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Old Jul 3, 2018, 2:24pm   #601
 
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LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

On Tuesday, oil prices grew and reached 73.35, but the market is influenced by ambiguous factors.
The risks of Libya oil supply interruptions support the instrument. Yesterday, the representatives of the Libyan National Oil Corp announced that the shipment from a number of ports is unavailable, so the reduction of production in the country by 850,000 barrels per day is expected. On the other hand, the price is under pressure of the United Arab Emirates government's statement that the country has the opportunity to significantly increase production to prevent a supply shortage in the market. Previously, Saudi Arabia said the same thing. Thus, the expected by the end of the year, Iran "black gold" export decrease will be balanced by other OPEC members’ production growth.
In the evening, investors are waiting for API Crude Oil Stocks change release. If the index falls, it will affect the price negatively.

Support and resistance

The key "bullish" level is 73.43 (Murrey [7/8]). After the breakout, the price can grow to 75.00 (Murrey [8/8]). Otherwise, a downward correction to 71.87 (the lower line of Bollinger bands, Murrey [6/8]) and 70.31 (Murrey [5/8]) is expected.
Technical indicators do not exclude the fall possibility. Bollinger bands are directed upwards. Stochastic entered the overbought zone and can reverse. MACD decreases in the positive zone.
Resistance levels: 73.43, 75.00.
Support levels: 71.87, 70.31.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level 72.80 with the targets at 71.87, 70.31 and stop loss 73.40.
Long positions can be opened when the price is set above the level of 73.43 with the target at 75.00 and stop loss around 72.80.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.

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Old Jul 4, 2018, 11:04am   #602
 
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LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

This week, the pair is corrected downwards due to weak economic statistics from Japan.
Tankan Large Manufacturing Index in Q2 2018 dropped from 24 to 21 points and Manufacturing PMI in June dropped from 53.1 to 53.0 points.
Also, JPY is under pressure of the decision of the People's Bank of China not to use the yuan as a weapon in the trade war with the US. This was announced by the head of the Chinese regulator Yi Gang. In general, the potential to strengthen JPY as a safe haven asset remains, especially if the US-China trade conflict continues to worsen.
In addition, on Wednesday, the Japanese Bank of Japan board member Yutaka Harada addressed the leaders of Japanese business. The official noted that the current level of unemployment in the country (2.2%) is too high and to achieve inflation level of 2.0% it is necessary to further reduce it. Therefore, the Bank of Japan intends to continue soft monetary policy.

Support and resistance

The price has fallen to the midline of Bollinger Bands to 110.15. The breakdown of this level will give the prospect of further decline to 109.37 (Murrey [4/8], the bottom line of Bollinger Bands) and 108.59 (Murrey [5/8]). This possibility is indicated by Stochastic which has left the overbought area. The key to the "bulls" is 110.93 (Murrey [6/8]), which was tested unsuccessfully in May. Consolidation of the price above it will cause an increase to 111.72 (Murrey [7/8]) and 112.50 (Murrey [8/8]).
Support levels: 110.15, 109.37, 108.59.
Resistance levels: 110.93, 111.72, 112.50.

Trading tips

Buy positions can be opened above 110.93 with targets at 111.72, 112.50 and stop-loss at 110.50.
Sell positions may be opened below 110.15 with targets at 109.37, 108.59 and stop-loss at 110.40.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.

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Old Jul 5, 2018, 1:11pm   #603
 
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LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

GBP continues strengthening due to positive economic statistics and is testing the level of 1.3244 (Murrey [5/8]).
Wednesday's data on the Services PMI in the UK proved to be strong and strengthened GBP. In June, the indicator reached the 8-month maximum at 55.1 points. According to experts, this could lead to GDP growth by 0.4% in the UK in Q2 2018 and push the Bank of England to increase the interest rate at an August meeting. However, for such a decision, inflation in the country should be above the target level of 2.0%. Currently, this indicator continues to decline and has already reached the level of 2.4%.
The situation with Brexit remains controversial. Theresa May's Cabinet developed a new plan for customs cooperation with the EU. According to it, after leaving the EU, Britain will be able to set its own tariffs on imported goods while transit products going to the EU through the UK territory will have to be taxed by the EU duties.

Support and resistance

The price is testing the level of 1.3244 (Murrey [5/8]), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of growth to 1.3305 (Murrey [6/8]), 1.3366 (Murrey [7/8]). The key level for the "bears" seems to be 1.3183 (Murrey [2/8]), midline of Bollinger Bands). If it is broken down, the price may decline to 1.3122 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.3061 (Murrey [2/8]). Technical indicators don’t provide a clear signal. Stochastic has reversed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone.
Support levels: 1.3366, 1.3305.
Resistance levels: 1.3061, 1.3122, 1.3183.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened from 1.3260 with targets at 1.3305, 1.3366 and stop-loss at 1.3220. Sell positions may be opened from 1.3183 with targets at 1.3122, 1.3061 and stop-loss at 1.3220.
Implementation time: 3-5 days.

