Forex Market Commentary By TitanFX

This is a discussion on Forex Market Commentary By TitanFX within the Daily Analysis forums, part of the Commercial category; Key Highlights • Euro’s slide against the British pound gained pace as sellers managed to take it lower. • EURGBP ...

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Old Apr 13, 2015, 1:45pm   #1
Joined Apr 2015
Forex Market Commentary By TitanFX

Key Highlights
• Euro’s slide against the British pound gained pace as sellers managed to take it lower.
• EURGBP tested the 0.7200 support area where buyers just managed to protect the downside.
• Today, in the Euro zone the Portugal Consumer Price Index was released by Statistics Portugal, which posted a rise of 1.9% in March 2015, compared to the preceding month.

Technical Analysis
The Euro earlier today gained a few bids and traded higher to test the 0.7270 level against the British pound. In the process, the EURGBP pair also cleared an important channel resistance trend line on the hourly chary as well. However, it turned out to be a false break and ignited and a lot of selling interest was seen around the 100 hourly simple moving average.

Click the image to open in full size.

As a result, the pair dived sharply and tested the channel support trend line, which somehow managed to hold the downside. There is no denial that the shared currency is under bearish pressure, as it was also seen trading lower against the US dollar.

If the EURGBP pair manages to correct higher from the current levels, then initial hurdle can be seen around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7269 high to 0.7202 low.

Moving ahead
EURGBP has a major support at 0.7200, which if breached might open the doors for more downsides.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
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Old Apr 16, 2015, 5:50pm   #2
Joined Apr 2015
USD - Housing Starts Report Ignited Bearish Pressure

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• US dollar was seen under pressure against more major currencies as the US housing starts data missed the forecast.
• US Housing Starts released by the US Census Bureau, at the Department of Commerce registered a reading of 0.926M in March 2015, compared to the preceding month and the forecast was lined up for 1.040M.
• US Initial Jobless Claims was also released by the US Department of Labor, which came in at 294K up from the last revised reading of 282K.
• EURUSD gained heavily during the start of the NY session, but later retreated from the highs.

US Initial Jobless Claims
Earlier during the NY session, there was a critical release lined up in the US, as the Initial Jobless Claims was released by the US Department of Labor. The market was expecting almost no change in the initial jobless claims in the week ending April 11 per the advance figure for seasonally adjusted. However, the outcome was well below the forecast, as the US Initial Jobless Claims increased sharply by 12K to 294K from the last revised reading of 282K.

Technical Analysis
The US dollar index was seen testing an important support around the 97.80 level, which was acting as a barrier. There was a strong downside reaction noticed, as the US dollar index fell lower and even breached the 200 hourly moving average to ignite pressure on the US dollar.

Click the image to open in full size.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
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Old Apr 22, 2015, 5:49pm   #3
Joined Apr 2015
Dollar Might Gain As Existing Home Sales Exceeded Expectation

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• US dollar traded higher during the NY session, as the US Existing Home Sales report showed decent gains.
• US Existing Home Sales Change, which was released by the National Association of Realtors registered a rise of 6.1% in March 2015, compared to the preceding month.
• USDCAD managed to hold gains and might trade higher in the short term.

US Existing Home Sales
Earlier during the NY session, there was a major release scheduled in the US i.e. the Existing Home Sales report which helps in estimating the value of housing market conditions and a sensitive factor to the US economy was released by the National Association of Realtors. The market was expecting a nice gain in the Existing Home Sales in March 2015, compared to Feb 2015. The end result was above the forecast, as the US Existing Home Sales climbed by more than 6% to 5.19M whereas the market was expecting 5.03M. When we consider the yearly change, then the Existing Home Sales rose by 10.4% in March 2015, compared to the same month a year ago.

Click the image to open in full size.

Technical Analysis
The US dollar continued to find support around an important bullish trend line on the hourly chart against the Canadian dollar. The USDCAD pair recently fell towards the highlighted trend line, which is aligned with the 100 hourly moving average where it found buyers. It moved higher, but struggled to break the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.2304 high to 1.2209 low.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
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Old Apr 29, 2015, 4:50pm   #4
Joined Apr 2015
US Dollar Crushed Post Disappointing GDP Report

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• US dollar moved sharply lower against a basket of currencies, as the US GDP came below the expectation.
• US Gross Domestic Product Annualized reading was 0.2% in the first quarter of 2015, which was a lot lower compared with the expectation of a 1.1% increase.
• US Gross Domestic Product Price Index decreased by 0.1% in Q1 2015, compared to the forecast of a 0.4% rise.
• US Pending Home Sales released by the National Association of Realtors increased by 1.1% in March 2015, which was a bit lower compared to the previous gain of 3.1%.

US GDP
Today, there was a monster release scheduled in the US, as the Gross Domestic Product representing the monetary value of all the goods and services was released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The expectation was not on the higher side, but still the US GDP missed the mark and gained by only 0.2% in Q1 2015, compared to Q4 2014. The forecast was lined up for a 0.4% increase and the previous gain was 2.2%.

Technical Analysis
The USDCAD fell sharply after the US GDP release, as the US dollar was under pressure. There was a sliding channel on the 4-hour chart of the USDCAD pair, which was breached during the slide. However, after the break, the pair stalled around the 1.618 extension of the last leg from the 1.2305 high to 1.2086 low.

