUR / USD pair are likely to return to the levels of today's opening.

Support and resistance levels
On the daily chart of the pair EUR / USD, a tapering triangle formed. The upper line of the triangle is currently near the level of 1.0795 and roughly corresponds to the 200-period moving average on the daily chart. The lower line of the tapering triangle corresponds to the lower border of the ascending channel on the daily chart, passing near the level of 1.0580. The tapering triangle is a trend continuation figure. And since the downtrend prevails, it is more likely to break the lower boundary of the triangle (level 1.0580), followed by a decrease in the EUR / USD pair.
However, until this moment, the pair EUR / USD can still be repeatedly adjusted and "go down" to the upper limit of the triangle and the level of 1.0795. And instead of the expected breakdown of the level of 1.0580, rebound and growth may follow. So far, the negative dynamics of the EUR / USD pair is prevailing, while it is below the short-term resistance levels 1.0638, 1.0668 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts).
In the case of consolidating a pair above the level of 1.0668, it is highly probable that it will continue to increase to resistance levels 1.0735 (EMA144), 1.0795 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
The probability of such a scenario is signaled by the indicators OsMA and Stochastics, which turned on long positions on the 4-hour and daily charts.
If the negative background is maintained against the dollar, then the probability of the EUR / USD pair strengthening scenario will increase.
And, conversely, as geopolitical tension decreases, investors' attention will again switch to positive macroeconomic indicators from the US. In this case, the dollar's growth will resume, and the pair EUR / USD will again be under pressure and will finally break through the support level of 1.0580.
In case of further reduction, the targets will be the levels of 1.0530, 1.0500, and 1.0350. Long positions can be considered when returning a pair above the level of 1.0668.

Support levels: 1.0580, 1.0530, 1.0500, 1.0485
Resistance levels: 1.0638, 1.0668, 1.0690, 1.0735, 1.0795

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.0595. Stop-Loss. Objectives 1.0580, 1.0530, 1.0500, 1.0485
Buy Stop 1.0645. Stop-Loss 1.0595. Objectives 1.0668, 1.0690, 1.0735, 1.0795


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Old Apr 17, 2017, 10:51am   #20
 
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TifiaFX started this thread AUD/USD: data on China supported the Australian dollar_17/04/2017

Current dynamics

According to data published this morning, China's industrial production in March rose by 7.6% yoy (the previous value of 6.3%), retail sales in China in March grew by 10.9% in annual terms (the previous value of + 9.5%), China's GDP in the 1st quarter grew by 6.9% in annual terms (the previous value + 6.8%). Strong data on China contributed to the strengthening of the Australian dollar. China is the largest trade and economic partner and buyer of primary commodities in Australia, primarily coal, iron ore, liquefied gas. Therefore, strong macroeconomic indicators from China have a positive impact on the quotes of the Australian currency.
At the same time, the US dollar continues to win back weak data on retail sales in the US for March, which was published on Friday in closed trading on European and American exchanges. Retail sales in the US in March declined for the second month in a row, with a two-month dynamics was the worst for more than 2 years. The basic consumer price index also fell, which occurred for the first time since January 2010.
The weakening of inflationary pressures, after Donald Trump's negative comments on a strong dollar, can significantly reduce the enthusiasm of investors who are betting on the growth of the dollar. The rate of inflation, along with data on GDP and the labor market in the US are key factors for the Fed in terms of further interest rate increases.
Slowing down the pace of inflation could force the Fed to reconsider its tough stance on US monetary policy plans.
Tomorrow at 01:30 (GMT) the protocol will be published from the last April meeting of the RBA on Monetary Policy. As you know, at the beginning of the month the RBA kept the current interest rate at the same level of 1.5%. The fall in commodity prices in recent years, a fairly high level of unemployment in the country (the last 10 years, unemployment is close to 6.0%), a weak increase in wages of employees, which does not contribute to the growth of consumer spending, as well as weak, according to the RBA, GDP growth - these are the main risks for the Australian economy.
Most likely, the RBA protocol will become aware of the intention to continue to maintain a soft monetary policy in Australia.
If the protocols contain harsh rhetoric about monetary policy in the country, then the Australian dollar can be strengthened in the currency market at once and fairly sharply.

