Re: SuperForex - Company News and Analysis

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Old Aug 23, 2017, 2:55pm   #25
Joined Jul 2017
NZD/JPY: Short Review and Forecast

The downward trend was formed a month ago and continues amid positive economic news from Japan. The NZD is under the pressure of decreased prices for food and raw materials.

The rates of the NZD/JPY since the beginning of the month are in the frames of the downward trend formed just a month ago. Despite the recent positive data about economy of New Zealand, where we can see a Federal budget surplus by 1.5 billion NZD, the New Zealand currency fell against major currencies. At the same time, it should be noted that the NZD did not have enough incentives for growth amid the absence of news about the economy. In addition, the NZD was under the pressure of the decreased prices for raw materials and food, which reached annual minimums this week. The price for wheat fell from $560 down to $403. At the same time the JPY had many stimuli to strengthen.

The PMI index of business activity in August was 52.8 against the expected level of 52.3. The volume of imports and exports grew less than the expected - 16.3% versus 13.4%, respectively, and in the long term increased the pressure on the trade balance. However, in July the trade surplus in Japan narrowed by 17%, though it's 418 billion yen, exceeding the expectations of investors. A week earlier the yen strengthened due to the unexpected GDP growth by 1% and an increase in consumer spending which was almost twice higher than the market expectation. Therefore, the Japanese economy now looks better for investors.

Tomorrow the NZD may get a chance to strengthen, if new data about the trade balance of New Zealand pleases investors. At the moment, oscillators (MACD, Stochastics, RSI) unanimously point to the rates in the oversold zone. The deals to BUY would be the most effective in this situation. There's a possibility to make a profit on the expected price correction.

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Old Aug 29, 2017, 4:50pm   #26
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EUR/JPY Technical Outlook & Daily Chart

The EUR/JPY is at a crossroads after the channel breaking.

This month the euro has moved against the Japanese Yen within around 370 pips. Although the prices broke the price channel down, the pair didn’t decline a lot this month and it returned back to trade now at 130.75 around this month’s opening price. In our last report we recommended to buy the pair around 130.73 and the pair is back now to the same levels - it didn’t hit our target, so we can close our previous order now and think about another opportunity.

The EUR/JPY pair broke the channel down and retested it, and the sell signal is still valid. Although it rose to test the key resistance level 131.38, we can keep our negative vision for the pair; that is in case it is still trade below the resistance level. We can wait for the Stochastic indicator at 96 level to cross over to sell the pair.

The Next Few Days

Based on this simple analysis of the pair after breaking the channel we would wait for a sell opportunity. Once the prices break the moving average down we would sell the pair, perhaps around 129.40. We would keep our first target at 126.24 and the second one at 122.35, that is in case the pair is still trading below the resistance level 131.38.

This week the market does not offer much in terms of hot economic news from the European Union or Japan but we have to be careful about the American employment change and the jobs report on Friday.

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Old Sep 4, 2017, 4:59pm   #27
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The Dollar Moving Down

Amid the latest economic reports, the American currency is losing positions against all major currencies.

The dollar fell sharply against all major currencies after the labor market data release in the US, which was worse than expected. As reported by the US Department of Labor, last month 156,000 jobs were created, which is below the projected 180,000. The indicator for July was revised downwards from 209,000 to 189,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, instead of the previously forecasted 4.3%. All of this indicates a worsening of the situation on the labor market. The report also shows the average hourly rate grew by 0.1% in August, compared to the expected growth of 0.2%. One of the main indicators of inflation, the Core PCE, has decreased to 1.4%, while at the beginning of the year it was above 1.8%. Such statistics practically leaves no chance for another increase in the discount rate this year.

Federal Reserve representatives have expressed their concerns about the low dynamics of consumer prices over the recent months and its impact on the future monetary policy of the US Central Bank. Soon after the US statistics release, information from the ECB suddenly appeared. Sources in the European Central Bank, quoted by Bloomberg, declared that the plan for ending the quantitative easing program could be ready no earlier than December. "The politicians of the European Central Bank may not be ready to curtail the quantitative easing program until December," the sources said.

After the release of US statistics, the EUR/USD rose 0.5% to 1.1970, approaching a two-and-a-half-year high on Tuesday (1.2069), but after a verbal intervention by the ECB, it returned to 1.1900. Earlier the euro surrendered its position after reports about the increasing number of ECB officials who are concerned about the recent strengthening of the European currency.

