Forex Market Commentary By TitanFX

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Old Apr 13, 2015, 1:45pm   #1
Joined Apr 2015
Forex Market Commentary By TitanFX

Key Highlights
• Euro’s slide against the British pound gained pace as sellers managed to take it lower.
• EURGBP tested the 0.7200 support area where buyers just managed to protect the downside.
• Today, in the Euro zone the Portugal Consumer Price Index was released by Statistics Portugal, which posted a rise of 1.9% in March 2015, compared to the preceding month.

Technical Analysis
The Euro earlier today gained a few bids and traded higher to test the 0.7270 level against the British pound. In the process, the EURGBP pair also cleared an important channel resistance trend line on the hourly chary as well. However, it turned out to be a false break and ignited and a lot of selling interest was seen around the 100 hourly simple moving average.

Click the image to open in full size.

As a result, the pair dived sharply and tested the channel support trend line, which somehow managed to hold the downside. There is no denial that the shared currency is under bearish pressure, as it was also seen trading lower against the US dollar.

If the EURGBP pair manages to correct higher from the current levels, then initial hurdle can be seen around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7269 high to 0.7202 low.

Moving ahead
EURGBP has a major support at 0.7200, which if breached might open the doors for more downsides.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
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Old Apr 16, 2015, 5:50pm   #2
Joined Apr 2015
USD - Housing Starts Report Ignited Bearish Pressure

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• US dollar was seen under pressure against more major currencies as the US housing starts data missed the forecast.
• US Housing Starts released by the US Census Bureau, at the Department of Commerce registered a reading of 0.926M in March 2015, compared to the preceding month and the forecast was lined up for 1.040M.
• US Initial Jobless Claims was also released by the US Department of Labor, which came in at 294K up from the last revised reading of 282K.
• EURUSD gained heavily during the start of the NY session, but later retreated from the highs.

US Initial Jobless Claims
Earlier during the NY session, there was a critical release lined up in the US, as the Initial Jobless Claims was released by the US Department of Labor. The market was expecting almost no change in the initial jobless claims in the week ending April 11 per the advance figure for seasonally adjusted. However, the outcome was well below the forecast, as the US Initial Jobless Claims increased sharply by 12K to 294K from the last revised reading of 282K.

Technical Analysis
The US dollar index was seen testing an important support around the 97.80 level, which was acting as a barrier. There was a strong downside reaction noticed, as the US dollar index fell lower and even breached the 200 hourly moving average to ignite pressure on the US dollar.

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Apr 22, 2015, 5:49pm   #3
Joined Apr 2015
Dollar Might Gain As Existing Home Sales Exceeded Expectation

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• US dollar traded higher during the NY session, as the US Existing Home Sales report showed decent gains.
• US Existing Home Sales Change, which was released by the National Association of Realtors registered a rise of 6.1% in March 2015, compared to the preceding month.
• USDCAD managed to hold gains and might trade higher in the short term.

US Existing Home Sales
Earlier during the NY session, there was a major release scheduled in the US i.e. the Existing Home Sales report which helps in estimating the value of housing market conditions and a sensitive factor to the US economy was released by the National Association of Realtors. The market was expecting a nice gain in the Existing Home Sales in March 2015, compared to Feb 2015. The end result was above the forecast, as the US Existing Home Sales climbed by more than 6% to 5.19M whereas the market was expecting 5.03M. When we consider the yearly change, then the Existing Home Sales rose by 10.4% in March 2015, compared to the same month a year ago.

Click the image to open in full size.

Technical Analysis
The US dollar continued to find support around an important bullish trend line on the hourly chart against the Canadian dollar. The USDCAD pair recently fell towards the highlighted trend line, which is aligned with the 100 hourly moving average where it found buyers. It moved higher, but struggled to break the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.2304 high to 1.2209 low.

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Old Apr 29, 2015, 4:50pm   #4
Joined Apr 2015
US Dollar Crushed Post Disappointing GDP Report

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• US dollar moved sharply lower against a basket of currencies, as the US GDP came below the expectation.
• US Gross Domestic Product Annualized reading was 0.2% in the first quarter of 2015, which was a lot lower compared with the expectation of a 1.1% increase.
• US Gross Domestic Product Price Index decreased by 0.1% in Q1 2015, compared to the forecast of a 0.4% rise.
• US Pending Home Sales released by the National Association of Realtors increased by 1.1% in March 2015, which was a bit lower compared to the previous gain of 3.1%.