Support and resistance levels
On the general weakening of the US dollar, the AUD / USD pair was able to grow and gain a foothold above the key levels of 0.7535 (EMA200), 0.7555 (EMA144 on the daily chart). At the moment, the pair AUD / USD is at a strong resistance level of 0.7590 (EMA50 on the day, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic draw a contradictory picture. If the indicators on the weekly chart are on the side of the sellers, then on the 4-hour and daily charts the indicators are turned to long positions.
The current level of 0.7590 is the key for guiding the further movement of the AUD / USD pair. In case of rebound from the level of 0.7590 and return below the short-term support level of 0.7550 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the further decline of the AUD / USD pair is likely.
The fall in the pair AUD / USD under the level of 0.7535 will return it to a downtrend.
An alternative scenario is associated with a further weakening of the US dollar and breakdown of the resistance level at 0.7590. If this scenario is implemented, the pair AUD / USD with targets 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7840 is likely to grow (Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the fall wave of the pair from July 2014 and EMA144 on the weekly chart).
The medium-term positive dynamics of the AUD / USD pair may remain as long as the pair is above the support level of 0.7535.
Support levels: 0.7555, 0.7535, 0.7460
Resistance levels: 0.7590, 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7840

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7575. Stop-Loss 0.7610. Take-Profit 0.7555, 0.7535, 0.7460, 0.7400
Buy Stop 0.7610. Stop-Loss 0.7575. Take-Profit 0.7635, 0.7650, 0.7680, 0.7740, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7840


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Old Apr 18, 2017, 1:48pm   #21
 
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TifiaFX started this thread Brent: prices are falling again_18/04/2017
Current dynamics

After the Easter weekend, oil prices are declining for the second consecutive day. Investors are trying to assess the strong oil demand in China, on the one hand, and the increase in oil production in the US, on the other hand. In China, there is a higher growth of the national economy in the 1st quarter. It is likely that the impetus for growth in the PRC will remain at least in the first half of this year. Against this background, oil imports to the PRC in March reached a record high.
After the US Energy Ministry reported that the production of shale oil in the seven oil-rich regions of the country could grow by another 2.5% per day in May, compared with the forecast, oil prices fell by about 1% on Monday. If this happens, the monthly increase will be the strongest in two years.
Many analysts of the oil market believe that in the next two years the production of shale oil in the US may exceed forecasts. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that oil production in the US by the end of this year will grow by 680,000 barrels per day compared to the end of 2016. Oil production outside OPEC this year could thus increase by 485,000 barrels per day.
The next meeting of the cartel, which may decide to extend the deal to reduce oil production, will be held on May 25. If hopes do not materialize, oil quotes may fall sharply.
Today at 20:30 (GMT), the American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish its report on changes in oil reserves in the US over the past week. And on Wednesday at 14:30 the Ministry of Energy of the United States publishes a weekly report on oil and petroleum products in the US storage. Reduction of reserves favorably affects oil prices, and vice versa. The growth of stocks puts pressure on oil prices.

Support and resistance levels
With the opening of the current week, the price of oil is declining. During the European session, the price reached a short-term support level of 55.20 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers.
If the decline continues, the price for Brent crude will reach support level 54.28 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the 4-hour chart).
With further decrease, the targets will be support levels of 53.00 (June and October highs), 52.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70. In the case of a confirmed breakdown of the support level of 50.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) and fixing below the level of 50.00, the upward trend in the price for Brent crude oil will be canceled.
However, from the current level of 55.20 it is also highly probable that there will be a retreat and a resumption of growth.
Updating the monthly highs near the 56.70 mark will indicate a further increase in the price of Brent crude oil.
Support levels: 55.20, 54.28, 54.00, 53.00, 52.00, 50.70
Levels of resistance: 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 54.85. Stop-Loss 55.60. Take-Profit 54.00, 53.00, 52.00, 50.70
Buy Stop 55.60. Stop-Loss 54.85. Take-Profit 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

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Old Apr 19, 2017, 10:30am   #22
 
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TifiaFX started this thread GBP/USD: Theresa May's decision has crumbled European stock markets _19/04/2017

Current dynamics

After yesterday, British Prime Minister Theresa May unexpectedly announced early parliamentary elections, the British stock market collapsed. Following the index FTSE100, which lost almost 2.9%, followed all the European major stock indexes. Sale on the stock markets of the UK and Europe caused a sharp strengthening of the pound and the euro. The pair GBP / USD rose yesterday almost by 350 points, to the level of 1.2900, however, to the close of yesterday's trading day fell to the level of 1.2840.
The pound grew throughout the currency market, Investors expect that early general elections in the UK will allow Prime Minister Theresa May to consolidate the dominant position of the Conservative Party in parliament on the eve of the June elections in order to agree with the EU on more favorable conditions for Brexit. If the Conservative Party has more seats in the parliament, this will neutralize the influence of supporters of the tough scenario Brexit. Then the pound can get even stronger. At its last meeting, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.25%. At the same time, inflation in February reached a maximum in more than three years amid a sharp weakening of the pound (more than 20%) after the referendum for Britain's exit from the EU. Recent positive macroeconomic data from the UK, as well as sharply increased inflation in the country, suggest that the Bank of England may return to the issue of raising the interest rate in the UK. And this is a positive factor for the pound.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication at 18:00 (GMT) of the Fed's economic review (Beige Book), which examines the current situation in the US economy. Optimistic views of economists, reflected in the review, will help strengthen the US dollar, and pessimistic - weaken the USD.