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Old Sep 5, 2017, 4:20pm   #28
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis & Daily Chart

With the recent development we see a potential for further growth in the USD/CHF rate.

Today we direct our attention to the USD/CHF currency pair.

The USD/CHF managed to rise above its support level at 0.9558 yesterday and mark new highs near 0.9670. We expect that this movement above the support would persist for a while. The price is approaching the nearby resistance level of 0.9693. If it manages to overcome that, we can see it grow further to the second resistance at 0.9725. As long as the pair moves above the support level at 0.9558, we hope to see a continuation of the bullish movement from yesterday.

In terms of trading this pair well today, we should expect it to move within about 90 pips, based on the USD/CHF’s previous behavior on the market. Any buy positions should be placed above the pivot of 0.9558, with a first target at the resistance at 0.9693, and a second target at the next resistance level at 0.9725, which is likely the best candidate for a T/P order, as it is unlikely that the pair will be able to overcome it and would likely drop after testing it. However, this strategy is only suitable if the pair remains above 0.9558; if it drops below, we should close these positions.

As of the moment of this article’s publication, the USD/CHF is trading around 0.9595 and technical indicators agree on a strong buy recommendation.


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Old Sep 6, 2017, 4:51pm   #29
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USD/SEK: Review & Forecast

The SEK achieved its level from November 2014 thanks to the weakened USD.

The steady downward trend continues, but at the moment the rates have consolidated in the range SEK 7.908 - 8.0. The market hasn't received any economic statistics or news from Sweden which would have affected the Swedish Krona, but the stable economic situation in the Eurozone isn't putting pressure on its value.


Since the end of August the rates have been influenced by the unstable political situation in the United States, the escalation of the conflict between the US and North Korea, and disappointing economic statistics in the United States. As a result, the value of the SEK has reached the level from November 2014, and the downward trend became more rapid. Falling to the minimum for many years began on August 25 when the FED Chairman Janet Yellen did not make any statements related with the country's monetary policy during the symposium in Jackson Hole, which confirmed investors' doubts of a further increase of the interest rate. Then the geopolitical factors, unemployment growth by 4.4%, a reduced volume of manufacturing production in July in 3.3% contrinuted to negatively affecting the USD value.

At the same time it is likely that the minimum has already been achieved and the current phase of consolidation can be the beginning of a flat trend. However, today the dollar can get some support from the release of new economic statistics: the market is waiting for the data on trade balance, and the PMI indices of business activity. Next week we also expect data about retail sales and consumer price indices.

At the moment volatility is very low. The MACD and RSI oscillators do not give us any signals for trading positions. In this situation it's necessary to pay attention to the entry points SEK 7,908 and 8.0, the achievement of which would indicate the completion of the consolidation phase. Now, the most effective course would be the deals to Buy in medium-term trading.

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Old Sep 7, 2017, 4:39pm   #30
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NZD/USD: Short Review & Analysis

We expect the pair to move in a slightly bearish way today.

Today we would look at the NZD/USD currency pair.

For some time now the pair has been moving in a bearish manner below 0.7217, down from 0.7247 previously. The level of 0.7217 actually proves to be an insurmountable resistance level for the NZD/USD at this moment that the pair is simply incapable of overcoming. The NZD/USD seems to be inching closer to the nearby support at 0.7174, so we need to stay alert and be patient until the sideways price channel is fully formed.

Quite on the contrary, Wednesday saw the pair attempting to make new gains, trading above the first resistance and climbing towards the second one at 0.7290. After it failed to overcome it, it retreated to the type of movement we see today. It is not very likely that we would see the pair climb to the second resistance, since the first one is proving to be quite challenging. Therefore, we can wait and see if the NZD/USD will actually drop further down and provide us with a good opportunity to trade on a more pronounced bearish trend.

In the current scenario it would be best if we took sell positions below the resistance at 0.7247, placing our first target at the nearby support level at 0.7174. If the NZD/USD drops further down, our second target would be 0.7144.

Currently the pair is trading around 0.7198, above the support levels. All technical indicators are unanimously giving us a strong sell signal.

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Old Sep 8, 2017, 4:18pm   #31
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The North Korean Crisis

Tensions continue to rise as North Korea's Independence Day looms around the corner.

One could hardly go through this week without hearing about what is shaping up to be the biggest global issue right now: North Korea. The isolated communist state came under the spotlight three weeks ago when North Korea leader Kim Jong Un announced his intention to launch an attack on Guam, a territory under the jurisdiction of the United States. What ensued was a series of threats between Trump and Kim Jong Un, which led to a tense situation on the global financial markets. The stress began to ease off last week, but on Sunday the world awoke in chaos again, as North Korea performed a successful test of a hydrogen bomb in the ocean, which resulted in an earthquake felt in neighboring South Korea and Japan.