US GDP
Today, there was a monster release scheduled in the US, as the Gross Domestic Product representing the monetary value of all the goods and services was released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The expectation was not on the higher side, but still the US GDP missed the mark and gained by only 0.2% in Q1 2015, compared to Q4 2014. The forecast was lined up for a 0.4% increase and the previous gain was 2.2%.

Technical Analysis
The USDCAD fell sharply after the US GDP release, as the US dollar was under pressure. There was a sliding channel on the 4-hour chart of the USDCAD pair, which was breached during the slide. However, after the break, the pair stalled around the 1.618 extension of the last leg from the 1.2305 high to 1.2086 low.

Click the image to open in full size.

A break below the recent low of 1.1951 might call for more losses towards the 1.1900 support area.

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Old May 6, 2015, 4:54pm   #5
Joined Apr 2015
USDCAD – US ADP Report Disappoints; Dollar Down

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• USDCAD dropped during the American session, as the Canadian Dollar got support from upbeat domestic data and disappointing ADP report.
• Canadian Ivey PMI released by the Richard Ivey School of Business posted an increase from 47.9 to 58.2 in April 2015.
• In the US, the ADP Employment Change released by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc. posted a reading of 169K, compared with the forecast of 200K.

US ADP Employment Change
There was a crucial release in the US during the American session, as the ADP Employment Change, which measures the change in the number of employed people in the US was reported by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc. The result was disappointing, as the ADP Employment Change i.e. Private-sector employment increased by 169K from March to April, on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas the market was expecting a gain of 200K.

Click the image to open in full size.

The outcome weighed on the US Dollar, and the greenback was seen struggling against most major currencies, including the Canadian Dollar.

USDCAD - Technical Analysis
As mentioned, the USDCAD pair traded lower and registered a new intraday low of 1.1940. There is a bearish trend line on the hourly chart of the pair, which acted as a barrier recently and ignited a downside reaction.

The pair is now settled well below the 100 and 200 simple moving averages. If it corrects higher from here, then initial resistance can be seen around the 38.2% Fib retracement level of 1.2130-1.1940. The most important one is around 50% Fib, which is just around the highlighted trend line.

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Old May 13, 2015, 5:57pm   #6
Joined Apr 2015
US Retail Sales Miss Pushes GOLD Higher

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• US Dollar traded lower after the US Retail Sales report came below the forecast.
• US Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau posted no change in April 2015, compared to the forecast of a 0.2% increase.
• US Core Retail Sales increased by 0.1% in April, compared to the preceding month.

US Retail Sales
The US Retail Sales report, which measures the total receipts of retail stores was released by the US Census Bureau. The market was expecting an increase of 0.2% rise in April 2015, compared to the preceding month. However, the outcome was below the forecast, as the US retail sales remained flat this past month.

GOLD - Technical Analysis
GOLD enjoyed a nice bullish run after the US Retail Sales report was released. It was already trading with a positive tone, and after disappointing data buyers got one more reason to take it higher. There were a couple of bearish trend lines on the hourly chart of GOLD, which were breached recently by buyers.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is testing an important resistance area around $1210, which might act as a barrier for buyers. The hourly RSI is around the overbought level, which suggests that GOLD might correct a bit from the current levels.

The most critical support on the downside is around the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the $1178 low to $1218 high. The mentioned fib level is also coinciding with the broken trend lines. In short, there is a monster support around $1200.

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Old May 20, 2015, 4:40pm   #7
Joined Apr 2015
Dollar Eyes FOMC for the Next Leg

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• US Dollar gained heavily recently against most major currencies, including the Canadian Dollar.
• US Dollar bulls await the FOMC meeting minutes, which will be published later today.
• Canadian Wholesale Sales released by the Statistics Canada increased by 0.8% in March 2015, compared to the forecast of 0.9%.

USDCAD - Technical Analysis
The US Dollar rocketed higher against the Canadian Dollar to test the 1.2250 resistance, which represents a major resistance for the pair. The most critical point is that the 200 simple moving average on the 4-hours chart is aligned around the same area. Earlier, there was a bearish trend line formed, which was breached by buyers to take the USDCAD pair higher.

Click the image to open in full size.

However, there is a chance that the pair might correct lower in the coming sessions. In that situation, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.1918 low to 1.2249 high might be tested.

On the upside, a break above 1.2250 could push USDCAD towards 1.2300.

FOMC Meeting Minutes
In the USD, there is a major event lined up, as the Federal Open Market Committee Minutes will be released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. It has the potential to ignite moves in the US Dollar, and it would be interesting to see how the greenback reacts around the event.