Support and resistance levels
Yesterday, after Theresa May announced her decision, the pound and GBP / USD pair rose sharply. The pair GBP / USD broke through an important resistance level of 1.2770 (EMA200 on the day market).
At the same time, the US dollar regains its position in the foreign exchange market. In the GBP / USD pair, correction may also begin. The immediate goal of the decline in this case will be the level of 1.2770.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts were deployed to short positions.
The reverse scenario will be associated with the further growth of the GBP / USD pair in case of consolidation above the current high near the 1.2860 mark.
Negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD prevails below the level of 1.2770. Only in the case of consolidation above the level of 1.2900 (yesterday's highs) can we consider the long positions for the pair GBP / USD.
Support levels: 1.2770, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2110
Resistance levels: 1.2905, 1.3000, 1.3350

Trading scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.2865. Take-Profit 1.2770, 1.2590, 1.2485
Buy Stop 1.2860. Stop-Loss 1.2820. Take-Profit 1.2905, 1.3000, 1.3100

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Old Apr 20, 2017, 11:43am   #23
 
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TifiaFX started this thread XAU/USD: The dollar is in no rush to take positions
20/04/2017
Current Dynamics

While the euro and the pound are growing again in the foreign exchange market, the dollar is in no rush to retreat against the yen and gold, which are asset-seekers. So, with the opening of today's trading day after the active decline in the day before, the pair XAU / USD is trading in a narrow range near the level of 1276.00 dollars per troy ounce. If the pound and the euro are moving at the moment in the foreign exchange market according to their scenario, the precious metals and, in particular, gold, after reaching the local annual highs at the beginning of this week, stopped rising.
If the elections in France are completed safely for the euro, i.e. If candidates from the extreme left and extreme right do not win, then the situation in the financial markets will calm down a little. The threat of a sovereign default of France and its withdrawal from the EU will be lifted.
Nevertheless, while the uncertainty with the elections in France exists, as well as the threat of sales of France's sovereign debt of about 1 trillion euros, gold will not be cheaper, despite the Fed's plans to tighten monetary policy and reduce its budget.
Boston Federal Reserve Bank manager Eric Rosengren said on Wednesday that the Fed should begin the process of reducing its asset portfolio "the sooner, the better." This will allow the Fed to raise short-term interest rates without harm to the economy, according to Rosengren. He also noted that the interest rate should be the "main mechanism" affecting the state of the US economy. Thus, the Fed continues to receive signals for a gradual tightening of monetary policy in the US.
Gold is cheaper in the situation of an increase in the interest rate in the US, t. It is difficult for him to compete with interest-bearing assets. The cost of its acquisition and storage with a tightening of monetary policy is growing.
The restraining factor from the decline in the price of gold is still geopolitical instability in the world and the position of US President Donald Trump, who repeatedly spoke in favor of a cheap dollar. In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, he said that the dollar "is becoming too strong" for US goods to compete successfully in the market.
Of the expected news for today, it is worth paying attention to data from the United States. At 12:30 (GMT), a weekly report from the US Department of Labor on the number of new applications for unemployment benefits is published. According to the forecast, the number of benefits is expected to increase to 242,000 (against 234,000 last week). If the data turn out to be worse, it will negatively affect the dollar, and vice versa, a low result will strengthen the dollar.
During the period from 15:30 to 17:30, several key figures of the world financial market, Bank of England Chairman Mark Carney and US Treasury Secretary Stephen Munchin are expected to perform. In this period of time, a surge in volatility is expected across the financial market, including XAU / USD.

Support and resistance levels
With the opening of today's trading day, the pair XAU / USD is trading near support level 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016 and EMA144 on the 1-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour and daily charts are deployed to short positions.
In case of breakdown of support levels 1277.00, 1274.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the decline in the pair XAU / USD will accelerate. The immediate targets will be support levels 1260.00 (February and March highs), 1253.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50.0%). Fixing of XAU/USD below the levels of 1235.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1220.00 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%) will cancel the uptrend.
Nevertheless, while the pair XAU / USD is above the support level of 1248.00, it keeps positive dynamics. The closest target in the case of continued growth of the pair XAU / USD will be the level of 1300.00. But for this, the pair XAU / USD needs to gain a foothold above the local maximum near the 1292.00 mark (April highs).
Support levels: 1277.00, 1274.00, 1260.00, 1253.00, 1248.00, 1235.00, 1220.00
Levels of resistance: 1287.00, 1292.00, 1300.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1273.00. Stop-Loss 1284.00. Take-Profit 1260.00, 1253.00, 1248.00, 1235.00, 1220.00
Buy Stop 1284.00. Stop-Loss 1273.00. Take-Profit 1290.00, 1300.00, 1305.00