Even though there were no casualties, this strike was quite significant. For one thing, many countries had speculated that North Korea did not have the technology to successfully mount such a destructive bomb on a missile, nor to aim it properly. Since the country lives under a self-imposed isolation from the rest of the world, their development has been hampered by a lack of exchange of technologies. It has also been very difficult for the rest of the world to evaluate the readiness and conditions for war in North Korea due to the lack of information (or, rather, the state propaganda that is broadcast instead of information, which many suspect is inaccurate). However, this strike proved that North Korea is much farther ahead in its nuclear program than previously assumed – a power on which Kim Jong Un’s regime relies. The North Korean leader has repeatedly ignored the condemnation of the United Nations regarding his nuclear weapons – and from his perspective, as someone who faces many enemies and might have to protect his position with force, it makes sense that he wants to hold on to his weapons.

It is also important to add that while hydrogen bombs are not talked about as often as atomic ones, they are in fact more dangerous. The test that North Korea performed had five-six times the magnitude of what the USA used in the devastating World War II attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan. If North Korea does have the means to send these missiles across the globe to attack North America, the destruction will be unprecedented.

To try to mitigate the crisis before the irreversible occurs, the United Nations again spoke about sanctions against North Korea. The United States, arguably the loudest voice in the argument, has suggested a ban on exporting oil to North Korea. Without fuel, the country would definitely be forced to reconsider its policies, but it might also cause a serious economic crisis in the country where the living standard is already reportedly poor enough.

Even if an oil embargo could success in theory, we might not see it in practice. North Korea trades with two countries: Russia and China, both of which are members of the UN Security Council and could veto the embargo. Even though both have spoken against North Korea’s recent actions, it is unlikely that they would support anything too harsh. China, in particular, does not wish to lose its position of importance in North Korea. Russia too is protecting its interests by supporting the claim that an oil embargo will endanger the civilian population more than it would neutralize the military program of North Korea. The United Nations Security Council is yet to vote on any measures against North Korea.

Meanwhile, amid the geopolitical tensions we saw the financial markets in disarray. Stocks moved up and down, as did currencies. The dollar lost some of its positions against major currencies, and the EUR/USD was able to pass the psychological threshold at $1.20. We should note, however, that the American dollar also suffered for other reasons – the destruction caused by hurricane Harvey hasn’t been fully documented yet, and the US southern coast is again in danger of another hurricane, Irma.

The big winner this week has without a doubt been the gold, which reached its highest level in a year. As a safe haven asset, gold is attractive to traders who find other instrument too insecure at the moment. Now the markets are holding their breath as tomorrow North Korea celebrates its independence and there might be another attack to “commemorate” the day. As long as the tensions continue, we are likely to see this trend stick around.

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Old Sep 11, 2017, 4:48pm   #32
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GBP/NZD: Technical Outlook before UK Bank Rate

The GBP/NZD is ahead of 1.8360 after breaking through the resistance area.

If you want to be successful in Forex trading, you have to follow your rules and your trusted analysis, especially if you use classical methods of analysis. In our last report about the GBP/NZD pair we recommended buying the pair for several reasons: lthe pair had reached further than 61.8% Fibonacci and was trading above the ascending trend line, and there also was a double bottom pattern, all of which are signs which told us to buy the pair. This is why we bought it at 1.7700 - we have taken our profit at 1.7850. Then we bought the pair again after breaking the neckline at 1.7885 and the prices hit our target today at 1.8230.

The pair is now trading around 38.2% Fibonacci in a series of impulse waves, after it reached 1.7500 - close to the upside trend line. The pair has a resistance area at 1.8362 which the pair is expected to reach in the next few days. That is in case the pair is still trading above the support area at 1.7906 and the moving average 50. The Stochastic indicator started giving us a sell signal, which is a sign that the pair will make a downward correction movement.

The Next Few Days

From this classical analysis of the pair we can’t take any positions now at the current level. We can buy the GBP/NZD at the support level 1.7906 or sell at the resistance level 1.8362, but we prefer the buying scenario for the next trading days. In effect, we can take a buy position now with a small volume and keep our target at 1.8362.

This week the market has some hot news from the UK like the CPI and the official bank rate next Thursday.

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