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Old May 27, 2015, 5:41pm   #8
Joined Apr 2015
EURCHF Slow and Steady Downtrend

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• Euro is following a nice downtrend against the Swiss Franc, which is likely to continue in the short term.
• German GFK Consumer Confidence released earlier today posted a rise to 10.2 from 10.1 in May.
• Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator posted a decline from the last revised reading of 1.34 to 1.25 in April 2015.

Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator
In Switzerland, the UBS Consumption Indicator was published, which was on the lower side. The indicator declined from 1.34 to 1.25 in April 2015. Moreover, the last reading was revised to 1.34 from 1.35.

EURCHF – Technical Analysis
The Euro continued to move lower against the Swiss franc after it failed to break the 1.0400 resistance area. There is a nice bearish path followed by the EURCHF pair, which might take it further lower in the near term. There is also a resistance trend line formed on the 4-hours chart, which could act as a barrier if the pair corrects higher from the current levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

An initial hurdle is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.0450 high to 1.0316 low, followed by one more minor bearish trend line. On the downside, a break below 1.0316 might call for more losses in EURCHF.

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Old Jun 3, 2015, 4:07pm   #9
Joined Apr 2015
USDCHF Remains as Risk of Declines

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• US Dollar struggled during the past couple of sessions against currencies such as the Euro and the Swiss Franc.
• USDCHF is trading lower with support at 0.9300, which if breached might ignite more losses.
• US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by Markit Economics posted a decline from the last reading of 56.4 to 56.2 in May 2015.

US Services PMI
Earlier during the NY session, the US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), pointing business conditions in the services sector was released by Markit Economics. The forecast was lined up for an increase from the last reading of 56.4 to 56.5 in May 2015. However, the outcome was a bit on the lower side, as US Services Purchasing Managers Index registered a decline to 56.2.

The report stated that Business activity continued to improve across the U.S. service sector in May. However, the latest report suggests that there is a slight loss of momentum since the previous month. On the other end, the incoming new work and service providers were on the better side, and added to their payroll numbers at a robust pace. There was one negative to note, as the Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index declined to 56.1 in May, lower compared with 57.0 in April.

Click the image to open in full size.

Commenting on the report, the chief economist at Markit, Chris Williamson, stated that “The US economy looks to have grown at a healthy pace in May, providing further evidence that the rate of expansion has picked up from the weak start to the year”.

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Old Jun 9, 2015, 4:27am   #10
Joined Apr 2015
AUDUSD Primed For Lift-off

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• US Dollar weakness pushed pairs like AUDUSD and NZDUSD higher.
• AUDUSD traded higher and settled above the 200 moving average (hourly) to set the pace for the next leg.
• Australian Home Loans released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics increased by 1% in April 2015 whereas the market was expecting a decline of 2%.
• Chinese Consumer Price Index is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China registered a decline of 0.2% in May 2015, compared with the forecast of no change.

AUDUSD – Technical Analysis
The Aussie Dollar was seen taking advantage of the US Dollar weakness and traded higher. There was a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of AUDUSD, which was colliding with the 200 hourly simple moving average. The highlighted trend line was broken by buyers, and pushed the pair towards the 100 MA where it found sellers.

Click the image to open in full size.

If the pair settles above the 100 MA, the chances of it trading towards 0.7750 might increase. On the downside, the 200 MA could act as a support in the near term.

Australian Home Loans
Earlier during the Asian session, there were a couple of important releases lined up, including the Australian Home Loans, representing the number of home loans published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The forecast was lined up for a decline of 2% in April 2015, compared with the preceding month in which it rose by 1.5% (revised). However, the outcome was better-than-expected, as the Australian Home Loans managed to increase by 2%.

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Old Jun 12, 2015, 3:58am   #11
Joined Apr 2015
GBPUSD Defies Gravity, Looks to Trade Higher

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• British Pound traded higher Intraday against the US Dollar, and broke a critical resistance area.
• GBPUSD is facing a major resistance on the upside around 1.5550 where sellers might struggle in the near term.
• In New Zealand, the Business NZ PMI released by the Business NZ posted a minor decrease from the previous revised reading of 51.7 to 51.5 in April 2015.

GBPUSD – Technical Analysis
The GBPUSD pair after setting a short-term top moved lower and fell back towards an important broken bearish trend line on the hourly chart, which acted as a support to the pair. The highlighted trend line was coinciding with the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.5256 low to 1.5553 high. In short, the pair found support around the mentioned Fib level and currently moving back higher.

Click the image to open in full size.

However, there is a major resistance on the upside around the last swing high of 1.5550 where buyers might continue to struggle. A break above the stated resistance area could clear the way for a move towards 1.5600.