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Old Jul 6, 2018, 10:07am   #604
 
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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Today, US trade duties on goods produced in China came into effect, totaling USD 34 billion. According to experts, the impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy will be noticeable in 3-6 months and may lead to a 0.2% decrease in its growth. Now investors are waiting for the official reaction of the Chinese authorities, in particular, the press conference of the Premier of the State Council of the PRC, Li Keqiang. Beijing's response may be symmetric, but the US administration warned that if the conflict escalated, it could introduce additional duties on Chinese goods totaling USD 500 billion.
In the evening, investors expect the publication of data on Nonfarm payrolls in the US. The indicator can decline from 223K to 195K. Thursday's statistics on ADP Employment Change also proved to be weak: in June the indicator dropped from 189K to 177K.
Support and resistance


The price is testing 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) and in case of consolidation above it the price can reach the levels of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [2/8]). A breakdown of the midline of Bollinger Bands at 1.1650 will give the prospect of a decline to the level of 1.1530 (the bottom line of Bollinger Bands). Indicators show growth. Stochastic is directed upwards, and MACD histogram is about to move to the positive zone.
Support levels: 1.1650, 1.1530.
Resistance levels: 1.1718, 1.1840, 1.1962.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above the level of 1.1718 with target at 1.1840 and stop-loss at 1.1670.
Sell positions may be opened above the level of 1.1650 with target at 1.1530 and stop-loss at 1.1690.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.

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Old Jul 9, 2018, 1:39pm   #605
 
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LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

Today, the pair is trading near the midline of Bollinger Bands (D1) at 110.50.
Today, at the meeting of the heads of the Bank of Japan regional branches, Haruhiko Kuroda spoke. In general, the head of the Japanese regulator confirmed his opinion that a soft monetary policy should be continued until inflation stabilizes at 2.0%.
This week, investors will focus on the development of the US-China trade conflict and the publication of June inflation data in the US. The trade war leads to instability in the world economy and can force the Fed to lower the hike of interest rate increase. The index of inflation promises to remain above the target level of 2.0% for the fourth consecutive month, which indicates the restoration of the American economy and the need to normalize monetary policy.

Support and resistance

Now the price is at the middle line of the Bollinger bands at 110.50. The key for the "bears" is 110.15 (Murrey [5/8]). If it is broken down, a further decrease to 109.37 (Murrey [4/8]) and 108.59 (Murrey [3/8]) is likely. Long positions will become relevant if the price consolidates above the level of 110.93 (Murrey [6/8]), which was tested unsuccessfully this year. In this case, the target of the "bulls" will be 111.72 (Murrey [7/8]) and 112.50 (Murrey [8/8]).
Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal. MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone. Stochastic is directed downwards.
Support levels: 110.15, 109.37, 108.59.
Resistance levels: 110.93, 111.72, 112.50.

Trading tips

Buy positions can be opened above 110.93 with target at 111.72, 112.50 and stop-loss at 110.50.
Sell positions may be opened from 110.15 with targets at 109.37, 108.59 and stop-loss at 110.60.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.

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Old Jul 10, 2018, 12:56pm   #606
 
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Joined Apr 2009
LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the pair moved in different directions: poor June US employment market data affected it negatively, but as the tough rhetoric did not develop after the US-China trade taxes implementation, USD did not fall further.
On Monday, ECB officials commented on the current economic situation. The head of the regulator, Mario Draghi in the European Parliament noted the growing role of protectionism in the world trade and expressed hope for EU consumer prices growth. In Zurich, ECB board member Ewald Nowotny expressed his fear that the US-China trade war could turn into a currency one. Earlier, the head of the People's Bank of China Yi Gang claimed the intention not to use the Yuan as a weapon in trade disputes, but the market was not satisfied.
Today, the traders focus on EU and German ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment release, which is expected to decline: from –16.1 to –18.0 points in Germany and from 12.6 to –13.2 points in EU. The growth of pessimism is due to EU, China and the USA trade conflict.

Support and resistance

The price grew above 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) and can move to 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]), tested in May. A breakdown of the middle line of Bollinger bands around 1.1650 will let the price return to 1.1540. Indicators’ readings are ambiguous. Stochastic reverses in the overbought zone. MACD histogram is ready to enter the positive zone and form a buy signal.
Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1962.
Support levels: 1.1718, 1.1650, 1.1540.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from 1.1780 with the target at 1.1840 and stop loss at the level of 1.1740.
Short positions can be opened below 1.1650 with the target at 1.1540 and the stop loss around 1.1690.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.