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Old Apr 21, 2017, 11:04am   #24
 
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TifiaFX started this thread DJIA: Stephen Mnuchin cheered up investors
21/04/2017

Current Dynamics

US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said in his yesterday's speech that the tax reform plan will appear "very, very soon". This plan will be "decisive, substantial and will be the main priority for President Trump." After the presidential elections in the US against the backdrop of Donald Trump's pre-election promises to carry out tax reforms and stimulate fiscal policy, American stock markets and indices were actively growing, and government bonds were subject to large-scale sales. Now the US stock markets are seeing the opposite picture.
Investors are still being pressured by increased geopolitical tensions in the world after US missile strikes against Syria. The growing tensions between the US and North Korea also do not contribute to an increase in appetite for the purchase of risky assets. Investors once again prefer government bonds and other assets-seekers - gold and yen.
Also the general picture spoils some negative macro data coming from the USA. So, the data released yesterday by the US Department of Labor showed a reduction in the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits last week and an increase in the number of initial applications (244,000 versus 234,000 last week). The index of production activity, which is interrelated with the ISM index, fell to 22 points in April (against 32.8 in March).
Nevertheless, the main US stock indexes have grown today thanks to reports of companies exceeding the expectations of economists. Dow Jones Industrial Average rose on Thursday by 0.9% to 20582 points, S & P500 - by 0.8%, Nasdaq Composite - by 0.9%. The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds against their sales rose to 2.257% from 2.202% on Wednesday, which also helped strengthen the dollar. US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin cheered up investors, giving them hope that Trump's plan to stimulate the US economy would still be realized.
Today, the financial markets have a low activity of traders on the eve of the first round of the presidential elections in France, which will be held this Sunday. The risk that the results of the elections could violate the integrity of the EU, still hinders investors from actively operating in the financial markets. If Marin Le Pen wins, which promised to withdraw France from the European Union, then the euro and European stock markets could literally collapse. Following them, American stock markets can follow. The demand for gold and yen will grow sharply.
Of the news for today is worth highlighting data from the United States. At 13:45 (GMT), indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sector and service sector (PMI) from Markit for the US for April (preliminary value) are published. The index is an important indicator of the state of the US economy as a whole. At 13:30, the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Neil Kashkari begins, which is likely to follow the statements of other representatives of the Fed on the monetary policy in the US in general, and will favor an early increase in the rate in the US and a reduction in the Fed's budget. This will have a positive effect on the dollar, but is unlikely to support the US stock indexes.

Support and resistance levels
From the beginning of the previous month, the DJIA index, in general, is declining. With the absolute highs reached at the end of February near the 21170.0 mark, the DJIA index lost about 3.5%, having fallen to the current level of 20600.0. However, after yesterday's statements by US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, the DJIA index rose, broke through the short-term resistance level of 20555.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), however, it was suspended by resistance level 20620.0 (the upper limit of the descending channel and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour chart again unfolds to short positions.
If the DJIA index returns below the level of 20555.0, then its decline may continue to the nearest support level of 20360.0 (the lower limit of the descending channels on the 4-hour and daily charts).
If the downward trend is to increase, the decline in the index may extend to the support levels of 1990.0 (December highs), 19850.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after rebounding in February this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level of 0% is near the mark 21160.0). Further decline and breakdown 19600.0 level (EMA200 on the daily chart) will be critical for the bullish trend of the DJIA index.
To return to the purchases, the index must be fixed above the level 20750.0 (the upper limit of the range between the levels 20750.0 and 20360.0). While short-term downward correctional dynamics prevails.
Support levels: 20555.0, 20360.0, 19990.0, 19850.0, 19600.0
Resistance levels: 20620.0, 20750.0, 20886.0, 20980.0, 21170.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 20650.0. Stop-Loss 20540.0. Take-Profit 20750.0, 20886.0, 20980.0, 21170.0, 22000.0
Sell Stop 20540.0. Stop-Loss 20650.0. Take-Profit 20360.0, 19990.0, 19850.0, 19600.0

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Old Apr 24, 2017, 11:15am   #25
 
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TifiaFX started this thread EuroStoxx50: Centrist Emmanuel Macron leads the presidential race
24/04/2017
Current dynamics