On the downside, there are many support areas, starting with the broken trend line, 50% Fib retracement level of the 100 hourly simple moving average. So, buyers have many reasons to take the pair higher moving ahead.

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Old Jun 16, 2015, 3:59pm   #12
Joined Apr 2015
GBP/USD Rallies Post a Flurry of Economic Releases

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• British Pound gained heavy bids Intraday against the US dollar, and traded above 1.5600.
• UK Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics increased by 0.1% in May 2015, compared with the same month a year ago.
• UK Core Consumer Price Index rose by 0.9% in May 2015, compared with May 2014.
• Producer Price Index Input decreased by 0.9% in May 2015, compared with the preceding month.
• US Housing Starts released by the US Census Bureau, at the Department of Commerce came in at 1.036M in April whereas the forecast was of 1.100M.

UK CPI
Earlier during the London session, the UK Consumer Price Index, which measures the price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services was released by the National Statistics. The forecast was of a 0.1% increase in May 2015, compared to the same month a year ago. The outcome was in line with the forecast, as the UK CPI came in at 0.1%.

Click the image to open in full size.

In terms of the monthly change, the UK CPI rose by 0.2% in May 2015, compared to the preceding month, which was also in line with the forecast. The report stated that the “largest upward contribution to the change came from transport services, notably air fares with the timing of Easter in April a likely factor in the movement. There were also significant upward effects from food and motor fuels”.

Moreover, UK Core Consumer Price missed the mark, as the forecast was +1% May 2015, compared to the same month a year ago. However, the result was lower, as the UK Core CPI increased 0.9%.

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Old Jun 23, 2015, 4:10am   #13
Joined Apr 2015
AUDJPY at Critical Turning Point

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• Aussie Dollar is testing an important support area against the Japanese Yen, which if broken might set the AUDJPY pair for more losses.
• Australian House Price Index released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted an increase of 1.6 % in the first quarter of 2015, compared with the forecast of +2.3%.
• In Japan, the Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI was released, which declined to 49.9 in June 2015, and posted a contraction.

AUDJPY Technical Analysis
The Aussie Dollar recently traded close to the 96.40-50 resistance area where it found sellers and traded lower versus the Japanese Yen. The downside drift was strong enough to take out the 100 and 200 simple moving average (4-hours), which can be seen as a bearish sign.

Click the image to open in full size.

There is a bullish trend line formed on the 4-hours chart, which managed to protect the losses. However, there is a major risk of a break below the trend line, as many negative signals pointing towards more declines in the pair moving ahead.

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Old Jun 30, 2015, 4:18am   #14
Joined Apr 2015
NZDJPY Might Attempt For a New Low

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• New Zealand Dollar continued to move lower against most major currencies, including the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen.
• NZDJPY looks like heading towards the last low of 82.83, and might create a new low moving ahead.
• New Zealand Building Permits figure released by the Statistics New Zealand posted no change in May 2015, compared with the preceding month.
• Business Confidence released by the ANZ came in at -2.3 in May 2015, compared with the last reading of 15.7.

NZDJPY Technical Analysis
The New Zealand Dollar recently traded above 84.00 against the Japanese Yen, but failed to trade above 84.20, as there is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of NZDUSD that prevented gains. Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 85.66 high to 82.30 low was also around the same trend line. Overall, there was a lot of bearish pressure visible on the NZDJPY pair, which increases the chances of it trading lower in the near term. The hourly RSI is well below the 50 level, signaling the fact that sellers are in control.

Click the image to open in full size.

Let us see whether the pair can correct higher or creates a new low moving ahead. On the upside, the highlighted trend line might continue to play an important role for more gains.

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Old Jul 3, 2015, 4:11am   #15
Joined Apr 2015
Can GOLD Gain Traction?

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• GOLD continued to fall this week and followed a nice downtrend despite Greece exit fears.
• HSBC China Services PMI™, released by Markit Economics posted a decline from the last reading of 53.5 to 51.8 in June 2015.
• In Australia, the Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics registered an increase of 0.3% in May 2015, compared with the preceding month.

GOLD Technical Analysis
GOLD after opening the week on a positive note declined, and followed a nice bearish trend. There are a couple of major resistance trend lines formed on the hourly chart, which are acting as a barrier for more gains. Every time buyers manage to take the price higher, they find sellers around the highlighted trend lines.

Click the image to open in full size.

Recently, the price tested the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the $1187 high to $1156 low. Currently, the price is around the highlighted resistance zone, which means there is a risk of a break higher in the near term. If there is one more failure to trade higher, then the possibility of it trading lower might escalate moving ahead. The hourly RSI has just moved above the 50 level, which is a positive sign.

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