The Yield Curve

We've just published a new T2W article called "The Yield Curve" by John Mauldin.

Quick Summary: A look at the Yield Curve and why it is said to be the most accurate forecast of recession.

PS. Don't forget to rate the article after you've read it and share your comments on this thread.

The last time I looked, which I admit is sometime ago now, the yield curve has been inverted for UK for at least a year, are we in a recession here now?

hmm. I enjoyed reading this article.

Whilst I understand the theoretical reasons why an inverted yield curve is not a good economic indicator, I would hardly say that there is a statistically significant sample of inverted curves producing recessions.

A "backtest" of less than ten examples is not conclusive proof in my books.

An interesting article on an unusual subject, enjoyed the insight.

Well written and clearly explained.

Definitely one of the better articles in the lab and I look forward to reading any further articles John Mauldin writes on this subject.

Another piece in the jigsaw of trading.

A good summary of the recent evidence. However it may interest some of the sceptics that there is evidence of the yield curve inverting before recessions going back to before 1900 - it's just that before the '60s the data is rather flaky so the academics won't use it.