Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque

This is a discussion on Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque within the Daily Analysis forums, part of the Commercial category; Put Options Favorable for Gas Futures As Bears Gain Momentum Natural gas futures fell on Thursday, dragging the price to ...

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Old Jul 30, 2015, 7:43am   #1
Joined Jul 2015
Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque

Put Options Favorable for Gas Futures As Bears Gain Momentum

Natural gas futures fell on Thursday, dragging the price to less than 2.900 after retesting the historic channel resistance area following the announcement of US monetary policy. The technical bias remains bearish due to a Lower Low and Lower High in the ongoing wave.

Technical Analysis

As of this writing, the gas futures are being traded around 2.85. A support may be noted 2.82, the 38.2% fib level ahead of 2.78, the 50% fib level and then 2.71, the confluence of 76,4% fib level as well as channel support as demonstrated in the following four-hour chart.

Click the image to open in full size.

On the upside, the futures are expected to face a hurdle near 2.89, the intraday high of today as well as channel resistance ahead of 2.93, the swing high of the last major upside rally. The technical bias will remain bearish as long as the 2.91 resistance area is intact.

Fed Monetary Policy

The US central bank Federal Reserve on Wednesday left its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero—for the 2,417th straight day—but dropped several hints after a two-day policy meeting that it is near seeing enough improvement in the job market to prompt officials to raise the rate as early as September. At the same time, the Fed flagged nagging concerns in its postmeeting statement that inflation remains too low, which is making officials hesitant on the timing for liftoff and inclined to raising rates very gradually after the first increase. The overall tone was taken as slightly dovish by the investors which is bullish for gas futures in the long run.

Binary Options Trade Idea

Considering the overall technical and fundamental outlook, buying the put options for gas futures appears to be a good strategy in short to medium term.
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Old Jul 31, 2015, 7:50am   #2
Joined Jul 2015
Call Options Preferable In EURUSD As Channel Support Weighs

Option_Banque started this thread
Click the image to open in full size.
The price of EURUSD inched lower on Friday, for the fourth consecutive day, to less than 1.1000 before the release of Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for the month of July. The technical bias is bearish because of LL and LH in the previous wave on daily timeframe. The pair is expected to hold range till the release of CPI report

At the moment, the pair is being traded around 1.0945. It is expected to face a hurdle near 1.0990, the 50% fib level ahead of 1.1074, the channel resistance and then 1.1100, the confluence of psychological number as well as 38.2% fib level. The technical bias will remain bearish as long as the 1.1128 resistance area is intact.

Click the image to open in full size.

On the downside, a support may be noted near 1.0877, the 61.8% fib level ahead of 1.0817, the channel support as demonstrated in the following daily chart. A break and daily closing below the channel support could incite renewed selling pressure, validating a dip towards the 1.0000, the parity level.

In next few hours, the EuroStat is due to release the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July today. It is considered a main gauge for inflation. According to the median projection of different economists, the CPI remained 0.2% in July as compared to the same inflation in the same month of the year before. Generally speaking, higher inflation figure is considered positive for the economy thus a worse than expected actual outcome will be seen as bearish for EURUSD and vice versa.

Binary Options Trade Idea

Keeping the technical and fundamental analysis in view, buying the call options of the pair near channel support appears to be a good strategy.
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Old Aug 3, 2015, 7:13am   #3
Joined Jul 2015
USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY Weekly Technical Analysis: 3 Aug to 7 Aug

Option_Banque started this thread USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

Despite the fact that bearish attempts caused the support levels at 0.9550 to be tested a few times last week, USDCHF was able to maintain its bullishness. Since the support level at 0.9550 has become a strong barrier to bearish effort, it would be safe to assume that the bullish outlook on the pair will remain valid as long as price is able to stay above that support level.

Click the image to open in full size.

The resistance level at 0.9700 is also a big challenge to bulls, for price could not break above it last week in spite of sincere effort by the bulls. A break above that resistance level would thus result in a smooth continuation of the extant bullish trend. The outlook would go bearish as soon as the support level at 0.9550 is breached to the downside.

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Neutral

Cable has not been able to go below the accumulation territory at 1.5450 or go above the distribution territory at 1.5650 for weeks; therefore, the accumulation territory at 1.5450 and the distribution territory at 1.5650 could serve as boundaries for short-term swing trades.

