Using spread/premium to trade near contract?

Hi Guys,

This thread is not about futures spread trading.

I am trying to study if the variation in premium (difference between deffered contract price and near contract price) has any bearing on or any indication of near contract price move.

Ofcourse this is only after using the general Technical Analysis using EMAs, Stichastic, MACD etc. and also using seasonal data.

If someone has already done some work please let me know.

e.g. If July coffee rise is higher than May coffee rise, what does that mean? Does that tell us anything ? such as demand of coffee is growing sine the deferred contract is rising higher.
Things like that.

I will be very grateful if someone has done this work and can guide me with the direction on analysing such data.

Thanks
Sam
UK