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I've decided to start this blog as a diary of my trades, successes and failures.
Reason for is to realise from my own mistakes of bad trades with a view to sharpen these up, this is for all to see.
All opens and closes will not be posted in live time but instead I will disclose all trades at the end of the week and will be verified with actual screenshots.
Targets for week ahead wil be given from all target markets and shall be broken down.
Target markets are Ftse100, Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIA) and S&P500.
Any targets not reached will have a reason attached, giving reasons for not hitting targets (this happens) and what went wrong (I make mistakes), however is no excuse.
The overall goal is to provide hope for new (and old) traders that may find it difficult to get into (or for some, get out) of bad habits in trading and hopefully provide inspiration that money can be made from the markets.
Steady and consistantly is the key.
My trading style is that of a long term view mainly using fundamentals but with a technical approach for entry and exits. Some contracts can be held for many weeks, sometimes months before realising profits and drawdowns are obviously part and parcel of the trading game.
Any one with a long term view should be able to make money simply by leaving the cash on the index over a long period of time(years), however, outside factors make it difficult for one to be truely successful due to contract expiry dates.
It is with my intention to not just beat the index gain for the year but at least look at a return 3 to 8 times higher than the average index gains against margin on account. (this will differ from spreadbetting to direct access).
Lee Shepherd
Reason for is to realise from my own mistakes of bad trades with a view to sharpen these up, this is for all to see.
All opens and closes will not be posted in live time but instead I will disclose all trades at the end of the week and will be verified with actual screenshots.
Targets for week ahead wil be given from all target markets and shall be broken down.
Target markets are Ftse100, Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIA) and S&P500.
Any targets not reached will have a reason attached, giving reasons for not hitting targets (this happens) and what went wrong (I make mistakes), however is no excuse.
The overall goal is to provide hope for new (and old) traders that may find it difficult to get into (or for some, get out) of bad habits in trading and hopefully provide inspiration that money can be made from the markets.
Steady and consistantly is the key.
My trading style is that of a long term view mainly using fundamentals but with a technical approach for entry and exits. Some contracts can be held for many weeks, sometimes months before realising profits and drawdowns are obviously part and parcel of the trading game.
Any one with a long term view should be able to make money simply by leaving the cash on the index over a long period of time(years), however, outside factors make it difficult for one to be truely successful due to contract expiry dates.
It is with my intention to not just beat the index gain for the year but at least look at a return 3 to 8 times higher than the average index gains against margin on account. (this will differ from spreadbetting to direct access).
Lee Shepherd
18th to 24th August 2008
Posted 23-08-2008 at 01:08 PM by Lee Shepherd
Market Comment:
Ftse closed at 5505 up +135 on week.
O.k, so we are here again, 5500 level. It broke down from here 2 weeks back so we will watch again and look for long positions on the light side. I will be aggressively trading above this level should it stick, the moment it goes below 5500 will then be traded out of to remain of the highest caution. Providing we can stick above this level for 5 straight sessions and close higher next week, will then become a high probability that it will turn into more of a support level as oppose to the resistance we've had from it. It's more than likely we still haven't seen the last of banking writedowns but I feel its fairly safe to say that the banks can't have much left to write off, they have to have some business at the end of the day and believe that we are now entering the last bad quarter before things start to pan out a little and bad news becomes not so bad news. Lets bear in mind here that the markets have priced in a good recession so, providing we see one, we should be trading around the lower end of 5000, if no recession then above 6000. It would seem that although things are bad, they are appearing not to be as bad as priced and are still on target to close the year between 5800 and 6200 as a trading range.
Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.
All trades are listed below for week 18-08-08 to 24-08-08.
Summary:
Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500
Targets for these markets:
Ftse Long = 50pts
Ftse Short = 60pts
S&P Long = 13pts
S&P Short = 13pts
Weekly target = Temporarily ceased
All targets can have a variation of 10%
Ftse x7 Long closed for +345pts (ave 49.28pts). Spot on target.
S&P x2 Long closed for +24.7pts (ave 12.35pts) Within target range.