Click the image to open in full size.

In this week or next, price could move out of these boundaries, thereby giving way to a serious directional movement. In this month, GBP (and other GBP pairs) would most probably be weak in most cases, though there could be occasional bullish attempts on the way.

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral

This currency trading instrument has been moving sideways since the middle of July 2015. A break above the supply level at 124.50 could result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and a break below the demand level 123.00 could also result in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

Click the image to open in full size.

This month, it is highly possible that Yen would gain lots of strength, thus causing JPY pairs to tumble. The strength in the Yen may start before the end of this week, and therefore, it is possible that USDJPY will go below the supply levels at 123.00 and 122.00 this week or next week.
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Old Aug 4, 2015, 7:25am   #4
Joined Jul 2015
Option_Banque started this thread
Gold, Silver Look Vulnerable In The Long Run

GOLD

Gold fell by over 8000 points last month, testing the support level at 1084.90 before experiencing a pause in the bearish momentum. Price dived significantly, reaching the monthly low of 108.90 on July 24, 2015. Then it started moving sideways for the rest of the month. The bias on the market remains bearish, and when a breakout does occur, it is more likely to be to the downside.

Click the image to open in full size.

The support levels at 1075.00, 1065.00 and 1050.00 could thus be tested this month. On the other hands, bullish attempts could force price to foray into the resistance levels at 1115.50 and 1125.50 – which are supposed to halt further northward attempts. Any movement above these resistance levels would mean the bearish bias could be over.

SILVER

Just like Gold, Silver also trended downwards in July 2015. However, price has been ranging in the last two weeks, showing that there would soon be a significant breakout in the market. When the breakout happens, it would be to the downside (just in favor of the extant bias), making price to test the accumulation territories at 14.3100 and 13.5000.

Click the image to open in full size.

Should price go above the distribution territories at 15.2000 and 16.5000, it could result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern, thereby rendering the bearish outlook invalid.

Binary Options Trade Idea

Considering the overall technical analysis, buying put options of precious metals on rallies around key resistance levels could be a good strategy for gold and silver digital options, range options and touch options. Gold and silver turbo options may also be traded near the above mentioned critical resistance levels for optimum return.
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Old Aug 5, 2015, 7:19am   #5
Joined Jul 2015
Put Options Favorable For USDCHF Amid Overbought Sentiment

Option_Banque started this thread The price of USDCHF rose on Wednesday for the third day in a row, to more than 0.9775 after the release of some upbeat economic reports. The technical sentiment is bullish because of a Higher High and High Low in the ongoing wave on daily chart.

As of this writing, the pair is being traded around 0.9779. It is likely to find a support around 0.9677, the 76.4% fib level ahead of 0.9561, the 61.8% fib level and then 0.9467, the 50% fib level. The technical bias will continue to be bullish as long as the 0.9150 support area is intact.

Click the image to open in full size.

On the upside, A hurdle may be noted around 0.9800, the psychological number ahead of 0.9864, the swing high of the last major upside rally as demonstrated in the following daily chart.

New orders for U.S. factory goods rebounded strongly in June on robust demand for transportation equipment and other goods, a hopeful sign for the struggling manufacturing sector.

The Commerce Department said on Tuesday new orders for manufactured goods increased 1.8 percent after declining 1.1 percent in May.

The Commerce Department also said orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft – seen as a measure of business confidence and spending plans – increased 0.7 percent instead of the 0.9 percent rise reported last month.

Meanwhile manufacturing inventories increased a solid 0.6 percent, which was more than the government assumed in its second-quarter GDP snapshot published last week.

Binary Options Trade Idea

Considering the overall technical and fundamental outlook, buying the put options for USDCHF appears to be a good strategy in short to medium term.
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Old Aug 6, 2015, 7:27am   #6
Joined Jul 2015
Buying Put Options Near 125.90 Still Preferable In USDJPY

Option_Banque started this thread The US Dollar (USD) extended upside movement against the Japanese Yen (JPY) yesterday, increasing the price of USDJPY to more than 124.50 ahead of some key economic events. The technical bias remains bullish due to a Higher Low (HL) in the ongoing wave on daily chart.

Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair is being traded at a fresh weekly high of 124.70, still shy from the top of its latest range around 125.89. The USD/JPY has been trading uneventfully since mid last week, and for the most indifferent to macroeconomic data, something quite usual in the preceding days of the release of the US Nonfarm Payroll report.

Click the image to open in full size.

Yesterday Bank of Japan’s Kuroda said that the Central Bank sees no need for further monetary stimulus at the moment as they expect inflation to meet its target by the first quarter of 2016, which gave some limited support to the JPY that anyway was unable to advance firmly against its American rival.

Talking about short term, the one-hour chart shows that the price is finally advancing above a bullish 100 SMA after being stuck around it since the week started, whilst the technical indicators head north above their mid-lines, supporting a test of the mentioned resistance level.

In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture is also bullish, as the technical indicators have managed to recover above their mid-lines and head north in positive territory, although cautious is advice, as the pair will have a hard time breaking higher before Friday.

Binary Options Trade Idea

Considering the overall technical and fundamental outlook, buying the put options near the swing high of the last major upside rally could be a good strategy in short to medium term.
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Old Aug 7, 2015, 8:13am   #7
Joined Jul 2015
Is This A Time To Buy GBPUSD Call Options?

Option_Banque started this thread The GBP/USD pair recovered from the yesterday’s low set at 1.5466, with the Pound recovering ground, despite the US rate hike optimism and UK service sector data which resulted worse-than-expected.

As of this writing, the pair is being traded at 1.5515. A major support may be noted near 1.5329, the swing low of the last major dip on daily chart as demonstrated in the following chart. The technical bias will remain bullish as long as the 1.5329 support area is intact.

Click the image to open in full size.

The 1 hour chart shows that the price is holding above a bullish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators are losing their upward strength near overbought territory.

In the 4 hours chart, the pair is now above a horizontal 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator is crossing its mid-line towards the upside, showing no actual strength at the time being, but enough to keep the downside limited around the strong static support placed at 1.5456.

The Markit Services PMI fell to 57.4 in July from 58.5 in June, although the most disturbing reading was the employment sub-component showing that hiring hit a 16-month low.

Today the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is due to release the Nonfarm Payrolls during the early New York session. The U.S economy is expected to have added 223,000 nonfarm payrolls in July, enough to allow the Fed to pull the trigger on its first rate hike in nine years. The Fed will consider a possible first rate hike at its Sept. 16 and 17 meeting, but economists say that even with a strong report, it is far from clear cut when the Fed will move off of the zero fed funds target rate it has had in place since late 2008.

Binary Options Trade Idea

Considering the overall technical and fundamental outlook, buying the calls options in cable appears to be a good strategy in short to medium term.
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Old Aug 10, 2015, 7:54am   #8
Joined Jul 2015
Dollar Halts Rally Against Swiss Franc As Overbought Sentiment Prevails

Option_Banque started this thread The US Dollar (USD) continued downside movement against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Monday, dragging the price of USDCHF to less than 0.9850 following the Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. The technical bias remains bullish due to a Higher High and Higher Low in the ongoing wave on daily chart.

As of this writing, the pair is being traded around 0.9831. A hurdle may be noted near 0.9850, the psychological number ahead of 0.9860, the swing high of Friday as demonstrated in the following daily chart.

Click the image to open in full size.

On the downside, the pair is expected to find a support around 0.9700, the psychological number ahead of 0.9674, the 76.4% fib level and then 0.9558, the 61.8% fib level. The technical bias will remain bullish as long as the 0.9524 support area is intact.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. The report showed that the U.S. gained 215,000 jobs in July, largely matching expectations, and the unemployment rate stayed pat at 5.3%. The solid employment data offers little reason to upend Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s plan to lift rates, possibly at the next two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which begins on Sept. 16.

Generally speaking, an increase in the benchmark interest rate is seen as positive for the US Dollar (USD) and vice versa thus expectations about interest rate hike spurred bullish momentum in the price of USDCHF and other dollar pairs across the board.

Binary Options Trade Idea

Considering the overall technical and fundamental outlook, buying the put option of USDCHF around 0.9860 appears to be a good strategy in short to medium term if we get a bearish pin bar or bearish engulfing candle on daily chart.
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