According to the latest information, during the first round of the presidential elections in France, Emmanuel MacRon won 23.9% of the vote, the second among Marin Le Pen with 21.4%. It is likely that during the second round of elections, Macron can defeat Le Pen. Conservative Francois Fillon, who took third place, has already called on his supporters to vote for Macron.
Macro's economic policy is favorable for the Eurozone and European financial markets. In the implementation of its economic program, the former Minister of Economy centrist Macron plans to reduce taxes for companies and increase public investment by 50 billion euros. Macron also advocates the expansion of economic partnership within the Eurozone, primarily with Germany. The victory of Macron during the first round of elections can provoke the growth of demand for euro and European assets.
According to EPFR Global, the inflow of funds into the market of shares in the region is increasing, the funds have already begun moving to the European market. The macroeconomic statistics of the Eurozone is improving, the stocks have appreciably fallen in price since the beginning of the month, and all points to the probability of activization of buyers of European assets after the elections in France. So, according to the latest data, business activity in France is growing at the fastest pace in almost six years. IHS Markit's purchasing managers' index in March was 57.1 (the value above 50 indicates activity growth).
Nevertheless, one should be careful when opening long positions on the EuroStoxx50 index this week. On Thursday (11:45 GMT) the ECB's interest rate decision will be published in the Eurozone. The modest growth rates of the Eurozone economy remain, the unemployment rate still remains at high levels (about 9.5%), and annual inflation fell to 1.5% in March against 2% in February, again below the ECB's target level.
As several ECB leaders announced last week, it is not yet time to make changes in the monetary and credit policy of the bank. "The recovery of the economy is still unstable," despite signs of improving the economic situation in the Eurozone. The next meeting of the ECB will be held on April 26-27, and, according to the statements of key figures of the ECB leadership, the European Central Bank will not change the extra soft monetary policy.
And this will become a supporting factor for the European stock market. At the same time, the victory of Macron can give the European Central Bank an opportunity to consider the question of the beginning of the curtailment of the stimulation of the Eurozone economy. If during the next press conference the head of the ECB Mario Draghi only hints at the possibility of starting the curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone, the European stock indexes will react with a decrease.
If the ECB declares the continuation of the economic stimulus program, the rally on the European stock markets will continue, given the victory of Macron in the first round of elections and the increase in the probability of his victory in the second round of elections.

Support and resistance levels
The EuroStoxx50 index has been actively growing since the beginning of December and began to decline in April ahead of the presidential elections in France. Having opened with a gap up, the EuroStoxx50 index today broke through an important resistance level of 3515.0 (the Fibonacci level is 100% correction to the wave of decline since December 2015) and exceeded this level by 50 points. At the beginning of today's European session, the EuroStoxx50 index trades near the level of 3568.0 (the upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts turned to long positions. If the positive dynamics continue, the EuroStoxx50 index will continue to rise in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which runs near the level of 3680.0 (July highs of 2015).
An alternative scenario for the decline of the index will be linked both to the results of the second round of elections in France, if Marin Le Pen wins, or to the position of the ECB if the bank signals for the curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone.
The signal for opening of the medium-term short positions on the EuroStoxx50 index will be a breakdown of the support level 3400.0 (EMA50 and the lower limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
In this case, the reduction targets will be support levels 3325.0 (January highs), 3240.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Positive dynamics is maintained, while the EuroStoxx50 index is above the levels of 3240.0, 3200.0 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since December 2015).
Support levels: 3515.0, 3400.0, 3325.0, 3300.0, 3240.0, 3200.0
Resistance levels: 3578.0, 3600.0, 3680.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 3510.0 Stop-Loss 3560.0. Take-Profit 3470.0, 3400.0, 3325.0, 3300.0, 3240.0
Buy Stop 3585.0. Stop-Loss 3545.0. Take-Profit 3600.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

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Old Jul 11, 2017, 12:09pm   #26
 
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TifiaFX started this thread AUD/USD: in July - in negative territory
11/07/2017

Current dynamics

Despite the growth of the third trading session in a row, the pair AUD / USD has been trading on negative territory since the beginning of the month. As you know, last week the Reserve Bank of Australia left the interest rate unchanged at 1.50%, which has been at this level since August of last year. RBA Governor Philip Lowe held to neutral rhetoric, saying that the growth rate of wages remains low and "probably will be so for some time".
At the same time, the US dollar keeps the positions won earlier in the foreign exchange market. A number of positive macroeconomic data received from the US last week indicates a stable recovery of the economy and the labor market in the United States.
The number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector in June grew by 222,000 in the US (the forecast was +174,000 new jobs). The estimates for May and April are also revised upwards.
The index of supply managers (PMI) for the US service sector in June, according to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), was 57.4 compared to 56.9 in May. The service sector accounts for the largest part of US GDP, and the fact that in June the growth of business activity accelerated in this area, indicates a positive momentum for growth in the US economy.
This week, market participants will closely follow the statement (on Wednesday 10:00 (GMT) and on Thursday 14:00 (GMT)) of the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen. If, in her report to Congress, she confirms the Fed's intention to adhere to the planned tightening of monetary policy, the strengthening of the US dollar will continue.
Today, another representative of the Fed, Fed President San Francisco Williams, said that the pace of growth in wages and inflation in the US coincide with his predictions, and another increase in rates still fits into a "reasonable baseline scenario".
While the RBA says that "the strengthening of the Australian dollar will complicate the adjustment of the economy," and "the continuation of rates unchanged corresponds to the goals of GDP, inflation" in Australia, the Fed systematically tightens monetary policy in the US. The difference between the monetary policy of the Fed and the RBA will be an important fundamental factor that stimulates the sale of the AUD / USD pair.