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Old Jul 11, 2018, 11:43am   #607
 
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Joined Apr 2009
LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review


Current trend

At the beginning of the week, the pair sharply corrected to the area of 1.3183 (Murrey [4/8]), as a result of permutations in the British government.
Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson left office. They protested against the new plan by Theresa May, according to which a free trade area with uniform rules for industrial and agricultural goods, subject to European trade rules, should be established between the EU and Great Britain.
Currently, the pair has ambiguous dynamics. GBP is under pressure by weak statistics on the volume of industrial production. The value of the indicator YoY grew by 0.8% with the forecast of 1.9%, and MoM it dropped by 0.4%.
USD is under pressure after the US administration announced plans to introduce a new 10% duty on Chinese goods totaling USD 200B, which may enter into force on August 30. The Chinese authorities called this step of the US totally unacceptable and threatened with retaliatory measures and proceedings within the WTO.

Support and resistance

The price is testing the level of 1.3244 (Murrey [5/8]), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of price growth to 1.3183 (Murrey [4/8]), 1.3122 (Murrey [3/8]). The key for the "bulls" is the level of 1.3305 (Murrey [6/8]). If it is broken out, the growth to 1.3366 (Murrey [7/8]) and 1.3427 (Murrey [8/8]) is possible.
Technical indicators show the decline development. Stochastic has reversed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone.
Support levels: 1.3244, 1.3183, 1.3122.
Resistance levels: 1.3305, 1.3366.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened below 1.3244 with targets at 1.3183, 1.3122 and stop-loss at 1.3280.
Buy positions can be opened above the level of 1.3305 with target at 1.3366, 1.3427 and stop-loss at 1.3260.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.

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Old Jul 12, 2018, 10:24am   #608
 
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LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: general analysis


Current trend

This week the pair was growing, and by now it has reached the level of 112.40. The investors are focused on the US-China trade war. The government of Japan, represented by Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, has already expressed concern about its escalation. China and the United States are the largest trading partners of the country, and last year the export of Japanese goods in these directions amounted to $300 billion. The decline in the economic growth of the US and China could affect Japanese exporters negatively. According to experts, the consequences of the trade war are likely to come in the next year, and the country's economy may lose 0.6%.
On Thursday, investors are waiting for the publication of June inflation data in the US. It is expected that the Consumer Price Index (YoY) may reach 2.9%, and Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) will reach 2.3%. Thus, the basic indicator of inflation may remain above the target level (2.0%) for the fourth consecutive month. However, despite good economic results, FOMC members can reduce the number of rate increases this year, primarily due to the deepening trade US-China crisis.

Support and resistance

The price is now reaching the level of 112.50 (the upper border of the Murrey range [8/8]), where a reversal and correction to the levels 111.72 (Murrey [7/8]) and 110.93 (Murrey [6/8]) are possible. The price breaking the upper line of Bollinger bands and Stochastic entering the overbought zone confirm the forecast. The further growth is possible only if the price consolidates above the level of 112.50, in this case, the “bullish” targets will be 114.06 (Murrey [+2/8]).
Resistance levels: 112.50, 114.06.
Support levels: 111.72, 110.93, 110.15.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level of 112.50 with the targets at 111.72, 110.93 and stop loss at the level of 112.80.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 113.00 with the target at 114.06 and stop loss around 112.70.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.

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Old Jul 16, 2018, 1:33pm   #609
 
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Joined Apr 2009
LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Last week, the pair was trading near the level of 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]), but could not get away from it significantly.
This week, investors are waiting for a number of key events, mainly, for the Fed's head Jerome Powell Congress speeches, which will be held on Tuesday and Wednesday. Probably, they will be about monetary policy in the face of the complications of trade relations between China, the EU, and the USA. On the one hand, the inflation reaching the target level and a stable labor market push the regulator to raise rates. On the other hand, trade wars make the future of the American economy vague. Recently, representatives of the FRB of St. Louis noted that the reciprocal trade duties could lead to job losses and the shutdown of production in several US states. In these circumstances, the Fed may well begin to be cautious in monetary policy.

Support and resistance

Now, the instrument is testing the level of 1.1718 and, after consolidating above it, can continue rising to 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]). This is confirmed by Stochastic, which is reversing upwards, as well as negative forecasts of the retail sales indicator, which will be published today (it is expected to decrease from 0.8% to 0.5%). The level of 1.1650 (the center line of Bollinger Bands) is seen as key for the "bears". Its breakdown will give a prospect of a return to 1.1530 (the bottom line of Bollinger Bands).
Support levels: 1.1650, 1.1530.
Resistance levels: 1.1718, 1.1840, 1.1962.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened from the level of 1.1718 with the target at 1.1840 and stop loss at 1.1680.
Sell positions may be opened below 1.1650 with the target at 1.1530 and stop loss at 1.1690.
Implementation time: 3-5 days.

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