Total for target markets is 9 contracts closed for +369.7pts
Due to being undertraded on positions as am awaiting confirmation on certain levels to trade more aggressive, some money was put into crude oil contracts to trade for the day only, a night shift was also taken on Thursday to trade the Nikkei225 futures along with closing down the crude contracts that were left over from the days trading. Crude was traded due to the dollar weakening sharply and the belief that it would strenghthen again the next day, also that the conflict with Russia V's Georgia was being taken advantage of to push oil higher by over $6 during the U.S session. A small bet was placed on this to trade Short from $122, as soon as confirmation was given to be on the down side then range trading took place to capture small up and down movements as can be seen by time and value of contracts on screenshot.
Crude oil (oct) Short =15 x win for +590pts
2 x losers for -106pts(minus) Total +484pts
Nikkei225 x2 Long = 1 win of +25pts and 1 loser for -85pts Totalling -60(minus)
Total for week = 28 contracts closed for +793.7pts
Next Week target for points will be (temporarily ceased until confirmation above 5500)
Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.
Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.
Good Luck for next week.
Lee Shepherd
Ftse closed at 5505 up +135 on week.
O.k, so we are here again, 5500 level. It broke down from here 2 weeks back so we will watch again and look for long positions on the light side. I will be aggressively trading above this level should it stick, the moment it goes below 5500 will then be traded out of to remain of the highest caution. Providing we can stick above this level for 5 straight sessions and close higher next week, will then become a high probability that it will turn into more of a support level as oppose to the resistance we've had from it. It's more than likely we still haven't seen the last of banking writedowns but I feel its fairly safe to say that the banks can't have much left to write off, they have to have some business at the end of the day and believe that we are now entering the last bad quarter before things start to pan out a little and bad news becomes not so bad news. Lets bear in mind here that the markets have priced in a good recession so, providing we see one, we should be trading around the lower end of 5000, if no recession then above 6000. It would seem that although things are bad, they are appearing not to be as bad as priced and are still on target to close the year between 5800 and 6200 as a trading range.
Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.
All trades are listed below for week 18-08-08 to 24-08-08.
Summary:
Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500
Targets for these markets:
Ftse Long = 50pts
Ftse Short = 60pts
S&P Long = 13pts
S&P Short = 13pts
Weekly target = Temporarily ceased
All targets can have a variation of 10%
Ftse x7 Long closed for +345pts (ave 49.28pts). Spot on target.
S&P x2 Long closed for +24.7pts (ave 12.35pts) Within target range.
Total for target markets is 9 contracts closed for +369.7pts
Due to being undertraded on positions as am awaiting confirmation on certain levels to trade more aggressive, some money was put into crude oil contracts to trade for the day only, a night shift was also taken on Thursday to trade the Nikkei225 futures along with closing down the crude contracts that were left over from the days trading. Crude was traded due to the dollar weakening sharply and the belief that it would strenghthen again the next day, also that the conflict with Russia V's Georgia was being taken advantage of to push oil higher by over $6 during the U.S session. A small bet was placed on this to trade Short from $122, as soon as confirmation was given to be on the down side then range trading took place to capture small up and down movements as can be seen by time and value of contracts on screenshot.
Crude oil (oct) Short =15 x win for +590pts
2 x losers for -106pts(minus) Total +484pts
Nikkei225 x2 Long = 1 win of +25pts and 1 loser for -85pts Totalling -60(minus)
Total for week = 28 contracts closed for +793.7pts
Next Week target for points will be (temporarily ceased until confirmation above 5500)
Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.
Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.
Good Luck for next week.
Lee Shepherd
Recent Blog Entries by Lee Shepherd
- A Current update 7th November 2008 (07-11-2008)
- 8th to 14th September 2008 (13-09-2008)
- 1st to 7th September 2008 (06-09-2008)
- 25th to 31st August 2008 (30-08-2008)
- 18th to 24th August 2008 (23-08-2008)
- Join Date Feb 2008
- Posts 1,488
- Blog Entries 25
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