Support and resistance levels
In general, the positive dynamics of the AUD / USD pair persists while it is trading above the key support level of 0.7530 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart).
At the moment, the pair AUD / USD is trading on the short-term balance line 0.7608 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and is trying to develop positive dynamics within the short-term upward channels on 1-hour and 4-hour charts.
Only in case of breakdown of short-term support levels of 0.7585 (EMA144 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart), 0.7570 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) can we speak of the predominance of the downside dynamics of the AUD / USD pair.
The fastening above the local resistance level 0.7635 will create prerequisites for the further growth of the AUD / USD pair.
In case of the development of the downward dynamics and breakdown of the key support level 0.7530 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), the bearish trend will again prevail in the dynamics of the AUD / USD pair. In this case, the targets will be the levels of 0.7460 (the Fibonacci level is 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline in the pair since July 2014, the minimum wave is near 0.6830), 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330 (November and May lows).
Support levels: 0.7608, 0.7585, 0.7570, 0.7530, 0.7500, 0.7460, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330
Resistance levels: 0.7635, 0.7710, 0.7780, 0.7840

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7590. Stop-Loss 0.7630. Take-Profit 0.7570, 0.7525, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330
Buy Stop 0.7630. Stop-Loss 0.7590. Take-Profit 0.7640, 0.7710, 0.7780, 0.7840


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Old Jul 12, 2017, 12:03pm   #27
 
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TifiaFX started this thread GBP/USD: pound received support
12/07/2017
Current dynamics

After the National Bureau of Statistics of Great Britain presented today very encouraging data from the UK labor market, the pound strengthened in the foreign exchange market. According to the data provided, for the period March-May unemployment fell to 4.5%, the lowest level since 1975, while the number of unemployed fell by 64,000, and the number of workers reached a record high. The average salary (excluding premiums) in March-May increased by 2% (with the forecast for growth of 1.8%). However, real wages in the UK remain, nevertheless, at a low level, as consumer prices grew faster than wages. In May, inflation was 2.9%, demonstrating the fastest growth rates in almost four years. The decline in the British pound on the outcome of the referendum on Brexit provoked an increase in import prices and spurred inflation.
At a meeting of the Bank of England in June, three of the eight members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted to tighten monetary policy. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney also signaled the likelihood of policy tightening in the future. However, for this, according to Karni, requires a strong growth of companies' investments, which can neutralize the slowdown in the pace of consumer spending.
But there is another opinion on the tightening of monetary policy in the UK. So, today the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England Ben Broadbent said that, given the uncertainty of the economic outlook, "at the moment it is not worth making a decision (regarding raising rates)", and "there are many factors that can not be accurately assessed".
This week, market participants will closely follow the speech (Wednesday and Thursday 14:00 (GMT)) of the Fed Chairman Janet Yellen. It is likely that in her report before the US Congress she will confirm the Fed's intention to tighten monetary and credit policy. In this case, the strengthening of the US dollar will resume.
Also today, from 14:00 (GMT), volatility in the foreign exchange market could rise sharply due to the publication of the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, which must be taken into account when making trading decisions.
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Support and resistance levels
After the publication of data on the UK labor market, the pair GBP / USD rebounded from the key support level 1.2810 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and is currently trading above support level 1.2850 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). However, the positive momentum may not be enough to restore the positive dynamics of the pair GBP / USD.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily chart turned to short positions, signaling the continuation of the downward dynamics.
The support levels of 1.2850, 1.2810 are good deterrent levels from the further decline of the GBP / USD pair. In case of breakdown of the support level 1.2745 (EMA144 on the daily chart), the GBP / USD decline will accelerate to targets near the levels of 1.2590 (June lows and the lower limit of the uplink on the weekly chart), 1.2365, 1.2110.
If the positive dynamics of the pound returns, then the GBP / USD pair will resume growth with targets of 1.2980, 1.3050 (May highs), 1.3100, 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the pair GBP / USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 Near the level of 1.7200 and the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 1.2850, 1.2810, 1.2745, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2550, 1.2365, 1.2110
Resistance levels: 1.2910, 1.2980, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2830. Stop-Loss 1.2870. Take-Profit 1.2810, 1.2745, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.2870. Stop-Loss 1.2830. Take-Profit 1.2910, 1.2980, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300

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Old Jul 13, 2017, 11:27am   #28
 