Click the image to open in full size.

A break below the recent low of 1.1951 might call for more losses towards the 1.1900 support area.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
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Old May 6, 2015, 4:54pm   #5
Joined Apr 2015
USDCAD – US ADP Report Disappoints; Dollar Down

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• USDCAD dropped during the American session, as the Canadian Dollar got support from upbeat domestic data and disappointing ADP report.
• Canadian Ivey PMI released by the Richard Ivey School of Business posted an increase from 47.9 to 58.2 in April 2015.
• In the US, the ADP Employment Change released by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc. posted a reading of 169K, compared with the forecast of 200K.

US ADP Employment Change
There was a crucial release in the US during the American session, as the ADP Employment Change, which measures the change in the number of employed people in the US was reported by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc. The result was disappointing, as the ADP Employment Change i.e. Private-sector employment increased by 169K from March to April, on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas the market was expecting a gain of 200K.

Click the image to open in full size.

The outcome weighed on the US Dollar, and the greenback was seen struggling against most major currencies, including the Canadian Dollar.

USDCAD - Technical Analysis
As mentioned, the USDCAD pair traded lower and registered a new intraday low of 1.1940. There is a bearish trend line on the hourly chart of the pair, which acted as a barrier recently and ignited a downside reaction.

The pair is now settled well below the 100 and 200 simple moving averages. If it corrects higher from here, then initial resistance can be seen around the 38.2% Fib retracement level of 1.2130-1.1940. The most important one is around 50% Fib, which is just around the highlighted trend line.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
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Old May 13, 2015, 5:57pm   #6
Joined Apr 2015
US Retail Sales Miss Pushes GOLD Higher

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• US Dollar traded lower after the US Retail Sales report came below the forecast.
• US Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau posted no change in April 2015, compared to the forecast of a 0.2% increase.
• US Core Retail Sales increased by 0.1% in April, compared to the preceding month.

US Retail Sales
The US Retail Sales report, which measures the total receipts of retail stores was released by the US Census Bureau. The market was expecting an increase of 0.2% rise in April 2015, compared to the preceding month. However, the outcome was below the forecast, as the US retail sales remained flat this past month.

GOLD - Technical Analysis
GOLD enjoyed a nice bullish run after the US Retail Sales report was released. It was already trading with a positive tone, and after disappointing data buyers got one more reason to take it higher. There were a couple of bearish trend lines on the hourly chart of GOLD, which were breached recently by buyers.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is testing an important resistance area around $1210, which might act as a barrier for buyers. The hourly RSI is around the overbought level, which suggests that GOLD might correct a bit from the current levels.

The most critical support on the downside is around the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the $1178 low to $1218 high. The mentioned fib level is also coinciding with the broken trend lines. In short, there is a monster support around $1200.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
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Old May 20, 2015, 4:40pm   #7
Joined Apr 2015
Dollar Eyes FOMC for the Next Leg

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• US Dollar gained heavily recently against most major currencies, including the Canadian Dollar.
• US Dollar bulls await the FOMC meeting minutes, which will be published later today.
• Canadian Wholesale Sales released by the Statistics Canada increased by 0.8% in March 2015, compared to the forecast of 0.9%.

USDCAD - Technical Analysis
The US Dollar rocketed higher against the Canadian Dollar to test the 1.2250 resistance, which represents a major resistance for the pair. The most critical point is that the 200 simple moving average on the 4-hours chart is aligned around the same area. Earlier, there was a bearish trend line formed, which was breached by buyers to take the USDCAD pair higher.

Click the image to open in full size.

However, there is a chance that the pair might correct lower in the coming sessions. In that situation, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.1918 low to 1.2249 high might be tested.

On the upside, a break above 1.2250 could push USDCAD towards 1.2300.

FOMC Meeting Minutes
In the USD, there is a major event lined up, as the Federal Open Market Committee Minutes will be released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. It has the potential to ignite moves in the US Dollar, and it would be interesting to see how the greenback reacts around the event.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
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Old May 27, 2015, 5:41pm   #8
Joined Apr 2015
EURCHF Slow and Steady Downtrend

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• Euro is following a nice downtrend against the Swiss Franc, which is likely to continue in the short term.
• German GFK Consumer Confidence released earlier today posted a rise to 10.2 from 10.1 in May.
• Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator posted a decline from the last revised reading of 1.34 to 1.25 in April 2015.

Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator
In Switzerland, the UBS Consumption Indicator was published, which was on the lower side. The indicator declined from 1.34 to 1.25 in April 2015. Moreover, the last reading was revised to 1.34 from 1.35.

EURCHF – Technical Analysis
The Euro continued to move lower against the Swiss franc after it failed to break the 1.0400 resistance area. There is a nice bearish path followed by the EURCHF pair, which might take it further lower in the near term. There is also a resistance trend line formed on the 4-hours chart, which could act as a barrier if the pair corrects higher from the current levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

An initial hurdle is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.0450 high to 1.0316 low, followed by one more minor bearish trend line. On the downside, a break below 1.0316 might call for more losses in EURCHF.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
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