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TifiaFX started this thread AUD/USD: near 4-month highs
13/07/2017

Current dynamics

Today, the pair AUD / USD again approached the annual highs of 4-month old near the 0.7745 mark. The Australian currency is growing, receiving double support from strong data on China's foreign trade balance and after the publication of the consumer price inflation indicator in Australia. According to data presented today (04:00 GMT + 3) by the Melbourne Institute, expectations for consumer price inflation rose 4.4% in July (the previous value + 3.6%). The high value of the indicator is positive for AUD.
A little later (05:00 GMT + 3) came out strong indicators on China's trade balance. According to the data provided, exports in June increased (for the fourth consecutive month) by 11.3% compared to the same period of the previous year after an increase of 8.7% in May.
The annual import growth in June was 17.2% after the growth of 14.8% in May (the forecast was + 12.4% compared to the same period of the previous year).
China's foreign trade surplus rose to $ 42.77 billion in June from $ 40.81 billion in May, with a forecast of $ 44.2 billion; By about 5%.
China is the largest trade and economic partner and buyer of primary commodities in Australia. Iron ore and coking coal account for about 30% and 12% of Australia's commodity exports, respectively. And most of the Australian raw materials exports are directed to China. Therefore, strong macroeconomic indicators from China have a positive impact on the quotes of the Australian currency.
At the same time, the AUD / USD pair is growing on the weakening of the US dollar after yesterday, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen in his report in the US Congress confirmed plans for a "gradual" increase in interest rates. However, in her opinion, it is necessary to adhere to the gradual way of raising interest rates in the next few years.
Today, Janet Yellen speaks to the US Senate Banking Committee. Investors are mostly skeptical about further tightening of monetary policy in the US against the backdrop of a slowdown in inflation. It is likely that today Janet Yellen will not say anything new. Market participants are ready for the December rate increase in the US, but will closely follow the performance of Yellen. Any hints from Yellen about the possibility of raising the rate in September will cause a sharp increase in the US dollar. Janet Yellen's speech will begin at 17:00 (GMT + 3).

Support and resistance levels
At the beginning of today's European session, the pair AUD / USD is trading at the upper border of the rising channel on the daily chart, closely approaching the annual highs near the 0.7745 mark.
The positive dynamics of the AUD / USD pair is maintained above the key support level of 0.7530 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart). The targets for the AUD / USD pair in case of its further growth will be the levels of 0.7780 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7840 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline from July 2014, the minimum wave is near 0.6830), 0.8000 (EMA200 On a weekly chart).
Only in case of breakdown of short-term support levels of 0.7585 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart), 0.7635 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) can we speak about the return of the downward dynamics of the AUD / USD pair.
In the case of the development of the downward dynamics and breakdown of the key support level 0.7535 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), the bearish trend will again prevail in the dynamics of the AUD / USD pair. In this case, the targets will be the levels of 0.7460 (the Fibonacci level is 23.6% of the correction to the wave of the pair's decline since July 2014, the minimum wave is near 0.6830), 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330 (November and May lows).
Support levels: 0.7710, 0.7635, 0.7585, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7460, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330
Levels of resistance: 0.7750, 0.7780, 0.7840, 0.8000

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7690. Stop-Loss 0.7750. Take-Profit 0.7635, 0.7600, 0.7585, 0.7535, 0.7460, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330
Buy Stop 0.7750. Stop-Loss 0.7690. Take-Profit 0.7780, 0.7840, 0.7900, 0.8000

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Old Jul 14, 2017, 11:59am   #29
 
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TifiaFX started this thread S&P500: pending key inflation data
14/07/2017

Current dynamics

Today, the main US stock indexes are traded in a narrow range in anticipation of the publication of key US inflation indicators. Investors will also closely monitor the reporting of the largest US banks. Today begins the reporting period for US banks, including Citigroup Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and PNC Financial Services Inc.
Shares of American banks in the last three weeks gained almost 6% in the hope that a gradual increase in interest rates will lead to an increase in their income from lending. The Fed has planned another rate hike this year, but some investors are still skeptical about further tightening of monetary policy. Fed executives are calling for waiting for more robust signals about inflation in the US to continue raising interest rates in the US.
This opinion was yesterday held by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Neil Kashkari, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Lael Brainard.
In general, so far the positive dynamics of the indices against the backdrop of the growth of corporate profits remains. However, the rhetoric of the world's central banks has changed toward a more stringent monetary policy. It seems that, amid the strengthening of the world economy, stimulating programs in countries with the largest economies may soon be curtailed. And this is a negative factor for the stock markets.
At (12:30 GMT) the US consumer price index and retail sales report are published. Investors will pay close attention to the data to understand whether the recent weakening of inflation is temporary. The reaction of the dollar and the US stock market to inflation data is acute, given that these data, along with data on the labor market and GDP, play a key role in the decision making by the Fed at the interest rate.
It is expected that in June, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.1% (after a decrease of 0.1% in May) and by 1.7% in annual terms. Such an increase in inflation will not satisfy the Fed and will help to weaken the US dollar, but will also support American stock markets. But if the consumer price index comes out in June with better indicators than the forecast, the dollar will strengthen in the foreign exchange market, while stock indices, including the S & P500 index, will decrease.

Support and resistance levels
With the opening of today's trading day, the S & P500 index slightly decreased, trading in a narrow range near the mark of 2445.0.
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily chart are on the buyers side, however, on the 4-hour, 1-hour chart, the indicators turned to short positions, signaling an overdue correction after many days of growth.
In the event of a downward correction, the S & P500 may fall to the support levels 2433.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 2426.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart).
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the weekly chart also turned to short positions.
If the negative trend increases, then the deeper decline of the index to support levels of 2405.0 (June and July lows), 2390.0, 2355.0, near which the bottom line of the rising channel passes on the weekly chart, is possible.
While the price is above 2325.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 2305.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to growth since February 2016), the positive dynamics of the index remains. In the event of a breakdown of the resistance level 2452.0 (June and year highs), the growth of the index will resume.
Support levels: 2433.0, 2426.0, 2405.0, 2390.0, 2355.0, 2325.0, 2305.0
Resistance level: 2452.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2420.0. Stop-Loss 2432.0. Objectives 2415.0, 2405.0, 2390.0, 2355.0, 2320.0, 2305.0
Buy Stop 2432.0. Stop-Loss 2420.0. Objectives 2438.0, 2452.0, 2500.00
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Old Jul 17, 2017, 12:46pm   #30
 
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TifiaFX started this thread DJIA: the indices rose after the publication of inflation data
17/07/2017

Current dynamics

After Friday's weak data on retail sales and inflation in the US were published, the main US stock indexes rose. As the US Department of Labor reported on Friday, the consumer price index (CPI) remained unchanged in June compared to the previous month (0.0% in June, + 1.6% in annual terms, vs forecast +0.1% and +1.7%, respectively). Retail sales in June, according to the data presented, fell by 0.2% compared to May (sales were expected to increase by 0.1%). These data are key for the Fed in the matter of making an interest rate decision.
Investors bought shares and bonds on Friday, as weak data on retail sales and inflation suggest that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates and reduce assets in the coming months. Against the background of purchases of 10-year US Treasury bonds, their profitability declined from 2.319% to 2.298% after the publication of macro data.
The S & P500 index rose 0.5% on Friday to 2459.00 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average index increased by 0.4% to 21637.00 points. Last week was the most successful for both indices from the end of May. So, S&P500 for the week gained 1.4%, and DJIA grew by 1%.
On Friday, the reporting season for US banks began, the results were published by Citigroup Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and PNC Financial Services Inc. Hopes for high financial results of companies for the 2-nd quarter also support the US stock indexes.
Shares of US banks over the past three weeks have risen in price. Also last week, shares of technology companies in the United States grew. The subindex of the technology sector of the S & P500 grew by 3.8%, showing the best weekly result in 2017.
Now, after the publication of the data, the probability of an increase in the rate in December, according to the CME Group, fell below the level of 50%. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan on Thursday made it clear that he would like to wait for the acceleration of inflation before raising interest rates again. It is likely that the Fed in the future may be more prudent approach to raising rates. If the Fed again adheres to mild rhetoric regarding monetary policy, it will stimulate the US stock market to further growth.

Support and resistance levels
DJIA updated its annual highs on Friday and reached a new absolute maximum near the mark of 21680.0. The DJIA index continues to grow steadily, starting from February 2016 and trading in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts.
So far, the index is trading above the key support level of 20300.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart, as well as the Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the growth in the wave from the level of 15660.0 after rebounding in February this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level 0% is near the mark of 21536.0), its medium-term positive dynamics is preserved. The long positions in the DJIA index trade are relevant.
Against the background of low inflation in the US and the Fed's predilection, in connection with this, to a cautious approach in the matter of further interest rate hikes, the further growth of the DJIA index is likely.
Only in case of breakdown of the support level of 21360.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) can we again return to consideration of short positions on the DJIA index. And only in case of breakdown of the support level of 19380.0 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%) can we speak about the breakdown of the bullish trend.
Support levels: 21510.0, 21360.0, 21100.0, 20600.0, 20300.0
Resistance levels: 21680.0, 22000.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 21690.0. Stop-Loss 21500.0. Take-Profit 21700.0, 21800.0, 22000.0
Sell Stop 21500.0. Stop-Loss 21690.0. Take-Profit 21360.0, 21100.0, 21000.0, 20600.0

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